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Messages - dividendtycoon

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16
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: December 03, 2016, 10:32:10 am »
Could be wrong, but thought she was at Investec before this - so do not think she started it. Always thought it was a temporary post - so not shocked, but thought she was doing a decent job. I do not really think  CEO's of REITs though are as important as normal companies CEO's.
Agreed, the actual properties are much more important than the CEO. A CEO can be replaced, hopefully the properties are decent enough.

17
Shares / Re: My retirement blog.
« on: November 25, 2016, 04:48:27 pm »
I hope the tests lead to some certainty and hopefully a solution to her problems. Wish you and your wife well in this difficult time.

18
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: October 28, 2016, 09:34:15 am »
DvTycoon smiling at the moment...
Thanks Mr_Dividend. Been a frustrating process and some interesting things going on, but seems it may be worth it eventually! Will see what the other minorities think, but at least it seems almost fair now, although the sens report said that the advisers to Gooderson said it 'unfair, but reasonable'...

19
Shares / Re: Property stocks trading at a discount?
« on: August 18, 2016, 10:31:02 am »
This sector is tempting, but you need to do your homework on them. I like Tower which has done ok since I bought, is under cautionary. I also bought Delta but recently sold and broke even. Sold for a better (risk adjusted) return elsewhere, but still think yield attractive, but not sure of quality so may leave it for now.

Texton yield also very tempting, but there are risks. Edcon leases a 27000sqm building which is at risk of edcon going under, the renewals of SA leases going backwards in rentals, and it difficult to know quality of UK props. However, think the yield prices the risks in and at current prices might be a good buy.

20
Shares / Re: BTI ..... what to do what to do!
« on: August 08, 2016, 01:15:29 pm »
Tobacco stocks have been among the best performers of any stocks, but I personally would not, for the same reason that a very well known UK fund manager, Nick Train, would not:

 ‘It’s not a moral objection on my part, but it feels like not a smart thing to do — to be a partner in a business that kills its own customers.’

We are probably both wrong and they will continue to grind out both profit and dividends, but it is something to think about. 8)

21
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: July 22, 2016, 09:14:47 pm »
DiviT - wondered if you caught the sens after close - Gooderson Leisure Corporation Limited - Misappropriation Of Funds
@Mr_Dividend. Yes, just seen that, pretty shocking. I wonder if they already knew and the delisting is a way of avoiding too much embarrassment, combined with being able to buy the assets cheap. I think it will still go ahead, but does cause a little uncertainty..

22
Shares / Re: Measuring Share Portfolio Performance (Accurately!!!)
« on: July 19, 2016, 09:31:27 pm »
I think it is best to spend time researching the stocks before you buy them. You will lose money if you do not do this. If you do this well you will make money and will not need exact performance figures, you will just know you are doing well.

Standard Bank tells you your own performance. Personally I do not measure myself against the market. Sometimes commodities will do well and you will look bad if you are not in them. Just worry about yourself. :)

23
Shares / Re: Interview
« on: July 19, 2016, 08:29:45 pm »
I enjoyed the interview Stealthy. You asked the type of questions that I, and I am sure others, would have been interested to know. It is amazing what Patrick was able to achieve by being frugal, yet still having a life. As he says it is amazing more people do not do some of these things. Well done Patrick on reaching early financial independence, was inspiring to read.

24
Shares / Re: Why is Curro taking such a beating?
« on: July 15, 2016, 09:32:33 am »
I think it is down because the risk/reward ratio was wrong. With such a high P/E ratio what is the upside, in the short term anyway? The downside though could be high. Same probably applies to Naspers, although I have not done much research on either, so dont take my advice, these are just my thoughts.

On the other hand, I have just had an experience with Gooderson, a hotel stock nobody wanted, you could have bought as much as you wanted at 39c up until tuesday this week. It had a NAV of 154c and PE of 11 at 39c. It is now 60c on a plan to delist at 65c. Admittedly this stock caused me some headaches, and I just wrote about it in my blog if you interested http://www.dividendtycoon.com/blog/2016/07/15/my-hotels-are-almost-sold-a-lucky-escape-for-this-dividend-tycoon/
The point though is that what was there to loose for the risk at 39c, and what was the upside? The best stocks are not always good investments and the worst are not always bad. I would encourage anybody to read Howard Marks book on investing in this regard.





25
Shares / Re: Simon Brown till death porfolio.
« on: July 04, 2016, 05:04:30 pm »
GCR - sounds like he has quite a few portfolio's - in small caps he did mention owning Santova and Calgro.

DiVT - personally, Capitec is one of my favorites - wish I went overweight when ABL crisis was happening - but happy I bought when i did. These guys rate it as the best bank in the world btw http://www.businessdaytv.co.za/shows/newsleader/2016/07/01/ranking-sa-s-banks . Chatted to a guy I was sitting with a few months back - he offloaded his free shares when they split from PSG figuring that if PSG didn't want them, nether did he. 7500 shares @ around R2.  ??? Oh well, as long as he kept the PSG shares we would have come out OK!


You should do well out of Capitec Mr_Div, I am hoping my Trustco shares will have even a tenth of the Capitec shares success, but do not want another bank share. It is stories like the one you have about Capitec that cause me to keep shares such as Grand Parade and Trustco, out of fear of telling a 'Capitec' story one day.

26
Shares / Re: Simon Brown till death porfolio.
« on: July 04, 2016, 01:39:54 pm »
Thanks for the link Mr_Dividend. I enjoyed the listen.

The only stocks I would choose of the list would be Shoprite, City Lodge, Famous Brands and Woolworths. I either do not understand the others or do not like the long term prospects. Capitec I do not like because of the leverage and what a full blown credit crisis could do to them.

I respect Simon Brown, but was suprised when he panicked and sold good SA stocks after nenegate. I also find he is too quick to dismiss the smaller companies such as Choppies and Grand Parade, if you are going to get great returns going forward some up and coming stocks are worth having.

27
Shares / Re: Risky business
« on: June 21, 2016, 04:00:52 pm »
Thanks, appreciate the advice. Just building up a list  ::) , was going to buy PPC Yesterday, but my broker is not in.... maybe a sign  :question:
Well, perhaps do some research anyway to convince yourself...I have not looked at it in detail, but a 1c share is normally 1c for a reason.. good luck with your others. I do not like PPC as a business, but could be a short term trading opportunity.

28
Shares / Re: Risky business
« on: June 21, 2016, 03:48:12 pm »
NUT
JOB..

Seriously though, I think this not even worth gambling money. NAV is 1.2c and it loss making...no real margin of safety.

29
Shares / Re: My retirement blog.
« on: June 09, 2016, 08:40:59 am »
I really enjoy reading Orca's blog, please keep posting about life in Portugal.

I don't know that I concur with the writing around the 4% rule, as it assumes that you have your retirement funds in a single pot and is really skewed towards retirement annuities. When you retire the earliest age that you can access your RA is 55 but if you don't retire at this age you can extend your RA to age 70 (currently). However if you have a reasonable pension, an RA and investments (bank investments, mutual funds and shares) then the 4% rule is not valid.
The reality is you need to look at your worldly wealth and then structure you draw downs accordingly, but, this situation doesn't just occur just before retirement it happens decades before you even reach retirement. When I retired at 58 a year before I retired my employer called me in and started discussing retirement options with me, I terminated the discussion because I had already planned my retirement some 5 years before actually taking up the offer of early retirement.
So each case is unique and it has to be strategised on an individual basis - to me there are 3/4 pillars that need to be addressed over your working life:- 1) have a pension fund 2) have an RA (new order not the crappy old order RA's) 3) have short term investments 32 days/FD's etc 4) build an investment portfolio
With this range of differing investments the 4% rule does not apply - your pension is your base monthly income and the others augment your pension giving you the flexibility to buy capital items from time to time.
I am a firm believer in ensuring that you have a good pension in place the others are what I would call top up investments which will look after you financially in the future 20/30 years down the line.
To my mind if you don't have a pension then the question arises what were you thinking in your twenties by ignoring putting in place a pension.
Those persons who don't have pensions and only have a lump sum on which they hope to sustain themselves then maybe 4% could work but it would be preferably to draw down less in the good times and then revert to 4% in the difficult times so that I the good times it boost the capital, thus allowing you to increase you monthly Rand drawing by CPI.
Personally I have all 4 pillars in place and the one investment I have a problem with is my Living Annuity as I am compelled by law to make a 2.5% annual draw down (which I would prefer not to make any draw down), as these funds I have assigned for use later in my life i.e. once I get to 80. Also I look at the other 3 pillars outside of my pension as a compensation in the event that I die that these 3 pillars more than compensate my wife for her reduced pension.
So in the final analysis its pretty much everybody for themselves but based on their unique circumstances

This is my opinion and views and it works for me - a message I have impressed on my kids     

I think all the above is very good advice. It has obviously worked well for gcr and most people would probably be best advised to follow it. Personally I have taken a different path, where 99% of my wealth is in listed equities. I have shunned pension funds, RA's (except a small one I stopped contributing to 10 years ago as there was no penalty) and unit trusts, because I hate paying the fees that all these funds cost. With my equity portfolio my 'management fees' are almost zero. I am close to being able to live off the dividend income now so by retirement it should be more than enough. I do think that I have reached this stage a lot quicker due to the fact that my fund has not been eroded by 'management fees' and has as a consequence compounded more quickly.

My strategy is higher risk, probably reckless, and I do have a more risky portfolio than average, but I just wanted to present an alternative scenario, even if I believe most people would be much better off following gcr's advice.

30
Shares / Re: Junk Status - how to prepare
« on: June 06, 2016, 11:07:33 am »
Yeah, with good companies - dividend yields often get left behind! What I do is work my dividend yields on my cost not current price.  For instance, my average cost on Capitec is R185 and my D/Y for this year was 5.67% - not bad - and I expect it to grow by 10 - 15% for many years. Same with MRP (over 4% anyway).

No sure if this is the right way to look at it - it certainly isn't maximizing dividends (for that, selling it and buying a better current yield would make sense), but I feel it's a comprise between dividends and hopefully some growth.

I would tend to agree with your strategy, it is generally better to keep the good stocks even if the yield gets left behind, especially great stocks like CPI and MRP. It is what I do too mostly unless the valuation becomes really extreme, which I felt with NEPI. However even with NEPI, if there were not other stocks that I really wanted I would most likely not have sold it down.

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