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Messages - Moonraker

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1051
Shares / Re: CML
« on: April 23, 2013, 08:22:26 pm »


I do agree with you on your first statement, CML will really need to give steller results for quite some time to justify this price, I'm not saying it's gonna crash, nor am I selling my holding.
Simply by looking at the graph this thing is trading at a 35% premium to its 200SMA!
That's why it's still a buy, not talking about short term movements.
 BUY RULE
 Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA.
 SELL RULE
 Sell and move to cash when monthly price < 10-month SMA

With your latter comment regarding the due Bull Market I assume you meant we are due for a correction? (which did start already)
We are still in a Bull market, just had a correction. When we get the Big Enchilada, nobody knows.

1052
Shares / Re: CML
« on: April 23, 2013, 06:44:47 pm »
I agree with Orca. Using a 10 month SMA, there has never been a sell 'signal'.
PE ratios are not to be relied on and some of my shares have been on high PE's for years, obviously for a reason.
The historic PE's  (with CML for example), seem to always reduce after results, more or less in line with the estimated forward PE's, only to increase again in anticipation of continued good performance, which with CML is almost a given.

A somewhat more useful method of valuation is the Shiller PE method (CAPE). http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/


1053
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: April 23, 2013, 03:25:46 pm »
Moneypenny has already posted the PMI.  :)
Here also with Services PMI  :P
Quote
European indices trade higher across the board after disappointing PMI readings from France and Germany fueled talks of a possible rate cut at the European Central Bank's next policy meeting. French business survey declined to 88 from the prior month's 91 (90 consensus). Additionally, French Manufacturing PMI rose to 44.4 from the prior reading of 44.0 (44.3 consensus) while the Services PMI climbed to 44.1 from 41.3 (42.0 forecast). Germany's Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 from 49.0 (49.0 consensus) while the Services PMI declined to 49.2 from 50.9 (51.0 expected). Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.5 from 46.8 (46.8 expected) while the Services PMI rose to 46.6 from 46.4 (46.6 consensus). Italian consumer confidence rose to 86.3 from 85.3 (85.1 expected). The United Kingdom's CBI Industrial Trends Orders came in at -25 to follow the prior reading of -15 (-14 forecast).

In news, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has been quoted as saying the policy of austerity "has reached its limits."

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/market-summary.aspx#ixzz2RIBthieG

1054
The Investor Challenge / Re: The challenge has begun
« on: April 23, 2013, 02:00:59 pm »
JaDEB is doing well. As things stand he is ahead of Warren Buffet.

1055
Shares / Re: FSR vs SBK
« on: April 23, 2013, 01:19:14 pm »
SBK
TRI (Total Return Index .. includes divs.)
1 yr.   = 2.12%
2 yr.   = 9.44%
5 yr.   = 8.32%
10 yr. = 19.12%

FSR
TRI (Total Return Index .. includes divs.)
1 yr.   = 28.15%
2 yr.   = 28.85%
5 yr.   = 22.65%
10 yr. = 23.43%

Which one has the 'bigger' Africa footprint (more representation in rest of Africa is an advantage going forward, imho.)
No data found for SBK.
For FSR..
As a percentage of Assets    Percent
RMB                            42.73%
FNB                            29.79%
Wesbank                    15.80%
Corporate Centre            13.10%
Other                             7.36%
FNB Africa                     5.10%
GTS                             0.39%
Consolidation & IFRS adjustments -14.27%
 
As a percentage of Net Profit    Percent
FNB                             42.42%
RMB                             24.06%
Wesbank                     21.44%
FNB Africa                      7.99%
Corporate Centre              6.72%
Other                              3.21%
GTS                              1.14%
Consolidation & IFRS adjustments -6.98%

1056
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: April 21, 2013, 03:07:20 pm »
Week ahead - US.


1057
Shares / Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« on: April 19, 2013, 02:07:54 pm »
This should make you feel just a little bit better jaDEB ..

Quote
Gold extended gains above $1,400 an ounce on signs that jewelers and other users of the metal are taking advantage of the biggest slump in prices in three decades. Silver headed for the worst week in almost 19 months.

The premium for metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is as much as $10 an ounce, in Turkey it’s almost $20 and in Asia it’s about $5, Bernard Sin, head of currency and metal trading at bullion refiner MKS (Switzerland) SA in Geneva, said by e-mail. Last week, it was about $1 in Asia and Dubai, he said.

“Physical demand is extraordinary,” Sin said today.

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 2.6 percent to $1,426.05 an ounce and was up 1.6 percent by 11:53 a.m. in London. Prices are down 16 percent this year and dropped to $1,321.95 an ounce on April 16, the lowest since January 2011. Gold futures for June delivery climbed 1.4 percent to $1,412.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York.

Gold Gaining as Physical Demand Said to Be ‘Extraordinary’

1058
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: April 18, 2013, 05:52:59 pm »

1059
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: April 18, 2013, 04:17:43 pm »
Hey, looks like futures are a poor predictor of how markets in the US will open. The futures pointed to a higher opening, yet shortly after the opening all down quite a bit.

1060
Shares / Re: Long term investments
« on: April 18, 2013, 02:10:37 pm »
Smoking Out Safe 4% Dividend Yields

With BTI, litigation is more or less factored in and expected. The plain packaging laws in Australia with ugly pics. of the consequences of smoking will have little affect on sales. Yep, nice stock I first got into in 2008. Great dividends over the years.

1061
Off topic / US Debt Clock - Real Time
« on: April 18, 2013, 01:31:35 pm »
Is this really 'Off Topic"  :)  :)

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

1062
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: April 18, 2013, 09:28:36 am »

1063
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: April 17, 2013, 07:26:51 pm »
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Apple (AAPL) shares fell below $400 for the first time since December 2011 on the back of weaker-than-expected-results from one of its suppliers, Cirrus Logic (CRUS). Apple shares reached levels not seen since January 2012.

Cirrus Logic, which provides chips for Apple's products, missed estimates when it reported preliminary results Tuesday night. The company said revenue for the fourth quarter grew 87% to $206.9 million. That was below analysts' estimates of $210.2 million.


1064
Shares / Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« on: April 17, 2013, 07:01:17 pm »
I just think (not good at it though) that gold is oversold, and of course some1 on radio said that the rand will weaken in the 2 years or so.

Also, say I sell DRD tomorrow, where do I put it. That has such a potential recovery ...

The crux of the clip ? Nobody knows the fair value and things could go the other way. Useful eh ?  ;D
Never take the advice posted on forums.  ;)
If you don't trade because like me, you have better things to do than sitting in front of your computer worrying about when to set
stop losses etc. then rather go for stocks like BTI and SAB and Bidvest and APN and hold them through the years. They too will all
benefit from a weakening Rand. (Edit: and CML of course - yield, yield, yield !)
That way you have less worries and more time for gaming, and I have more time for playing with my Linux distros.  8)


1065
Shares / Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« on: April 17, 2013, 05:44:58 pm »
Warren Buffet - some things he said that you probably have heard. ;)

Quote
“What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow,” Buffett wrote last year in a letter to shareholders. “During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As ‘bandwagon’ investors join any party, they create their own truth -- for a while.”

Quote
“If you put your money into gold or other non-income- producing assets that are dependent on what someone else values that in the future, you’re in speculation,” he said. “You’re not into investing.”

Quote
He asked readers to picture the world’s entire gold stock melded together into a cube 68 feet (21 meters) on each side valued at $9.6 trillion at then- prevailing prices. For the same amount, an investor could have purchased all the farmland in the U.S., 16 replicas of Exxon Mobil Corp., and still have about $1 trillion of “walking- around money.”

A century later, the farmland will be producing valuable crops no matter the currency, and dividends from the companies would probably added up to trillions of dollars, Buffett wrote.

The 170,000 metric tons of gold “will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything,” he wrote. “You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.”

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