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Messages - Bevan

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196
Shares / Re: South Africa Top 40
« on: February 03, 2014, 02:17:42 pm »
Markets are looking to bottom out as oversold intensifies. However, both weekly and monthly charts now show downside triggers. So unless we see a fairly quick correction back up (this week) we could be in for a prolonged downside drift. My feeling is that we get a sideways move this week to form a bear flag and then a downside breakout towards end of week as momentum pushes back down again. We really need an almost immediate correction to the upside to sustain the positive trend else I figure that trend will turn down and we see a couple of bearish months.

197
Shares / Re: South Africa Top 40
« on: January 25, 2014, 12:18:24 am »
I guess you could definitely say we saw the downside trigger today. Markets are going to be tough and chopping around sideways to down for most of next week.

198
Shares / Re: South Africa Top 40
« on: January 24, 2014, 10:06:06 am »
Markets looking a little shaky here. If we don't see a rally on the street today then we could continue this downward grind into February, potentially shaving off a 1,000 points on Top 40 before momentum turns back up. However, downward moves from here will be quick and sharp, probably only lasting a few days. Very similar setup to first few days in January this year (see chart). However, we haven't seen a downside trigger yet so price action today is very important for next week's direction.

199
Shares / Re: share shorting explanation
« on: January 24, 2014, 10:02:01 am »
Indeed, the bull walks up the stairs (80% of the time) and the bear jumps out the window (20% of the time). So odds are in your favour trading long.

You can short with CFD's or futures but it's harder to short with actual shares. It involves borrowing cash from your stockbroker which you must then pay back at a later date, either pocketing a profit or paying in extra if you lose money. You will be called for extra margin if the position goes against you.

200
Shares / Re: Does anyone here gear their investments?
« on: January 24, 2014, 09:58:37 am »
Unless you know exactly what you are doing, one of the golden rules of corporate finance is to never use debt to finance equity. Assuming that debt costs around 15% then you need CONSISTENT equity returns at this level just to break even. I've seen too many people lose their shirts in this game to recommend this approach. Equity markets rise and fall but debt is constant and lasts a lot longer than people expect.
 

201
Shares / Re: GlencoreXstrata - GLN
« on: January 20, 2014, 07:44:33 am »
I do not know why GLN is going up like this, or the others like Billiton. But I appreciate it.

All resource stocks doing very well this last week as investors look for value. Resources performed badly last year and on P:E terms are showing value now. Anglo American was the superstar last week. However, resources are not going to hold this year. China is cutting back on its steel sector and coal also looking weak going forward. Parts of Anglo are going to be sold off this year. Watch this space.  8)

202
Shares / Re: Advtech (ADH) vs. Curro (COH)
« on: January 16, 2014, 11:20:33 pm »
Buyer beware. A lot of people rushed out to buy African Bank based on Capitec's success. That ended in tears.

Curro is like an overvalued IT stock. People buy it because of potential. I also wonder how they are going to pay for decent teachers, buildings and the like. It should have the effect of driving up teacher salaries (which is a good thing in my book) but that means all those poor old government schools are going to suffer with the not-so-good teachers.

I don't know anything about ADH other than I don't think people have thought through the financial models properly. Hype can only carry a stock for so long......

203
Shares / Re: Rand / $
« on: January 16, 2014, 09:40:37 am »
It's interesting how pessimistic most South Africans are on the Rand and this is reflected in most of the daily trade you see with importers wanting to hedge and protect against any Rand weakness whilst exporters are less worried about hedging because they don't think the Rand will strengthen. So of course the flow of trade supports further Rand weakness in a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, in recent years the Rand has performed spectacularly well and if you had off-shored a lot of Rands you would be questioning the returns. SA is unfortunately lumped together with the other emerging markets with thinly traded currencies and most of the FX traders are sitting off-shore with a limited insight into what is going right with SA, alongside all the negative news. I would recommend JP Landman's new book, "The Long View" to anyone with an interest in SA.

And short term I think the Rand will hit 11.00 and then strengthen back to around 10.80 for a bit. Currently it's quite overbought although the 11.00 level is too exciting to traders to not get there now. Ego's are at work.

204
Shares / Re: USD:ZAR Updates
« on: January 14, 2014, 12:56:43 pm »

Not looking good at all. Lesson is never to buck a positive trend combined with positive momentum i.e. red line in top half of momentum chart, even if short term indicator breaks down. While the 10.80 level held briefly and we did see a recovery we came right back the next day to blast through it.

Extrapolating forward on this move we could easily see an 11 handle tested but by then we will be very overbought (Rand oversold). I would expect we will then bounce around 11 for some time as momentum wears back down before any new surge can take place.

205
Shares / Re: South Africa Top 40
« on: January 13, 2014, 12:42:04 pm »
Not liking the price action on JSE or Dow futures. Would definitely hold off on entering any new longs for now.

206
The Investor Challenge / Re: New feature requests go here
« on: January 13, 2014, 10:28:14 am »
Patrick, can you add ABSA's NewRand ETF i.e. the top 10 Rand Hedge stocks?


207
Shares / Re: South Africa Top 40
« on: January 13, 2014, 10:06:56 am »
Market still choppy but waiting for an upside breakout here. Should continue to tread water sideways for today although any good news on Wall Street etc. could easily see the market run up 1,000 points here.

Definitely should not be short. Eager traders might consider entering anticipation longs as downside is limited. However, may be able to get better entry point later on as upside move not confirmed yet.



208
Shares / Re: South Africa Top 40
« on: January 10, 2014, 03:37:35 pm »
Non Farm Payrolls just in at 74K vs. 196K consensus. Unemployment at 6.7% versus 7% consensus. Non farm payrolls is very weak and seems to be leading Wall Street down for now.

However, Yellen has said she will target unemployment and therefore this could also be read as positive. However, as most traders are addicted to QE stimulus and a healthier full employment economy now means that the Queen Dealer (Yellen) will be pulling their stash (tapering) quicker than they had previously wished for.

Strange days. Market still choppy and cross current but if we see an up push on Wall Street tonight we "should" see an upside breakout early next week for both Wall Street and JSE. This would be very bullish as momentum moves back up in line with trend. Not confirmed yet however and market currently looking to chop around sideways for now.


209
The Investor Challenge / Re: How to identify frequently traded shares
« on: January 10, 2014, 03:15:49 pm »
Some terminology...... A buyer "bids" to buy, a seller "offers" to sell. Very different to buying a house where a buyer makes an offer....

When executing a seller "hits the bid" as in a hammer going down and a buyer "lifts the offer". From floor trading days when a trader shouted "mine" he was buying and when you shout "yours" you are selling.

Trading is all about the bid / offer spread and the stack. Goldmans stole a lead on all other banks trading systems by offering a volume weighted traded price execution mechanism which gave traders key insight into the most popular trading levels. This is important to know, especially when you are "fishing for stops" i.e. pushing the market down and hoping that long-only traders get stopped out and push it down further, typically because you want to get in at a lower price.

P.S. I really think by having the delay and eliminating penny stocks that the system is robust enough i.e. the bid offer spread on stocks trading above R1 can't be that significant to affect performance......

210
The Investor Challenge / Re: How to identify frequently traded shares
« on: January 09, 2014, 02:54:45 pm »
do you get the bid and offer prices?
That would be closest to reality IMO
I don't know that the bid and offer prices are closer to reality than the real transaction prices. In some cases the highest bid/offer price would be a few cents off the transaction figure. By the same token in a choppy market the bid and offer could be quite substantial. The fundamentals of the exchange are that at a point the bidder and offeror agree a price at which they are prepared to buy/sell and the transaction is concluded. So my view is that we need to stick with the last transaction price

Last transaction price is always the reported price. The bid (for sellers) and offer (for buyers) is the realistic transaction price at any point in time. However, with many electronic systems there is often very little volume on the leading bid and / or offer. The price you end up trading at (assuming a best price order) would be the weighted average of the price and volume available. One really needs to see the "stack" i.e. list of all bids and offers and the associated volumes to see where traders are actually interested in trading at.

Often in fast markets you will see electronic systems picking off the bid and offer in small amounts, trying to lead volume into the trade. However, volume can often be hidden as part of an "iceberg" order e.g. you think you are hitting the bid in 1,000 lots and driving the price down but the bid keeps coming back at the same price because the trader has placed an iceberg for 10,000 lots. These are where the real games are played in trading.  ;)


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