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what would a defensive strategy be in the markets conditions you are referring to ?

Please notr this should not be considered financial advice. The Rand will likely blow out to around 16 to USD over next year or two. So look at an ETF there. But once we settle down after elections and Trump is impeached and/or the US defaults, I expect SA to perform really well. We are approaching our golden age of max potential youth, assuming we can find them jobs. Only touch gold if you're sure the SH1t is hitting the fan. Avoid crypto until the killer app materialises. Hint... It won't be BTC. Our greatest resource is our people, our wildlife and our natural places. Invest in any business in those areas. The world wants what we have. Also invest in anything to do with looking after poor old people. There are going to be a hell of a lot of them around, especially in the "developed world". I have a sneaky suspicion that US pensions and social security will default on then en-masse, and then issue everyone with a dollar based govt. crypto  currency, much like they took away gold and then devalued it before giving it back in the 30's.

Also, I don't believe you can go wrong by buying a piece of land with good water and soil potential, and becoming self sustainable. Then you are immune to what happens, especially if surrounded by s defensive and like minded community. We got 10 acres in Hogsback for 900k, with house, cottage, natural spring and 100,000 litres of water storage. Plus a forest of oaks, chestnut, cedar, yellow wood and porcini mushrooms. For fun I wanted to know what the bank's would offer as a mortgage? Can you believe only 50% whilst they will 90% bond a tiny box house in JHB for more than that. The system is insane, read Sapiens by Harari. Explains our collective madness very well.

The safest money right now is what Buffett is doing, take s guaranteed 2% interest in 20 day US treasuries and keep rolling. You don't want to be locked in for longer than that every time. I would also avoid the higher yielding SA govis as there is major concern right now around Eskom. If it fails all that debt goes onto the government balance sheet and we go straight to junk status. The bank's and foreigners will be first in line to take their cash out and poor old SA public will get defaulted on. Government bonds come with a risk rating for a reason.

I remember being pitched to at my trading desk in London in early 2007 by a young, freshly-minted MBA. I was heading up commodities but had drawn the short straw and had to look after the grad interns. He was adamant the bank should be selling Credit Default Swaps (CDS) against these triple-AAA rated mortgage packages. Easy passive income, no risk... I wasn't so sure but knew I was getting older. I was only 34 but he was 20-something and he had the buzzwords. I knew that selling derivatives into a low volatility market was asking for trouble. We didn't do it and several months later those who did were staring at huge losses as the credit crunch swallowed them whole.

Since then I've managed to slow down and enjoy life in Hogsback, living according to Aristotle's mantra that "Happiness belongs to the self-sufficient". Of course I trade every now and again and the below chart should scare the pants off anyone.... It was inevitable that we would get here of course, such is the nature of momentum. And it may not even be that bad, but it sure is not going to be a rosy 2018 for equities. The vol we're seeing now is just the start of it. Basically, a monthly chart on the Dow is showing short-term momentum having broken below medium term momentum. This is like the wind blowing against the current, causing choppy sideways conditions. Of course this has happened before, in July 2011 and Feb 2015, but those occasions weren't too bad.

Something inside feels different this time. Never before in the course of human history has so much passive money been thrown blindly into the market, expecting outsized returns. In 2011 and 2015 the Fed was in the throes of QE, now it is easing, and rates are starting to shoot up. The trusty 2-10 year US Treasury spread is almost negative again, a sure sign of recession to come. The US is firing on full employment but no-one is any richer, and US citizens are about to start feeling a lot poorer, as the dopamine effects of zero interest wear off.

I'm not predicting a crash, just a lot of sideways bouncing around for now. The crash will come when the US can't refinance its $21-trn debt, even at 5% interest. And at 5% guaranteed interest, what investor is going to want to be in uncertain equity markets moving sideways? The markets sense this already, and are jumpy. Because when the short, medium and long term money all start pulling out the market together, it will be mayhem.

Short term we should retrace back to around 13.00 but then I reckon we will see around 16.50 to 17 to USD by election time next year, as some crazy promises are made and the media over-eggs the things that are said. Then (hopefully) SA will finally get its act together and the Rand will really start performing, taking us back to around 10, or even better to the USD. Of course, if Trump bankrupts the US, and possibly even the global economy by then, all bets are off. The US is around $21-trn in debt and borrowing to pay interest, from creditors that are increasingly getting peeved about their attitude to trade. Either way I reckon I'm pretty safe in Hogsback. We got free water and off-grid power now. Dairy, meat and most fruit and veg is also sorted now. Just need a solution for fuel. Biodiesel really clogs up the filters. Someone should tell Elon Musk to make an electric bakkie!

And next week should see Steinhoff collapse even more.... Short term momentum is getting ready to break down.... Fundamentally it's called "capitulation" or "throwing in the towel". It's a classic bear flag i.e. after a big fall, market trades sideways as momentum recovers back into positive territory, then finally breaks back down, as it must. The explanation is that buyers finally get tired of holding up the market, the weak longs start to get taken out, and finally everyone decides they've had enough. Voila, le "crash".

I have a Sterling account with IG Index. For me CFD's are the only way to go because of the amazing leverage e.g. I can make $300 profit in an hour or two, on the back of $80 margin. But they're not for everyone. On that particular trade my stop loss would be around $50 i.e. 6:1 profit:loss ratio. That simple math, with a 50:50 probability of a winning trade every time, almost guarantees making money over time. Except most people don't run their profits and cut their losses, they do the exact opposite.

Also read https://www.sovereignman.com/blog/ for some great insights now and again. He obviously punts his Plan B products but his daily blog is free and often has some great advice.

I'm also interested in this whole brokerage thing... Having been a professional commodities trader and now a homesteader in Hogsback, I'm kinda more interested in harvesting my porcini mushrooms, teaching people about sustainability, and making other cool foods. However, trading and writing helps pay the bills, especially as one of the SA stockbrokers wants me to do research for them, as well as new product development.

So to expand on the original question, some more thoughts...
- what do you think of this whole copy trader malarky? What % fee would you part with to execute the same trades as a supposed pro?
- what new products / services should brokers be making available? Other than the whole crystal ball thing, which would of course be really cool.

Hi Jadeb, I'm not really a twitterer but my handle is @BevanRJones