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Messages - gcr

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586
The Investor Challenge / Re: Taking gambles peeves me off.
« on: November 07, 2015, 02:27:02 pm »
I have a view that if you wish to win this competition then you by and large have to trade shares rather than invest and hold as the timeframe of the competition is just to short to hold many of the stocks.
Every single stock that I have in the competition is held in my personal portfolio but some I have held for more than 3 years so my % growth in some cases is above 150% . A point in question I bought Mr Price at R 256 per share in the competition and it has sunk to about R 220 so I am taking quite a knock on these shares. However in my personal portfolio I bought at an all inclusive price of R 103.25 so can still take plenty of pain should they drop further. My decision to buy more Bidvest, Adaptit and Clicks was based on how these shares shaped up in the competition. 
So I agree Orca's sentiments around the competition   

587
Off topic / Live chat
« on: November 05, 2015, 09:31:13 am »
See Top 40 reached an all time high of 49192.90 yesterday (my recording)

588
Shares / Re: My Beginner's Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« on: November 02, 2015, 10:49:19 pm »
It is obvious that we have distinctly different viewpoints, so here's a proposal which will take the emotion out of the matter and stop it becoming a pissing competition.
Patrick no doubt will run this competition again next year and more than likely assign the same monthly amount over the competition duration.
Proposal
Between January 4th 2016 (the date that we should get our 1st R 100,000) we have until 29th January 2016 to invest the R 100,000 fully into any REIT's or securities of our choice. These instruments may not be sold during the course of the year, but you may add funds to these instruments during the course of the year. This requirement is to in theory not violate SARS conditions whereby you need to hold the instruments for 3 years to avoid being designated a trader.
So in principle these funds are ring fenced within the competition and then o the appropriate day in December 2016 when the competition ceases we can tot up the capital appreciation (Patrick carries both purchase and current price in the competition) and the dividends/interest earned. The dividends/interest declared can be reinvested within the respective counters but dividends of other holding may not be invested in the ring fenced instruments.
Thus at the end of December 2016 we can see what the respective ring fenced instruments achieved in creating wealth

Should sufficient numbers of forumites enter into this aspect of the overall competition we may well pick up some interesting results and from which all of us can learn and make us better investors.
This is not a bragging competition but a mechanism by which we can all learn and can make future decisions with some historic data
So I am keen to be part of this exercise, are there others that would be interested in being part of the "challenge" and maybe Patrick can create a suitable thread just for this year long exchange   
   

589
Shares / Re: My Beginner's Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« on: November 02, 2015, 04:20:31 pm »
I don't want to hijack this thread but this is what I have established looking at my present portfolio:-
I sold out of SAC September 27, 2007 at a price of R 4.14 and per todays figures the price is R 5.20. Since 2008 it has declared the following dividends 2008 29.50 cents; 2009 29.70 cents; 2010 27.48 cents; 2011 28.53 cents; 2012 29.65 cents; 2013 31.26 cents; 2014 34. 15 cents; 2015 37.68 cents
I then compared this against my Woolworths holdings which I bought at the same time as I sold SACI bought at R 20.93 and todays price is R 103.02
Dividends declared since 2008 were as follows 2008 173 cents; 2009 85 cents; 2010 105 cents; 2011 143.5 cents; 2012 198 cents; 2013 234 cents; 2014 251.5 cents, and 2015 247 cents
On the Woolworths shares there would have been the 15 withholding tax per cycle and dividend payout

So my question to Moonraker - Help me through this malaise and tell me how I could have scored a better wealth return by staying in SAC as the WHL price has gone up significantly since 2007 (Allan Grey had a sell at this stage) yet SAC has gone nowhere in real terms.
What I am trying to get my head around is how REIT are better than equities - because in my mind it all revolves around what you purchase
So happy to learn

590
Shares / Re: My Beginner's Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« on: November 02, 2015, 03:20:54 pm »
@gcr Check the SAC thread http://shareforum.co.za/shares/sac/ to find out about REITS and to see how they outperformed equities by a huge margin over the past 10 years and even this year.
Looks like you missed out on some great wealth creation for fear of paying tax. If you take something like NEPI or RES the outperformance is even higher.
NEPI = 15% withholding tax, so not added to taxable income. RES = locally registered with holdings in NEPI, Rockcastle, Fortress. As RES is not foreign listed income from distributions are added to income (so what ?) but there is no withholding tax.
Take some time to learn about the various REITS, which ones to avoid etc.
Ta - will look into them

591
Shares / Re: My Beginner's Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« on: November 02, 2015, 02:29:09 pm »
Investing in property funds which generate a relatively high interest component would eat up your interest allowance per tax directives.
Aren't property funds now seen as income rather than interest since they converted to REITs?
Not sure, but if it is the case that they are treated as income then there is a further problem as it is likely to put one into a higher tax bracket with little opportunity to reduce once taxable income
Just as an aside - I have yet to meet anybody who has become wealthy by selecting high dividend yielding counters as a source of income, but, I have met many who have become wealthy through share price appreciation. One of the reasons I keep R .5 million on 6 monthly FD's is to get the interest stream, and also to deflate my tax burden with the allowed deduction for over 65's.
However I read that the taxman may do away with this aspect of interest neutralisation

592
Shares / Re: My Beginner's Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« on: November 02, 2015, 10:00:05 am »
Still not sure how to interpret the end result of those persons who want to pursue a dividend stream as a form of income. Here's my problem (understanding of course) to get a decent return of more than 7% you may have to be in some risky resources stocks, which will be subject to divi taxes. Investing in property funds which generate a relatively high interest component would eat up your interest allowance per tax directives.
Also to generate sufficient dividends your capital in the market would be substantial and would be upwards of R 3.0 million to get a half decent "income". Further if your capital appreciates (as hopefully it should) once you sell a portion you lose that portions dividend/interest income. You would then have to invest that capital once again into another instrument to replenish the dividends/interest lost
So if this is the thinking behind trying to optimize the dividend/interest stream, then surely shouldn't one be considering dumping funds into an RA or a Retirement Fund for future income off these funds.
Maybe if I understood what the end objective is/was for pursuing a dividend/interest stream as opposed to a capital appreciation model then maybe I could understand the logics of the approach   

593
Shares / Re: Sunday Times Top 100 JSE Companies 2015
« on: November 01, 2015, 02:47:56 pm »
The Sunday Slimes is a putrid newspaper nothing in todays paper around the top 100 companies other a few lines on who won what award.
I think it is pathetic that on the Sunday following the awards they can't have all the results published after all they take a year to plan this and the results were as per September 30th as a cut off date. :wtf:
Paper is hardly worth the R 20 cover price
Rant for the week :LHST:

594
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: October 31, 2015, 02:51:11 pm »
Yes - they paid out on 21/10/2015

595
Shares / Re: Early retirement
« on: October 27, 2015, 02:28:25 pm »
Just a thought as I have not studied what is or isn't in TFSA - but can you buy into a REIT type account through the TFSA. If permissible you may then reap the benefit of a decent dividend income and then also get a tax break.
Maybe someone who is familiar with TFSA could comment

596
Shares / Re: Early retirement
« on: October 27, 2015, 09:13:17 am »
The debate as to whether you invest to achieve a dividend stream or invest to achieve capital appreciation will go on forever, because a number of factors are missing the major one being that we are not privy to the persons circumstances either financially or physical (health). There are always costs associated with purchases whether it be brokers fees or fees to purchase SATRIX and other types of instruments.
When the markets turns down you may well see your share prices reduce quite significantly, but by the same token if the share price does drop you may well find that the company passes its dividend distribution - the resources has experienced this many times in the past.
Also without knowing a persons circumstances it is impossible to advise or recommend what path that person should pursue - especially if the person is "on pension" I used to have SATRIXDIV in my portfolio and dumped them as they showed limited growth. When I sold out (May 2013) they were at R 2.05 and are now trading at R 2.09 and their dividend stream was not something to write home about - so its not an investment I would return to.
The individual who is trying to decide which path to walk has a difficult journey as forumites don't know access to your lifestyle and/or circumstances and thus can not provide any real proposals or options to be considered. Also of bigger concern is that people on this forum will provide their opinions based on their own circumstances and they will by nature be very different to other forum commentators. If I look at my own circumstances my comments are based on my experiences, decision making, and my particular financial disposition and that my investment strategy is for today or the next five years, but has a horison for 12 and more years hence
My personal recommendation to those who are undecided is seek out a highly qualified and pragmatic investment advisor who is not peddling a companies products (on which he/she gets commissions) and lay out your thinking and logics and then get the advisor to given his qualified views - he/she mapping out benefits of taking up different options to your views.
Just my opinions - do not act on them as cast in stone - we are all uniquely different as are our circumstances   

597
Shares / Re: Tax
« on: October 26, 2015, 11:01:47 am »
You can use it as a trading loss. The tax form only asks for base costs and realised gain but if you sold a number of counters then it gets absorbed within the malaise of the figures you declare - so losses will reduce any profits you are deemed to have made. The tax form only call for 2 figures for CGT as it relates to shares. One of the reasons I always have a small portion of my portfolio in speculative shares (like Alert Steel) I will when the company is wound up or declared bankrupt use the cost of purchase to reduce my CGT profits by R 21,600

598
Shares / Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« on: October 26, 2015, 10:00:05 am »
There have been many debates around diversification of a portfolio - some advocate limiting to 3 or 4 counters, whilst others have advocated a wide holding of counters.
The essence is what is your strategic imperative in your portfolio do you 1) just want to beat inflation 2) derive dividend streams 3) pursue growth 4) just keep your funds safe 4) create a nest egg for when you reach a certain age.
Your objectives around that portfolio need to be crisp and achievable and must have an end goal - mine is very simple - if I die ahead of my wife my portfolio will more than adequately replace the loss in pension she would suffer upon my death - even if she liquidated the entire portfolio and invested in a simple fixed deposit
My present portfolio has 22 counters in it and is spread across different sectors of the economy, and what it does for me may not necessarily work for others. Within the portfolio I have a DBX tracker fund (EU - not performing as expected) and a Satrix fund (Indi which is doing well). 66% of my portfolio is spread across foodstuff manufacturing, supermarkets, food and clothing, and a diversified conglomerate - I have 4% in resources and 3% in fund managers and about 4% in rats and mice and speculative shares, and 5% in Vodacom (this investment is set aside though for my wife so that she can replace her aged car when she needs to)
So my portfolio is structured to ensure that within one of the sector or even maybe in more than one sector I get growth whilst the others lag, due to constraints in the economy
So as you will note I am an advocate of diversification, but, will admit that over diversification can result in the difficulty of managing too many balls at once - what is over diversification well that's a personal issue, but presently I can manage my 22 counters comfortably - but that's because I can give my portfolio adequate time per day

599
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: October 23, 2015, 04:27:27 pm »
Many people consider October a bad month for share price movements, in my experience this is not normally true.
October has in fact been a rewarding month for my portfolio as it has moved up by about R 200,000 to date, hope the balance of the month doesn't knock a big hole in the growth/paper profit :TU:

600
Shares / Re: Peregrine
« on: October 22, 2015, 09:31:08 pm »
If I look at historic sens announcements it seems that for the September 2014 unaudited results were released on 12th November 2015, and based on their fact sheet interims are indicated as being announced on 12 November 2015 - so it seems a little patience is needed for the results

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