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Shares / Re: Pulverized Sand Box
« Last post by Bevan on July 17, 2018, 10:33:49 pm »
NPN 69%
Netflieks 15%
Tiensent 9%
Tesla 3%

jaDEB, why do you own Netflix and Tesla? To my mind these stocks are trading on the dot-com 2001 mentality of eyeballs over profits!!! They seem to think that it's not a problem to make a loss, they'll simply make it up with subscriber volumes. Problem is that they're losing money on every subscriber or every car that they make, so higher volumes = higher losses. I don't get the analysts who reckon these businesses will one day make money. Google and Facebook eyeballs that pay nothing per month are far easier to get than Netflix or Tesla customers who actually have to pay something. Guess I'm old school, "money in is better than money out".

Last year Netflix burned through over $2-bn. That's a $17.8m loss for every one of the 112 Emmy's they were nominated for. That's worse than the previous year where every Emmy cost them around a $16m loss. Basically they have to keep spending oodles of cash just to make semi-decent TV shows, whilst every other Tom, Dick and Harry is snapping at their heels and ready to steal their subscribers, or enter into a price-war. Their first-mover advantage is over and it's brutal out there now.

I like Tesla but when you can rent an electric powered BMW for a tiny monthly amount, versus paying for an overpriced Tesla, I think Elon also has an almost impossible task on his hands, never mind his technical issues. Mind you, his multi-billion pay packet (highest ever in history) should help him focus. Oh wait, he's in Thailand, or sleeping on the factory floor again, or running off to Space-X, or coming up with some other cool idea. I like the guy but I suspect shareholders are close to throwing in the towel on him, no matter how cool his cars are.
« Last post by Bevan on July 17, 2018, 10:00:38 pm »
I prefer using Macci-D's vs. EMA's simply because it packs more info but is based on the same underlying assumptions. In my MACD below the red signal line is a medium-term momentum indicator and should be paid close attention to i.e. whether it's above or below the zero indicates the prevailing strength of the market. The blue line is a short term timing indicator.

So, I also would have looked to go short around 9:10 (my times below are UK times so 1 hour behind), with the blue timing indicator crossing down over the red momentum line. However, the red momentum line was still in positive territory so this indicates cross-current, choppy, sideways action.... better to sit on the sidelines. Around an hour later we get a nice cross upwards (blue line crossing up over red) and red is just inside positive territory still... would have gone long then. Another hour later we get a blue line crossing down over red, indicating more cross-current price action.... depending on your stop loss and take profit levels at that point, would have probably stuck with the long and rode out the bumpiness. Shortly afterwards we get another cross upwards to go concurrent to the upside... would have added to my long position etc.

Clearly it's easy to comment after the fact when you can see the resulting price action. However, I've found this combination of momentum and timing lines to be invaluable over the years. The key is to see how the red line is doing - positive or negative, and to not trade against that. Combine that with some basic resistance levels, bollinger bands to gauge market stretchiness / volatility, some basic and obvious trading mentality patterns such as bull and bear flags, and 50% retracements, and that's pretty much all I use these days.

Whatever edge you keep using, the key is that you stick to it and work on your discipline. Over the years I've found that is what will either make or break you as a trader.  And not caring about what happens once you've traded, stopped out or taken a profit. Amazing things happen when you just trust, set your stops and go walk the dog.  :)
« Last post by Bevan on July 17, 2018, 09:36:50 pm »
OK so the 5 min (23-38-81) have all crossed up. So long position taken- although it's difficult to fight the feeling that the market wants to go down.
The 1 hour strat is still short

Are you using IG's ability to force two positions to be open at the same time and not net-off? To me it looks like you simply reduced your short of 2 contracts by stopping out of 1.5 contracts, so still net short 0.5 contracts, not long? Your later post around 5:12pm shows you still short but now only 0.25 contracts, amidst a steadily rising market. Little confused here and not sure of the intention?
« Last post by Bevan on July 17, 2018, 09:27:20 pm »
My only thought on this is that it's damn close to scalping, considering your timeperiods. In my view that's best done by an algo / bot that watches the market every second. That's not a life, for a human at least, because at some point you need to eat, sleep etc. Also, you mention a stop loss but you are going to be in and out of trades very quickly based on your time periods. Can you get through the spread and take enough profit on your winning trades (50%), to beat out your losing trades (50%) with your stop loss? Do you adjust your stops and take profit levels with changing vol levels? If you say that you can do better than 50% wins over time then I lose interest right away because that's simply not possible, unless you're trading positive gamma which you need to pay a premium for. I will not trade on less than a monthly, weekly and daily chart all throwing the same signal, although I use a 30min and 5min chart to get my timing right.
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« Last post by Bread on July 17, 2018, 05:36:32 pm »
Bumpy? NPN went down to 3220 at 09:45 and ended at 3371. Yeah, I'd say that's bumpy.
« Last post by DontPanic on July 17, 2018, 05:12:21 pm »
Have closed position on 1 hour and waiting to go long
The 5 min is still long
« Last post by DontPanic on July 17, 2018, 05:09:16 pm »
No problem

Only because I can't find Heiken Ashies on the IG basic platform.
« Last post by IndustryGuy on July 17, 2018, 04:54:09 pm »
Why heikin ashis on the one but not the other if you do not mind me asking?
Off topic / Live chat
« Last post by jaDEB on July 17, 2018, 03:38:51 pm »
My frikkin Netflieks aggghhhhh
Introductions / Re: Hello
« Last post by DontPanic on July 17, 2018, 11:17:16 am »
 ;D ;D
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