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« on: January 15, 2015, 09:25:37 am »
jaDEB, some thingies on Tencent to keep in mind.
Yet Facebook's significant move up wasn't the biggest stock-market hit among the world's 20 most valuable tech firms.
Year-end stock market data point to the two most valuable winning stories of 2014 for tech investors.
The first was the relative strength of dividend-paying stocks such as Apple, Intel, Hewlett-Packard, Cisco Systems and Microsoft.
The second was a marked shift in value away from U.S. Internet firms (other than Facebook) and toward their Chinese rivals.
Shares of China’s Internet conglomerate Tencent Holdings (0700.HK/TCEHY) has fallen about 15% since its mid-November high.
Unlike Facebook (FB), which generates over 90% of its revenue from selling ads, Tencent makes most of its money from Internet games. But revenue growth from mobile games has slowed in the third quarter last year.
Don’t worry. Instead of mobile gaming, mobile performance ads will be Tencent’s next revenue growth driver, according to J.P. Morgan‘s Alex Yao and Yong Wang, who upgraded Tencent from Hold to Buy with a new price target of 160 Hong Kong dollars. Tencent’s shares rose 3.4% upon the upgrade, recently trading at HK$117.20. J.P. Morgan’s price target represents another 36.5% upside
With the popular messaging app WeChat, Tencent is China’s answer to social network. The bank estimates Tencent’s performance-based ad revenue to account for 14% of Baidu (BIDU) and Alibaba‘s (BABA) combined ad revenue in 2017, in line with Facebook, which generated roughly 15% of Google‘s (GOOGL) ad revenue in the U.S. in 2013. J.P. Morgan now expects advertising revenue to increase from 11% of total revenue in 2014 to 25% in 2017.
Since J.P. Morgan believes mobile ads will contribute to Tencent’s earnings “meaningfully in the next two to three years,” Tencent has become cheap trading at 18 times their 2016 earnings estimates. The HK$160 price target is based on their 2016 estimate of HK$6.33, annual earnings growth of 22% from 2016 to 2018, and 1.15x PEG ratio