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All our woes in a nutshell. Interest rates should really be increased to counter some of the outflows.


No Peace at Mines Exacerbates Risk: South Africa Credit

More than a year after South Africa’s worst mining violence since the end of apartheid, platinum mines are still striving to restore peace, a factor driving up the nation’s default risk faster than for emerging-market peers.

Current account and fiscal deficits, slower economic growth and the lowest interest rates in more than 30 years leave South Africa vulnerable to external shocks, Mphaphuli said. The nation needs average inflows of 16 billion rand ($1.6 billion) a month to finance the shortfall on its current account, according to Standard Bank Group Ltd. (SBK), Africa’s largest bank.

Foreign investors have sold a net 6.23 billion rand of bonds since May 22, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. may reduce monetary stimulus that has helped boost demand for emerging-market assets. Inflows have dropped to 24.8 billion rand this year, compared with 63.1 billion rand a year earlier, according to JSE Ltd., which runs the nation’s stock and bond exchanges.

We will trundle along as we have done under Zuma until he is retired, removed, gone. Big business are in limbo until clear economic policies are there to encourage growth coupled with a revision of the more onerous labour laws. Cut the red tape for small business & if possible get the stealing down to R10 billion per annum. Sorry to see Vavi plot his own downfall as this will embolden Zuma even more. Lets wait and see who emerges front & centre at the 2014 trough.
If Marcus does raise rates banks & credit retailers will be a screaming short.

A sane RBG should really see the need to raise rates. Our real rates are negative whereas in the US they are postive to the tune of nearly 3%.
That coupled with a weakening Rand, and 6.3% CPI (latest), and no one should be surprised that funds are being 'repatriated' to the US and to
a lesser extent to some Eurozone countries. An increase in rates would help to stem the ouflow and our JSE would not suffer unduly. ROE would
then also turn, but that depends on other variables as well, like the current account deficit and the points you have mentioned.
No gain without pain as they say at the gym.

Rand will be closer to R11/$ by year end - expert

and another take pro a stronger Rand.

Don’t write the rand off yet – economist

I'm not at all aware of the economy or financial situation in Turkey or India. So can't comment. Although India seems to be taking pain currency wise, possibly worse than the rand...? Brazil hosting the soccer world cup surely should give their economy a boost, correct me here or advise, is Turkey not joining the EU..? Do the respective countries that are mentioned in your post are their rulers in power by such a margin as the ANC.

Now that we are in an arena where economic stimulus is all around "Abe-nomics" being the most recent, the distinction between politics & central banks behaviour has been blurred where markets react to political appointments ( in the west that is ) who favour "loose" monetary policies & vise versa.

Should the HSBC report become reality it would be interesting to see if they attract a larger portion of foreign direct investment.

I haven't changed my view from my previous post on this thread. While strike season is in full swing it's only natural at present to be a little more pessimistic. I have changed my holdings slightly over the past 6mths to reflect the way I see things evolving in the mid term.

Marcus speaking out like she did & using the dialogue that she used was a slight to the official party line. I don't know if she could raise rates without some kind of approval from Lithuli House. The fact remains that there are so many people at risk of a rate hike as opposed to those that would benefit.

I hold shares in Net1 ueps check their SENS & company releases to see the true picture of beneficiaries of state welfare..!
Now I'm about to rant about youth wage subsidy / proposed national health thingy jiggy. 

South Africa to Take 20% Free Stake in New Oil Projects

“The first 20 percent will be the free carried part by the state,” Shabangu told reporters today in Pretoria, the capital. While the government will be able to increase its interest to 50 percent, it will have to acquire 30 percent at market-related prices, she said.

Changes to the law “may significantly impact on the ability of investors to continue exploration in South Africa,” Russ Berkoben, president of Exxon’s local unit, told lawmakers in Cape Town on Sept. 11. The government “is sending a message to investors that their high-risk investment will have a much lower reward.”

( Apologies for, more often than not, being the bearer of baaaad news ).

Buying and selling property is trading for revenue and will be treated as such.

The inclusion of trade data for Swaziland, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia (SACU member countries), has almost halved the
trade deficit, which includes the current account deficit. The timing is a mystery; why only now ?

Some see window-dressing in S. Africa data changes

Anyway that, and Janet Yellen are the reasons for the stronger Rand these past couple of days.

Quote from: Moonraker on November 16, 2013, 09:08:51 am

The inclusion of trade data for Swaziland, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia (SACU member countries), has almost halved the
trade deficit, which includes the current account deficit. The timing is a mystery; why only now ?

Some see window-dressing in S. Africa data changes

Anyway that, and Janet Yellen are the reasons for the stronger Rand these past couple of days.

You think the rand will increase in value or even plateau at this point in this year?When will it start to steadily strengthen?Hard to speculate ,right.Not even 24 hours after your comment the rand took a little dip after its peak.

Have a look at Sudden and severe tapering by the US Fed could crash the rand by Magnus Heystek
We will see a weaker Rand in 2014 - anything between 10.50 to 12.00 to the US$ depending on whether tapering is mild or severe.
I agree with Heystek on that. However I don't fully agree with his comments on listed property, due to the 7% average consensus prognosis
of distribution increases in 2014 (unlike with bonds where your yield is fixed). Maybe a 20% max. decline is what one could expect.
You should be in rand hedge stocks.
If you are living in, what was it, S. Korea ? - why bother with our market ?