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Messages - Neil

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16
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: April 27, 2014, 09:18:36 am »
I used to scrape it from the JSE, but with the website update they took down that page. Now I get it via json from Bloomberg. Why do you ask?

Im currently writing a Trading/Investment bot for the NASDAQ in C#, and I would like to integrate the JSE exchange into it as an additional exchange but mainly for testing purposes.

Its an experimental program of mine, the part of getting my data for the NASDAQ is almost finished, then ill start writing the AI side

17
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: April 25, 2014, 09:22:25 pm »
Patrick, from where do you get your JSE share data? do you use an API of some sort? scrape it from somewhere? Parse the Html code on a webpage?

Phew, what a day. As you might have realised the server almost completely crashed! Looked like another attack on one of my other sites...

Must have been a DOS attack via a botnet

18
Shares / Re: Low inflation a problem?
« on: April 17, 2014, 09:17:38 pm »
you actually need a balance. you cant have too high inflation but you cant have too low inflation.

a good level of inflation is good for the whole. ie the economy.

PS: the reason I gave previously is also a reason why controlling the interest rate controls the inflation rate

19
Shares / Re: Low inflation a problem?
« on: April 17, 2014, 01:13:26 pm »
Low inflation is bad from the standpoint that consumers feel less pressure to spend now than in the future. Where as with high inflation consumers spend now rather than later because the price of goods will be higher in the future than what they currently are.

Low inflation good for savers. High inflation good for spending

20
Shares / Re: Peer to Peer Lending
« on: April 11, 2014, 10:40:00 am »
Hey Guys,

I'm busy writing a open letter to Lendico South Africa, to detail a few of my concerns to them regarding the quality of there service as a investment destination. As I'm personally interested in such a investment (peer2peer lending), but as it stands its not a feasible investment.

The points which I'm currently raising are:
1) The low return-on-investment on a risk-return basis for investors.
2) The way in which money is transferred between investors and borrowers. Currently the investor must transfer money from his bank account to Lendico for every batch of loans which gets approved, which is going to reduce returns to the investor because the investor will have to pay transaction fees to the bank for every transfer. I think its better to rather have Lendico hold the money for you in your account and new loans are just deducted off your account and payments are credited to your account. So when you want to invest more capital then you transfer more money and pay the bank fees, and you can withdraw money from your Lendico account when you choose. It also reduces the management strain on the investor, I personally dont want to have the management strain of having to do EFTs to Lendico frequently every time I want to invest in a batch of loans, nor do I want the hassle of keeping track of payments from loans I have given to my personal bank account every month.
3) As an investor I want more information on the quality of the Loan and the borrower, I want to see the credit history of the borrower before giving him the loan, A grade, B grade C grade is not sufficient information for me to make a investment decision. Maybe give me a history of the loans the borrower has taken through lendico and other institutions with his track record of whether he has made his payments on the required dates, what payments he missed etc.
4) I want the possibility, to grant shorter duration loans, maybe 1 month, 3 month, 6 month loans. As it may help the reduce the risk of your loan portfolio. but it will help improve the cash flow of your portfolio. currently lendico only does 1,2,3,4 and 5 year term loans.
5) I also want to raise the fact that there doesn't seem to be any punishment for borrowers who default on their loans. The borrower is still obligated to pay the loan back, but the interest rate still stays the same (i think it should increase) and there is no penalty (which i think there should be).


Anything else you guys want me to raise, or any questions you want me to ask? Also is there any point which I want to raise that you disagree with? Im writing this letter for myself as well as the community.

I'll email the letter to them once I'm done writing it, and publish it here, as well as any response I receive from them. 

On a side note does anyone know if Lendico provides a IT3B tax certificate for investors, because if they dont then thats a issue I would like to raise as well. If they dont then its going to be a major issue for me in terms of managing such an investment. It could very well end up being a tax nightmare if they dont, as any payments you receive will be classified as income tax.

21
Shares / Peer to Peer Lending
« on: April 07, 2014, 10:28:38 pm »
Hey guys,

If anyone is interested, a new Peer2Peer lending site just opened today in South Africa, Lendico (www.lendico.co.za). Does anyone else know about this, and can shed further information? Looks better than RainFin. However the return is determined by Lendico and not by the Creditor or Debtor, with a A grade loan only bringing in a return of 5.73% – 7.20% (per annum i assume), I dont think the return is worth the risk.

But at least it looks like peer2peer lending in South Africa is heating up  ;D

What you guys think?

22
Shares / Re: Advice on Stock Picks
« on: March 08, 2014, 03:41:06 pm »
This is why I wouldnt touch Gijima:

http://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/anc-funder-probed-1.1654804#.UxsbQ_ldVdU

There are many other articles to substantiate this one. I investigated Gijima in late 2012 and found all sorts of articles like this one.

To cut it short Gijima's success in the past has been due to goverment contracts which Robert Gumede has gotten because he is a ANC benefactor. So without his "friends in high places" Gijima wouldnt even exist (i.e. bankrupt).

DO YOUR HOMEWORK, IT PAYS TO DO SO, AND YOU WILL LOSE MONEY IF YOU DONT. ;)

23
Shares / Re: The ANC govt's plan for expropriation on the sly. Important !
« on: February 26, 2014, 07:00:45 pm »
bunch of self serving baboons, who can only take and never create. :mad: Canada/Australia here I come

24
Shares / Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« on: February 24, 2014, 08:10:14 pm »
Neil's become very quiet. Perhaps he is studying charts?  :(

nope not studying charts, never will. Just nothing worth posting on atm. Besides Im busy with getting all my ducks in a row. Going to be studying a BCom in business management in april, exploring employment opportunities in Canada, and other general work related issues.

I always read the business news everyday, Im quite fascinated how massmart (I have shares in Massmart) keeps dropping on the back of a 37% increase in earnings as published in a recent trading statement. The market can behave very irrationally. Id buy more massmart, but Im currently putting my money away in low risk assets so I can take it with me to Canada (at least if I manage to find employment there).

 On a side note, is anyone taking note of JD group? Im looking forward to the annual results, if after the annual results the company is still priced fairly below the NAVps I might be very tempted to put some of my dividends there.

25
Shares / Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« on: February 22, 2014, 11:44:49 am »
Here is a perfect example for Neil to look at.
A long term gap that had to close. Had you invested in SAB after the gap and don't look at charts then you would not have known that she would eventually be traded down to close it.  A text book case.

Firstly as you know I dont look at the short term, I look long term. Also as you know I dont believe/trust in this whole technical "drawing lines on a graph, and trying to find a pattern, bollinger bands, oscillators" mumbo jumbo stuff, no offence. Its always about fundamentals, future free cash flow, and putting a fair valuation on a stock. If the current market price is below my fair value for the stock (by a fair margin) then buy, if not I dont. Also what the growth and expansion plans for the business are very important among other things as I have discussed before.

But relating to buying/selling SAB, It was overvalued on your october marking, before your october marking and even now its still overvalued ~26PE. I wouldnt even buy 1 share of it. I deploy my capital efficiently.


PS: I apologise if I seem cranky and confrontational. I had to have 6 stitches to a bad cut I got on my ear yesterday. So im not in the best of moods.


26
Shares / Re: My look at shares
« on: February 22, 2014, 11:23:45 am »
I dont buy it, I written software myself for the NASDAQ that pulls all the stocks and information about the stocks from the net and I can write all sorts of BS algorithms that can tell you to buy/sell this or that. Looks like real BS to me, no offence. Further if the software was so good then why are they selling it, if the software was genuine then they would keep it to themselves and under lock and key.

Not for me thank you very much, besides if I wanted software like that Id write it myself.




27
Shares / Re: Alternative Investment Oppertunities
« on: February 20, 2014, 03:50:15 pm »
I know of cambist but there are so many dodge things going around with cambist such as the issues regarding garnishee orders that i would rather stay away. Cambists product is based on being able to secure payment of loans via garnishee orders (I have no problem with garnishee orders, if you dont pay then the creditor has every right to get it from your paycheck by force) but government seems to be taking a populist view, and seems to want to make garnishee orders unlawful.

the rewards with cambist do not out weigh the risks in my view

28
Shares / Massmart Down
« on: February 20, 2014, 12:11:08 pm »
Massmart down to a new 52 week low (R111.25), on a 37% increase in earnings (http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-industrials/massmart-earnings-rise-by-37). Man the market behaves irrationally, I say exploit it  ;)

29
Shares / Re: Alternative Investment Oppertunities
« on: February 20, 2014, 11:54:23 am »
Yeah I love dragons den myself (but they really cherry pick what they invest in, which is fine but i think they miss some golden opportunities at times, and I think they ask for outrageous amounts of equity sometimes like 45% etc), but also this new program hosted by one of the dragons (cant remember his name) called "how we made our millions" is bloody fantastic ;D .

The thing about starting a peer-to-peer lending business is that for the company itself, it involves no risk (from the lending of money) yet the company still takes a cut and lets the investors take the risk. Man I love capitalism! ;D

I think african dawn capital (which I own shares in ;)) should set up a peer to peer lending division, right up their alley

30
Shares / Re: Alternative Investment Oppertunities
« on: February 20, 2014, 09:28:37 am »
Hi have been following the peer-to-peer lending industry. its been a resounding success in the UK,USA and Oz for both investors and borrowers. Basically you as the investor lend money to a someone/business that wants to borrow, basically cutting out the bank. obviously you take the risk that the bank otherwise would have, but you get a much better return. Hell if you did it in south africa you could get up to 60% interest on the money you lend out (like lewis etc do), but you can only lend up to R500000 until you must register as a credit provider with the NCR.

One of the big ones in the USA is 'Prosper'. They have apparently funded something like $3 Billion dollars in loans through this method.
One in Australia is SocietyOne.

As for South Africa there is only one I know of called RainFin. It looks functional but neglected, and does not seem to be developed any further, hence I have not used them. The other is Yiba.co however it has failed to launch, looks dead.

The reason why I think it there aren't more is that there seems to be a lack of legislation in South Africa, such as what rights does an investor have to get repayment of the loan, what are the rights a borrower has, dept collection etc etc.


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