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Author Topic: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)  (Read 28633 times)

Moonraker

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Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« on: January 16, 2014, 02:00:03 pm »
A fair number of analysts are now picking ADH for 2014, and the stock has jumped by about 12% since beginning Jan.2014.
It was sleeping for most of 2013, while COH retuned 70% in 2013, ADH returned 9.9% incl. dividends.
Curro of course seems grossly overvalued with a PE of over 200, and I personally would not want to buy at those levels.
ADH is currently on a PE of 20.
Is anybody invested in ADH, and if so what are your thoughts ?

One thing that baffles me, all those fancy new school buildings, especially with COH, but where do they get the teachers ?
Last I heard nobody is keen to be a teacher in ZA, quite understandable really. School buildings with all the latset equipment
mean nothing if the teachers are not up to it.


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Big E

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2014, 08:59:56 pm »
I would also like to hear. ....

I predict that you will see more and private schools, especially with the curriculums being adjusted to get pass results instead of quality education
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Bevan

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2014, 11:20:33 pm »
Buyer beware. A lot of people rushed out to buy African Bank based on Capitec's success. That ended in tears.

Curro is like an overvalued IT stock. People buy it because of potential. I also wonder how they are going to pay for decent teachers, buildings and the like. It should have the effect of driving up teacher salaries (which is a good thing in my book) but that means all those poor old government schools are going to suffer with the not-so-good teachers.

I don't know anything about ADH other than I don't think people have thought through the financial models properly. Hype can only carry a stock for so long......
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Moonraker

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2014, 01:46:12 pm »
PSG’s Curro is the most popular stock pick]

Quote
JOHANNESBURG – Private schooling company Curro has emerged as the most popular stock pick for 2014. Each year Moneyweb runs an informal stock picking competition. At the beginning of the year, community members choose one JSE-listed company. The best performer for the year wins.

Blah, missed the boat, there's still ADH, but I am sceptical.
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Moneypenny

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2014, 09:09:57 am »
Quote from: forward curve on January 16, 2014, 11:20:33 pm
I also wonder how they are going to pay for decent teachers, buildings and the like.

We, the parents, pay - trust me. Yes you do get good teachers, excellent sport coaching - usually ex this or that sportsman and learners do use tablets in stead of books in classes, but everything is additional to your account.  I've seen this school bursting out of its seems since inception and its not stopping.

As an investor (in you child's future) you pay for a service and teachers are paid by parents, they know it, we know it, no slacking there or they are called out very quickly.

I personally think this one is just going to grow and grow.
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Moonraker

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2014, 01:13:04 pm »
Curro Holdings Limited - Trading Statement

Release Date: 20/01/2014 12:10:00      Code(s): COH        Trading Statement

Curro Holdings Limited
Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa
(Registration number: 1998/025801/06)
JSE Share Code: COH
ISIN: ZAE000156253
(“Curro” or “the Company”)

TRADING STATEMENT

In terms of the Listings Requirements of the JSE Limited, a listed company
is required to publish a trading statement as soon as it becomes aware
that the financial results for the financial period to be reported on next
will vary by 20% or more from those of the previous comparable period.

Shareholders are hereby advised that a reasonable degree of certainty
exists that the Company will report an increase in headline earnings of
between 80% and 100% and an increase in earnings per share of between 77%
and 97% for the year ended 31 December 2013.
This means that the Company will report an attributable and headline
earnings per share of between 12.6 cents and 14.0 cents for the year ended
31 December 2013, as opposed to the attributable and headline earnings per
share of 7.1 cents and 7.0 cents published in the previous corresponding
period.

Curro ended the 2013 year with 26 campuses accommodating approximately
22 000 learners. It is anticipated that for the 2014 year, Curro will have
at least 32 campuses with approximately 27 000 learners.

The financial information on which this trading statement is based has not
been reviewed and reported on by Curro’s auditor. The financial results
for the year ended 31 December 2013 are expected to be published on or
about 18 February 2014.

By order of the Board

Durbanville
20 January 2014
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Moonraker

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2014, 02:28:16 pm »
Quote from: Moonraker on January 16, 2014, 02:00:03 pm
One thing that baffles me, all those fancy new school buildings, especially with COH, but where do they get the teachers ?
Last I heard nobody is keen to be a teacher in ZA, quite understandable really. School buildings with all the latset equipment
mean nothing if the teachers are not up to it.


Extract from ADH June 2013 results under 'prospects'.
Quote
The Resourcing division will still feel the effects of a difficult staffing market but is well positioned to hold its own and continue to make a positive contribution.
That's what I am concerned about. Exactly how is Curro different, do they have absolutely no staffing problems ? Is there a glut of qualified teachers
that Curro can draw from, and only ADH is finding it difficult to source staff ? Explanation needed !
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Moneypenny

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2014, 04:46:10 pm »
What's with the exclamation Moon, :D calm down - you are going to give yourself a hart attack.

I don't have the facts, I can only comment on what I have seen.  It's like everything else in the world, you pay good money, you get good value and vice versa.  Maybe competent but fed-up teachers from government schools fill the gap, who knows.   I'm seeing a COH head master tomorrow evening, I'll get his take on it.  Edit: Nothing concrete to add.

But for now, you chill. >:D
« Last Edit: January 23, 2014, 08:31:55 am by Moneypenny »
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Moonraker

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2014, 07:00:42 pm »
I don't intend investing in either of these stocks, for better or for worse. Merely curious about the über-hype, especially
as regards COH.
COH would need to double their upper range 14c earnings forecast every 4 years to get the PE down to acceptable levels
at todays share price.
Not for the faint hearted.
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Moonraker

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2014, 01:25:02 pm »
COH had a small correction of nearly 10% but peanuts really. Way overvalued, need much much more.
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Orca

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2014, 03:03:39 pm »
COH seems to be forming a morning star. The third candle shows that the bears were still in control. The second candle shows that the bears petered out and the bulls started regaining causing that long tail that interestingly also closed that gap left behind in the first week of Dec. If todays candle stays green and near the middle of the third candle body then it is in a confirmed bullish reversal.
Market allowing, she will go up but with the correction imminent, she may drop in sympathy.
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Moonraker

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2014, 10:53:14 am »
Changed my mind about not buying for longer term. Bought ADH @685 on 19th. Was pleasantly surprised to see it at an intraday high of 780 and a close of 742 the next day. Seems it was oversold from its high spike of 874 in Jan.

I reckon it is a good defensive stock that will withstand a sharp market downturn better than most. If rated at COH's PE the price would be somewhere in the 7000's i.e. roughly 10x the current price.

Management is now wide awake.  :)

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Moonraker

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #12 on: April 03, 2014, 02:09:05 pm »
There you go.

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Moonraker

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2014, 10:56:31 am »
Overvalued, but good, stocks tend to move sideways for some time to allow earnings to catch up.
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Moonraker

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Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2015, 10:59:47 am »
What's going down here ? Is Curro wanting to buy out Advtech ? Both issued cautionaries. Advtech share price has shot up over the past week.

Advtech Limited - Cautionary Announcement

Release Date: 25/06/2015 12:20:00      Code(s): ADH     Email this JSE Sens Item to a Friend   Printer Friendly Version
Cautionary Announcement

ADvTECH Limited
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number 1990/001119/06)
Share code: ADH ISIN: ZAE000031035
("the Company" or “ADvTECH”)

Cautionary Announcement

The board of ADvTECH has received an unsolicited proposal from a third party which it is obliged to
consider. Accordingly, shareholders are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the Company’s
securities until a further announcement is released.

25 June 2015
Johannesburg
Sponsor and Corporate Advisor: Bridge Capital Advisors (Pty) Limited

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Curro cautionary issued 12/6/15

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