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6031

The Investor Challenge / Re: How does this work

« on: June 08, 2016, 03:59:00 pm »

Hey Thor, welcome. It's quite simple actually. First you have to register and login on the forum. Once that's done just go to www.investorchallenge.co.za and click on the buttons on the top.

Start with "My Holdings" to see how much cash you've got, then go to "Buy Shares". It should be fairly straight forward. You'll probably also want to create a group so you can compare how you do against each other.

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Shares / Re: My retirement blog.

« on: June 08, 2016, 03:50:01 pm »

According to the biggest study ever taken (Trinity study):
3% is so close to a sure thing you can't tell the difference.
4% works in 96% of cases for a 30 years retirement

Not only does it work, in half of those cases, someone who retired and drew 4% for 30 years ends up three times as wealthy as they were when they began. And guess what, those numbers are on a 50% stock, 50% bond ratio, you'll be even wealthier if you go 100% stock, in most cases...

You can basically spend growth minus inflation forever, so if SA grows at 12% with inflation at 6% then a 6% drawdown is fine.

The big variable I see as you correctly mentioned is the Eur/Zar exchange.

If you feel like a really detailed look, here's the best piece of writing I've found on the 4% rule: http://www.gocurrycracker.com/what-is-your-retirement-number-the-4-rule/

And here's a good read if you want confirmation that 100% stock is the way to go: http://www.gocurrycracker.com/path-100-equities/

Sounds like you're having a fantastic time Orca, I'm rather jealous of all your adventures, but mine are coming!

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Off topic / Live chat

« on: June 08, 2016, 11:51:42 am »

Ratings agency Fitch has affirmed SA's investment grade credit rating and maintained its stable outlook, but says low GDP growth posed a risk.

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Off topic / Live chat

« on: June 07, 2016, 08:43:50 pm »

They're here: http://www.shareforum.co.za/competition/com_rankings_group.php?group_id=1

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Shares / Re: Junk Status - how to prepare

« on: June 07, 2016, 05:15:17 pm »

Quote from: Moonraker on June 07, 2016, 04:30:52 pm

Read attached.

That's quite sobering reading...

Quote from: Mr_Dividend on June 04, 2016, 07:57:03 am

******was going to chuck this into chat, but figured it's too long and has a pic, so chucking it here as it's kinda on topic **************

Patrick, looking at the R/$ chart since 1995, do you think the rand more more likely hit R10/$ or R20/$ in 5 years time? How much of the growth in the JSE has just been the devaluation of the rand and not actual growth?

For me, the rand is becoming a very fragile currency - as we've seen with nenegate - it's doesn't take much to rock it badly and I think people need to plan for it. Personally, I have a pretty bleak outlook on the country - even if we say goodbye to Zuma, the rot is too deep - and if the EFF get in, well, that's just curtains.

On the bright side, there are plenty of ways to invest in hard currency alternatives - without your money leaving these shores. From dual listed companies, to companies where most of their earnings come from overseas, to pure oversea plays incl. the DBX's and of course, some lovely overseas REITS that also give you a hard currency income.

Someone with a gift for writing and an interest in the subject should consider writing a blog on the subject....

5 Years, definitely R20 before we see R10 again. The question is, will the market outpace the depreciation in the currency. The last 12 months was a complete loss. The other factor moving me towards getting my money out sooner rather than later is that the longer I wait, the more I'll have to pay in capital gains. It's not even really capital gains, but really just an inflation tax, which sucks even more.

If we'd stayed in the early R14's where we were a few weeks ago I would have made the transfer, but before I could line things up we were staring at R16 again...

I'm in the last few years of my working career, so I just don't feel like taking on this massive currency risk right now. It makes planning for the future nearly impossible.

Then there are a few things keeping me with my money in SA:

Orca says our market should outdo the US/Europe. He's far better at calling these things than I am.
The ANC could lose a few metros, and maybe even then recall Zuma
The public protector is investigating state capture, the odds are she will find something very wrong with Gupta and Zuma
People say ratings downgrade is already priced in, so it won't be too much worse even if we do get downgraded

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