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Messages - Moonraker

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826
Shares / Re: Any thoughts on Invicta Holdings
« on: November 11, 2013, 01:31:45 pm »
I think the interims released today are damn impressive considering all the disruptions in the mining sector and challenging conditions in S. Korea.
Certainly better than VOD's results also released today, but at a much lower PE than VOD.

It's a hold in my real LT portfolio.

INVICTA HOLDINGS LIMITED
Registration number: 1966/002182/06
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
Share code: IVT
ISIN: ZAE000029773
(Invicta or the Group or the Company)
www.invictaholdings.co.za
UNAUDITED INTERIM RESULTS for the six months ended
30 September 2013
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
REVENUE up by 46%
OPERATING PROFIT up by 57%
EARNINGS PER SHARE up by 15%
DIVIDEND up by 15%


IVT Interims

827
Shares / Re: All things ZA economic outlook
« on: November 11, 2013, 11:06:25 am »

If the best profit we/me can make on  long term financial investments is around 30% PA(which would be great if inflation wasn't so much),is it really worth investing?
Wow, I can see why you call yourself Delusionsofgrandeur  :) Give me 30% pa any day, and I will beat the JSE ALSI to hell and gone, and you can throw in inflation as well. If measured in $ returns, well that would still not be a train-smash.
(PS. buying and selling houses is a crappy way to invest).

 

828
Off topic / chrome nice extension
« on: November 10, 2013, 06:45:08 pm »
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/http-switchboard/mghdpehejfekicfjcdbfofhcmnjhgaag?hl=en-GB

Quote
HTTP Switchboard (free and open-source software) let you easily white- or blacklist net requests which originate from within a web page according to a point-and-click matrix:

- domain names

  * from very specific
  * to very generic

and/or

- type of requests
  * cookies
  * images
  * objects
  * scripts
  * XMR (requests made by scripts)
  * frames
  * others

The goal of this extension is to make allowing or blocking of web sites, wholly or partly, as straightforward as possible, so as to not discourage those users who give up easily on good security and privacy habits.

Eg. shareforum

1. Scripts disabled (except those blacklisted)
2. Scripts enabled (for those smileys and stuff)
(Note: only demonstrating, nothing to worry about).

829
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: November 08, 2013, 06:59:54 pm »
Now the markets are totally screwed up. US going strong with the great results. Technicals were in overbought and overvalued region and now increasing. Thought the good news will tank markets but they going up. WTF is going on? QE to end sooner should have prevailed and tanked the US by now.
You are right in your thinking, but the feeling now is that the economy is strong enough to withstand tapering ..

Quote
Equity futures initially erased earlier gains after a Labor Department report showed payrolls in the U.S. increased more than forecast in October. After a report yesterday showed third-quarter gross domestic product grew faster than yesterday, today’s data fueled speculation the Fed will cut stimulus sooner than expected.

The contracts then reversed their losses as investors considered whether the signs of strengthening growth is evidence that the world’s largest economy can withstand less Fed support.

830
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: November 08, 2013, 03:56:23 pm »
Very stong jobs numbers ..

The S&P 500 futures and Treasuries tumbled to their lows in reaction to a better-than-expected October jobs report. The S&P 500 futures trade lower by 0.4% while the 10-yr yield is higher by 11 basis points at 2.72%.

October nonfarm payrolls came in at 204K versus the 100K expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Nonfarm private payrolls added 212K against the 110K consensus. The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.3%, as expected by the Briefing.com consensus.

Hourly earnings ticked up 0.1% while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.2%. Average workweek was reported at 34.4, in-line with the consensus expectations.

September personal income rose 0.5%, above the increase of 0.2% expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Meanwhile, personal spending rose 0.2%, in-line with the Briefing.com consensus.

Lastly, core PCE prices ticked up 0.1%, as expected.



SRC= Nasdaq.

Tapering more likely to occur earlier than April 2014. Before end Jan. 2014 probably.

831
The Investor Challenge / Re: investor challenge
« on: November 04, 2013, 03:39:05 pm »
Ah I see, didn't look carefully and saw only RDF - different kettle of fish.
But yes, it is confusing as although RIN was suspended on 28/10/13, they were only delisted on 4/11/13.
He could not have purchased any RIN after 25/10/13 (a Friday), but certainly was able to purcahse RPL on
1/11/13 as trading in them commenced on Monday 28/10/13.

Basically the Purchase date entry should read:-

RPL    REDEFINE INTERNATIONAL PLC
_____________________________________________________________________________________________

Last day to trade in RIN linked units on the JSE                                         Friday, 25 October

RIN linked units suspended “ex” the unbundling                                           Monday, 28 October

Proposed listing date of RI PLC on the JSE from the commencement of trade on             Monday, 28 October

Trading in RI PLC shares with the JSE share code: RPL and ISIN:                          Monday, 28 October
IM00B8BV8G91 commences on

Record date to participate in the unbundling and the de-listing                          Friday, 1 November

Tax apportionment announcement pursuant to the unbundling                                Friday, 1 November

Accounts at CSDP or broker updated in respect of dematerialised RIN linked               Monday, 4 November
unitholders

RI PLC share certificates posted to certificated RIN linked unitholders on or            Monday, 4 November
about

De-listing of RIN linked units from the JSE at commencement of trade                     Monday, 4 November

832
The Investor Challenge / Re: investor challenge
« on: November 04, 2013, 03:12:27 pm »
Ah ok, somehow he bought on the 1st of Nov for 13c a share. I assume there was some hold on that day so it should have been impossible to purchase correct? If that's the case I'll just roll back the transaction.
He purchased them in April. I hold those in my real portfolio and would have been crying if the price went from 780 to 13c (or 19c on some sites). Their closing price on suspension date was 780 (the last price at which RIN traded ) - as confirmed in my brokers statement.

The challenge will be to get the div. right.

Once you have corrected this, JaDEB will creep up the board again, for which I want special thanks.  :))
Mind you further upwards movement is pretty limited for him.  ;)


833
The Investor Challenge / Re: investor challenge
« on: November 04, 2013, 01:45:31 pm »
Patrick,

It was a one for one spin off. Last price of RIN was 780 (i.e. price before suspension and subsequent delisting).
RPL started trading on JSE 28/10
VW's gain is thus "0"  O:-) --unless the price has gone up in the meantime.

There will be a dividend 'in specie' of  57.92cpu without the deduction of witholding tax (as I see it). See http://www.sharenet.co.za/v3/sens_display.php?tdate=20131101120800&seq=24
I am not sure exactly when the div. will be paid, but I think on 29/11/13







834
Shares / Re: Oceana Group Ltd
« on: November 04, 2013, 09:23:20 am »

835
Shares / Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« on: November 03, 2013, 12:58:59 pm »
For what it's worth, bumping this thread.
Read it or leave it - up to you.

The Grand Superstition

(Source = http://hussmanfunds.com)

Quote
The misattribution of cause and effect in 2009 created the Grand Superstition of our time – the belief that Federal Reserve policy was responsible for ending the financial crisis and sending the stock market higher. By 2010, this narrative was so fully accepted that the Fed’s announcement of further “quantitative easing” was met by equally great enthusiasm by investors.

Complicating matters, the European Central Bank forestalled a currency crisis in Europe through massive purchases of debt from credit-strained member countries. While this action was interpreted as quantitative easing, it actually functioned as a funding operation to weaker countries that was much more akin to a fiscal subsidy from stronger countries like Germany. Still, the fact that it was executed by the central bank and eased the Euro crisis helped to contribute to a perception that central bank purchases of government securities – in and of themselves – are sufficient to support the stock markets indefinitely. Worse, perception creates its own reality in the financial markets, so provided enough investors believe something to be true, the outcome is the same as if it really were, but only for a while.

Don’t misunderstand. Quantitative easing has undoubtedly been the primary driver of stock prices since 2010. But the benefit of having a human intelligence is the ability to evaluate the extent to which there is any mechanistic link between the cause and the effect. If there is not, investors may be resting their confidence on little more than perception and superstition. This is exactly what historical data indicates.

In the case of quantitative easing, there is one variable that is tightly, logically, and consistently linked to Fed actions. We have nearly a century of evidence that the amount of base money created by the Fed (per dollar of GDP) is strikingly related to the level of short-term interest rates. The chart below illustrates this relationship in data since 1929. Yet the same effect is not observed with anything close to the same strength for long-term bond yields. Worse, looking over the full course of history, there is virtually no relationship between the monetary base (level, change, ratio to GDP) and stock returns (regardless of whether one examines concurrent returns, subsequent returns, yields, or estimated prospective market returns).
................................>>>


PS. The default font size when quoting is too small for me, would be nice if the default was 10pt

836
Shares / Re: LDT - Dividend amounts and Last Day to Trade
« on: November 01, 2013, 03:10:05 pm »
Sorry, no time to enter all in the table.

Code: [Select]
Name........... LDT............ Pay date....... Amt(c)
PSG (PSG) 1 Nov 2013 11 Nov 2013 43.00 ZARc
OASIS (OAS) 8 Nov 2013 18 Nov 2013 43.08 ZARc
OCTODEC (OCT) 8 Nov 2013 18 Nov 2013 78.90 ZARc
PREMIUM (PMM) 8 Nov 2013 18 Nov 2013 66.20 ZARc
PINNACLE (PNC) 8 Nov 2013 18 Nov 2013 41.00 ZARc
REMGRO (REM) 8 Nov 2013 18 Nov 2013 201.00 ZARc
VIVIDEND (VIF) 8 Nov 2013 18 Nov 2013 23.00 ZARc
AFGRI (AFR) 15 Nov 2013 25 Nov 2013 3.30 ZARc
B-AFRICA (BGA) 15 Nov 2013 25 Nov 2013 708.00 ZARc
DELPROP (DLT) 15 Nov 2013 25 Nov 2013 32.51 ZARc
LONFIN (LNF) 15 Nov 2013 11 Dec 2013 .40 GBPp
PETMIN (PET) 15 Nov 2013 25 Nov 2013 3.00 ZARc
REDEFINE (RDF) 15 Nov 2013 25 Nov 2013 35.00 ZARc
RI PLC (RPL) 15 Nov 2013 29 Nov 2013 1.64 GBPp #
SPANJAARD (SPA) 15 Nov 2013 25 Nov 2013 15.00 ZARc
BRAIT PREF (BATP)22 Nov 2013 2 Dec 2013 443.21 ZARc
CONVERGE (CVN) 22 Nov 2013 2 Dec 2013 12.00 ZARc
DAWN (DAW) 22 Nov 2013 2 Dec 2013 16.50 ZARc
DATATEC (DTC) 22 Nov 2013 2 Dec 2013 8.00 USDc
STEINHOFF (SHF) 22 Nov 2013 2 Dec 2013 80.00 ZARc
ADCORP (ADR) 29 Nov 2013 9 Dec 2013 60.00 ZARc
AFRIMAT (AFT) 29 Nov 2013 9 Dec 2013 11.00 ZARc
CARGO (CRG) 29 Nov 2013 9 Dec 2013 15.00 ZARc
FAMBRANDS (FBR) 29 Nov 2013 9 Dec 2013 130.00 ZARc
HOLDSPORT (HSP) 29 Nov 2013 9 Dec 2013 75.00 ZARc
NUWORLD (NWL) 29 Nov 2013 9 Dec 2013 59.40 ZARc
CMH (CMH) 6 Dec 2013 17 Dec 2013 28.00 ZARc
PICKNPAY (PIK) 6 Dec 2013 17 Dec 2013 14.80 ZARc
PIKWIK (PWK) 6 Dec 2013 17 Dec 2013 7.20 ZARc
VALUE (VLE) 10 Jan 2014 20 Jan 2014 9.00 ZARc
CLICKS (CLS) 17 Jan 2014 27 Jan 2014 119.50 ZARc
AFRO-C (ACT) 7 Feb 2014 17 Feb 2014 15.00 ZARc

# According to SENS of today, looks like unitholders of RPL will receive 57,92 cpu due to the
UNBUNDLING OF THE RI PLC SHARES TO RIN LINKED UNITHOLDERS

837
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: October 31, 2013, 06:54:12 pm »
"Increased expectations for additional liquidity provisions from the ECB after eurozone unemployment (12.2% actual, 12.0% expected) and CPI (0.7% actual, 1.1% forecast) disappoint."

Rather dovish going forward, means really no compelling reason to move out of equities right now. European bond yields all down.
(I think 2014, before mid year, will see a pretty substantial correction in equities, given the games the FED and Abe of Japan are
playing).


838
Shares / Are the PE ratios for dual listed stocks 'overstated' here ?
« on: October 31, 2013, 04:20:30 pm »
Take SAB.

Per LSE. (Last available and latest published results)

Earnings =157,35 pence p.share (financial year ended 31/3/2013)
Price       = 3460p  (29/3/2013)
PE           = 22

LSE Now.

Earnings = 157,35 pps (as above because latest)
Price       = 3272 pps (i.e. lower than then)
PE           = 20,79

In SA.

Price     = 524.00 (Was lower @485.00 on 31/3/2013 as opposed to LSE price on 31/3/13 which was higher).

But our PE here in SA = ±30

All due to exchange rate weakening, which caused an increase in stock price.

So, I reckon that those analysts who harp on the terrible overvaluation of such stocks may be somewhat misled ??????


839
The Investor Challenge / Re: investor challenge
« on: October 30, 2013, 06:47:29 pm »
Could you let me know when Redefine International stock will be converted to RI Plc and relect the correct price?
Done and dusted. (suspended 0n 28/10; to be delisted 4/11)

The salient dates and times applicable to the transaction are set out below:
                                                                                                       2013
Results of the general meeting and finalisation announcement published on                Friday, 18 October
SENS on

Results of the general meeting and finalisation announcement published in the            Monday, 21 October
press on

Last day to trade in RIN linked units on the JSE                                         Friday, 25 October

RIN linked units suspended “ex” the unbundling                                          Monday, 28 October

Proposed listing date of RI PLC on the JSE from the commencement of trade on             Monday, 28 October

Trading in RI PLC shares with the JSE share code: RPL and ISIN:                          Monday, 28 October
IM00B8BV8G91 commences on


Record date to participate in the unbundling and the de-listing                          Friday, 1 November

Tax apportionment announcement pursuant to the unbundling                                Friday, 1 November

Accounts at CSDP or broker updated in respect of dematerialised RIN linked               Monday, 4 November
unitholders


RI PLC share certificates posted to certificated RIN linked unitholders on or            Monday, 4 November
about

De-listing of RIN linked units from the JSE at commencement of trade                     Monday, 4 November

840
Shares / Re: CML
« on: October 25, 2013, 02:02:39 pm »
Hah, you are wrong Moonraker. Was fun while it lasted.  :D

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