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Messages - Patrick

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8086
The Investor Challenge / Re: Added Satrix INDI to the leaderboard
« on: July 13, 2013, 08:18:36 am »
I saw that I missed a LDT for the indi on the 24th of June, so I added that to the LDT thread and it's now been paid. It's bumped the indi up to 15th spot. Hard to argue with that as an investment strategy...

8087
Shares / Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« on: July 12, 2013, 06:15:24 pm »
I did post a chart just above here today. Have a look at it. A turning point perhaps.

I have a friend who worked for village until today in fact. They closed her office, she was the one to switch off the lights on the way out.

That's a horrible situation. You have a choice, either hold the shares and hope for a recovery, or sell for something that offers growth and just wait for a few years to recover your cash and start making growth.

Do you see a recovery in mining anytime soon? Personally I don't, not with the state of labour as it is. :wall:

Probably best you give this a read: The Art Of Selling A Losing Position

8088
Shares / Re: Reaching financial freedom
« on: July 12, 2013, 11:14:05 am »
Orca is moving to Portugal. He won't need a car, just a fishing rod  :))

Welcome aboard Immobilier, good to see you posting  :TU:

I'm quite a bit more conservative in my retirement plan. My goal is to get to R9m in today's money in 12 years time (average market returns, massive savings). If I then move that to something like the satrix divi, I'll be getting dividends of R360k per year or R30k monthly. If I only spend 20k, I'll be able re-invest 10k a month meaning my wealth should grow. Of course you would also expect the divi to grow every year too, protecting my capital.

On top of that, my company pension (not huge but it would comfortably cover my current lifestyle) will kick in at 62, plus my web business has been picking up over the last few years, and while it only brings in 15% of my current income, it'll keep doing that with very little effort in future, plus I may just decide to expand it in "retirement". So in my case I feel that retiring at 46 is overkill!

As for driving an older car, well it's all a matter of preference. I love my car, it may be older, but it handles like a rental car, it's never broken down on me, I'm not scared to drive it on dirt roads, it packs the family, my (non electric) bike, dirty hiking gear, the odd pair of muddy dogs and many other things I wouldn't do in a new 3 series or C class like my friends are driving.

DSTV I also couldn't justify. I'd much rather use that R625 a month to go out to watch the very few big games with my friends. And when you compound the costs it really adds up. I moved into my own place 12 years ago. Back then DSTV was R349 a month, today it's R625 a month, that's an average inflation of 5.5%.

If I'd invested on the JSE back then like I am now, I could have easily gotten 15% growth p/a. Today that would have been worth R164k! What would you have, a few hours of repeats every week or R164k? It's a no brainer. If I do the same for the next 12 years, keeping the 15% growth but upping inlfation to the current 6%, in 12 years when I decide to hang up the ties I'll have another R300k (R150k in inflation adjusted money) to play with.

I could always work a few more years and seriously increase my wealth, but as the saying goes, nobody on their deathbed has ever said "I wish I had spent more time at the office.".

8089
Shares / STXIND
« on: July 12, 2013, 12:18:58 am »
STXIND 16.41 cents - LDT: 2013-06-21

8090
Shares / Re: Long term investments
« on: July 11, 2013, 07:33:38 pm »
Since we were getting off topic here I split the retirement related posts into a new thread here: http://www.shareforum.co.za/shares/reaching-financial-freedom/

8091
Shares / Re: Reaching financial freedom
« on: July 11, 2013, 06:29:56 pm »
You are correct gcr but only for "your" lifestyle. It differs from person to person. I personally have friends that recently retired with Provident Funds of R1.2 and R1.5M (no pensions) and with their homes paid off, they still live in comfort after 2 to 3 years. Not sure about their long term "comforts" though as they know nothing about investing.
I have been living off R12 to R15 000 pm after tax and lack for nothing. I don't even want to buy a house. I rent a fully furnished flat with good sea views and enjoy free fishing and free sightseeing and once a week an eat out. No smoking. Lots of beer though.
Now, my aim is R2.5M that I hope to achieve this year and switch to Indi. Of the 35% ave gains, I will only use 6% pa. That will give me a good leeway for a 50% correction.

Couldn't agree more (and it's not often Orca hears that  :D). The key is to focus not on wealth but on happiness, and as we've all heard, more stuff not only doesn't mean more happiness, but more maintenance, higher insurance premiums, more things to worry about, and replace when needed. We live in an environment that encourages consumerism. Want a new fuel swallowing X5 or golf gti but can't afford it. No problem, here's a car loan at eleventeen percent. Shoes already 3 months old, get new ones, just charge it, 19% interest. Ooh the new iphone 5 is out and your iphone 4 is looking stale, don't worry, just sign this contract for R469 a month for 24 months and get updated!

The strange thing is that all of the above is completely normal in our society. I'm the weird one because I drive my 2004 nissan to avoid a car loan. I'm weird because I don't spend R7500 every year on DSTV, because you know, you need it for the sport... What? You walk 1.2km to work every morning instead of driving, and bike to go see your son? Are you mad, seriously go see a shrink now!!

Aside from my sons expenses, thanks to his mom's taste in all things pricy, I could also live happily somewhere between R10k-R15k per month, and not want anything I didn't have, eating well, living well, enjoying life. If I got rid of the damn expensive maintenance and upkeep on my house I'd be in an even better situation, but I bought it when I was still under the "Ooh I got a raise, let's spend it" spell.

Every time you spend money on something you don't really need, you're committing yourself to work for another period of time to pay for it. Meaning less time for you to spend with the family, on a new hobby, or having some cool adventure. Basically, throwing money away shortens your life. Some people claim to love work, but if it paid no money do you think they'd still be doing that?

I'll be donating my work outfits to charity in 12 years time, and then figure out what I want to do with my time rather than work to pay for stuff I don't really need. At the moment it starts with heading off to go sailing for a couple of years with my son. Then when he goes to varsity I plan on biking the americas, for as long as I feel like it. Then I might go settle with a loved one in a small town in Thailand, or build my dream electric car. Of course all of these things could change, but the freedom to be able to make these choices remains.

Interestingly, if you can save 50% of your net salary every month, your working career only needs to be 17 years long, and you can keep living as you've been living. If you can manage to save 60% of your salary, it's only 12.5 years, and at 70% it would be just 8.5 (figures courtesy of Mr Money Mustache). Let's solve youth unemployment by retiring before 50 and giving the youngsters a chance to show us what they can do.  ;D

8092
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: July 11, 2013, 05:30:55 pm »
So house sold, money in, about a month late so I miss the party with the cheap prices. How do you guys think we look in the near future?

8093
Shares / Re: Long term investments
« on: July 11, 2013, 11:27:36 am »
Orca is not a fan of diversification ::)

Yet he is a fan of the satrix indi... Confusing chap that  :D

8094
Shares / Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« on: July 09, 2013, 05:14:34 pm »
For me the market is the ALSI, and long term means keeping my classification as an investor in the beady eyes of SARS. So could I beat the ALSI, with shares that I couldn't take profits from until 3 years had passed? Unlikely for my current understanding of the investment world.

Those are great numbers MP, but were there losses on other shares in the same time? Did your average return exceed 28.8% and 16.05%?

8095
Shares / Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« on: July 09, 2013, 12:05:10 pm »
I don't believe you can beat the market. Personally I think it's a losers game

If that is the case, why are we here? not like on earth, but at shareforum?  :P

Haha ok, I'll rephrase: I don't believe you can beat the market LONG TERM!

8096
Shares / Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« on: July 09, 2013, 09:57:15 am »
I don't believe you can beat the market. Personally I think it's a losers game, so in reality my money goes into exchange traded funds. I believe this so strongly that I made up an investment game to prove my point.

Only thing is, I am beating the market, but I'm attributing that to luck and it shouldn't last. Incidentally out of 341 competitors, the ETF I use (satrix indi) is sitting in 22nd position, so it does beat 93.5% of competitors. Not a chance I'll try beat that in reality. In the long run I can pretty much guarantee it would kick my ass.

8097
The Investor Challenge / Re: investor challenge
« on: July 08, 2013, 05:29:10 pm »
So it's up for me from here.

Love your confidence Orca.  What happened to ZaiyanZ, can't find him/her? And I guess, well done P although I have trouble thinking of you and O apart like this. ;D

I also recognise a few ex-PSG online forum contenders, or maybe just new people with same names perhaps?  i.e. Sallie, Frikkie, Shi (Shi1)?

SaiyanZ is back at 166 where that portfolio belongs  :D

Thanks, though I have to admit, it's more luck than skill, I made only mildly educated guesses! That said, my grandmother is known to read tea leaves for people, so maybe there's a little sage in me too  ;)

8098
Shares / Re: Does anyone here gear their investments?
« on: July 08, 2013, 02:33:01 pm »
It's the exact same question I ask myself all the time. The only reason I haven't done exactly that is the potential end of QE which may knock a chunk off the price (in which case I will cash in the bond and buybuybuy).

What you need to take into account in your case is what you could expect from the three year returns. Luckily for you that's the timeframe FT.com uses, so If you look at the following chart you'll see all the trailing 3 year returns: funds.ft.com/uk/Tearsheet/Performance?s=STXIND:JNB:ZAR

The best returns were from April 2003 to 2006 at 127.9%!

The worst on the other hand were from March 2006 - 2009 at just 16.1%.

Now that was a pretty big crash, but you would have still been up, but definitely below the prime - 1.5% I get on my bond even after adding in the +-2% dividends the indi pays.

So in the end it's a gamble, but if you were willing to consider the best and worst trailing 5 year returns I think you'd struggle to find a historical case where it loses out to your bond rate... But like I said. I'll wait for QE to end before I do it myself.

8099
Shares / Re: Tax
« on: July 08, 2013, 11:00:15 am »
Just got all my ducks in a row this weekend. Printed out what I could but will give my accountant my Login details if she needs more info.
Looks bad atm as I really churned my account for 4 years. Mixed trading with investing on the same account.
We live and learn.

Glad you're sharing so the rest of us can learn before we make the same mistake. My new rule of thumb is not to buy anything I'm not willing to hold for three years. And at the moment that means I'll only buy ETFs.

8100
The Investor Challenge / Re: investor challenge
« on: July 08, 2013, 10:50:27 am »
You can also be a penny share faker and try to be number 1 for almost two months in a row :)
...  :laugh:

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