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Messages - Orca

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826
The Investor Challenge / Taking gambles peeves me off.
« on: November 06, 2015, 11:54:38 pm »
I wonder how many contestants in the competition would actually buy the stocks for real.
I do as I am managing other peoples money. Taking a gamble will send you either to the top or the bottom. But as I said, it is a gamble for shear desperation of winning the competition and no consideration of money management for clients.
Perhaps I got it wrong and misread the whole intention as stated.

 

827
Shares / Re: ADAPT IT
« on: November 06, 2015, 06:55:01 pm »
I know exactly what you are saying. Expect a pullback on Monday as traders take profit. Then again, it may just go up again as the tech sector is expected to outperform other sectors.

828
Shares / Re: ADAPT IT
« on: November 06, 2015, 05:18:31 pm »
You should have bought yesterday. Up nearly 6% today.

829
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: November 04, 2015, 02:01:45 pm »
TEX has historically been flat and volatile so nothing new.

830
Shares / Re: Metair. Titan or Titanic?
« on: November 02, 2015, 08:10:53 pm »
The Turkey Lira has made an about turn for 2 months from it's decline and the outright win of the AK party making it a stable one party state had the Lira jump the highest since 2008.
This is great for Metair's Mutlu flagship and is already reflecting in it's share price.
The conflict in it's neighbor, Syria is now on the backbench.

831
Shares / Re: ADAPT IT
« on: November 02, 2015, 02:33:59 pm »

832
Shares / Re: Sunday Times Top 100 JSE Companies 2015
« on: October 30, 2015, 03:13:34 pm »
Total BS.
Fortress is the best but I have a problem with some.

MTA on the list but here is the performance. (never paid a divi)
1 YR....-15%
2 YR....-21%
3 YR....  0%
5 YR....+173%

ADI NOT on the list and no divies included here.
1 YR....+58%
2 YR....+201%
3 YR....+664%
5 YR....+2 032%

An investment of R50k invested 5 years ago would give you R1M today yet is not listed.
EOH is listed as number 3 but ADI beats it by a long shot.


833
Shares / Re: Pulverized Sand Box
« on: October 29, 2015, 07:13:07 pm »
If you hold KIO, you would need anti depressants. Good news is that you can get it for free.
Just show the pharmacist your marriage certificate and a pic of your wife and he will give you as much as you want. Always works for me.

834
Off topic / Live chat
« on: October 29, 2015, 05:25:52 pm »
ADI...my star stock goes stratospheric!

835
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: October 29, 2015, 04:10:58 pm »
Not too bad today jaDEB. We are substantially overbought in the short term and it has to pull back soon.

836
I found it very simple to buy a six figure sum of DIVTRX in minutes. If the spread is ridiculously high or there are no sellers then the robot will place a 5 000 share batch automatically. This equates to R137k at a time. You just need to wait a few minutes for the robot to place the sale.

837
Shares / Re: Early retirement
« on: October 27, 2015, 09:06:30 pm »
I have never liked miners as they are prone to strikes, accidents, exchange rate and the price of the commodity. They are for trading only. But 8% does not bother me much at this stage.
Gold price in ZAR and Dollar terms has increased over the past few months and indicates a possible rally for all commodities. I would have liked to be in NEWGOLD (GLD) for the past month or two.
All the mining stocks held in DIVTRX have reversed lately and made good gains. (not today though)

As to Managed portfolios and UT's, I must add this;
During 2008/9 I had all my pension money with Eqxxx Fund Managers and Imxx. I watched my precious pension dwindle down by minus 45% and they did nothing about it. There is a reason for that. Fund managers will not or perhaps are told not to sell in a crash as it will attenuate the crash. This is obvious.
I eventually instructed them to sell. Unfortunately it was at the very bottom. Since then, I have gone solo.

 


838
Shares / Re: Early retirement
« on: October 27, 2015, 07:51:22 pm »
Here is a 5 year chart of STXIND (shaded) compared to PTXSPY and PTXTEN. I could not include DIVTRX due to it being only 1.5 years old.
The STXIND has gained twice more than the other 2.

839
Shares / Re: Early retirement
« on: October 27, 2015, 07:28:35 pm »
@Ron. The favorite ETF's on this forum are STXIND and DIVTRX. (so far that I see).
The STXIND has the top 25 Co's and weighted by market capitalization.
The DIVTRX has about the same number of Co's but the management chooses Co's that keep increasing their dividends.
Co's that keep increasing their dividends are normally the ones that are growing from strength to strength and have good fundamentals and management.
I will post some charts here for comparison. Although my favorite one is DIVTRX, it is only a year and a half old and STXIND is skewed by the developments with SAB that has a heavy weighting in it.   

840
Shares / Re: Early retirement
« on: October 27, 2015, 03:26:49 pm »
Living off dividends is not as tax efficient as living off the occasional sale of high growth stocks. Patrick with his clever calculator has proven it on this thread already. :TU:
For the next 4 months you pay 15% withholding tax on divies. Thereafter it could be 25% putting it in line with the rest of the western world.
Normal tax on Capital Gains would be under 13% but very likely closer to zero.

Our living standards differ but if I were in Ron's shoes, I would pay off any debt asap then sell both properties. This would give him R2,7m in cash. Owning primary property is not an investment but a standard of living expense.

With R2,7m invested in no more than 2 ETF's, you could live very comfortably. The 4% rule is in my view a figure applicable to investments in cash and bonds or for people living in emerged market countries. I would raise that figure to 7% for emerging markets with no holdings in cash and bonds.

I have been retired for close on 2 years and despite the expense of setting up a new home in a different country plus 1 flat market year, my portfolio has grown by R400k.
Ron is alone and I have a wife and we both have private medical insurance.

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