601
Some. See my comments your Buying Opportunities thread. Plus now we have Hong Kong. Very concerning.
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602
Shares / Re: Buying Opportunities - Sept 2014
« on: September 23, 2014, 01:01:33 pm »
Overdone ? Well maybe from a technical aspect, but not from a fundamental and macro economic view.
Just read your Bloomberg, check the PMI's and services indices, and remember that Italy is in recession and
France for all intents and purposes as well. German industrial ouput is sharply down and their PMI and services index
are hitting new lows. China is not going for QE type stimulus and is slowing, despite the occasional small upward blip
to their PMI.
So all we have is the USA with a little growth and hence the prospect of rising rates sometime in the first half of 2015.
This is all translating to a stronger dollar and generally weak commodity prices. ZA can only counter with a weaker Rand.
So, where is the good news that is supposed to get us out of overdone territory ?
I am of course cheesed off that my portfolio is suffering, but it's not too bad as I mainly have Rand Hedge stocks and
defensives.
Just read your Bloomberg, check the PMI's and services indices, and remember that Italy is in recession and
France for all intents and purposes as well. German industrial ouput is sharply down and their PMI and services index
are hitting new lows. China is not going for QE type stimulus and is slowing, despite the occasional small upward blip
to their PMI.
So all we have is the USA with a little growth and hence the prospect of rising rates sometime in the first half of 2015.
This is all translating to a stronger dollar and generally weak commodity prices. ZA can only counter with a weaker Rand.
So, where is the good news that is supposed to get us out of overdone territory ?
I am of course cheesed off that my portfolio is suffering, but it's not too bad as I mainly have Rand Hedge stocks and
defensives.
603
Thanks XXXX. Got confused with divies and CGT. I have non property stocks and I presume Delusional also.
Tax brochure for non residents and withholding tax on immovable property (>2mil.) may be of interest ...
606
Shares / China’s bad loans could bust world economy
« on: September 17, 2014, 08:43:40 am »
This is what I am very afraid of. Commodity bulls, watch out.
China’s bad loans could bust world economy
The risk of what Nobel laureate Paul Krugman calls “Japanification” – a semi-permanent economic funk – has haunted China for at least a couple years now. Last week a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report again asked: “Will China repeat Japan’s experience?”
Let’s dispense with the suspense: Yes, China very likely will. And the outcome will have far more serious global implications than the chances of stagnation in Europe. China’s “severely under-capitalised financial system”, “imbalanced growth” and chronic “overcapacity” all remind Merrill Lynch analysts Naoki Kamiyama and David Cui of Japan in 1992, when its bubble troubles first began to paralyse the economy. China is even more reliant on exports than Japan was in the 1990s, and its all-important property market now “may be tipping over”.
Most worrying is the shaky banking sector and the lack of bold action in Beijing when the scale of Chinese bad debt may be higher than Japan’s ever was; they believe non-performing loan ratios are “significantly into double digits”. In the first half, the analysts estimate, commercial banks had to book larger non-performing loan liabilities than for all of last year.
<<<<<<Snip>>>>>>
The popular tonic is that China has $4 trillion of currency reserves to toss at its bad-loan problem. Yet any move to turn China’s US treasuries, European debt and Japanese bonds into cash could precipitate a global rout. A Chinese crash would hammer commodities markets, industries from manufacturing to hi-tech, and credit ratings of export-reliant economies from Australia to Japan to Brazil. It would be an untimely blow to the US and a fragile Europe.
China’s bad loans could bust world economy
The risk of what Nobel laureate Paul Krugman calls “Japanification” – a semi-permanent economic funk – has haunted China for at least a couple years now. Last week a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report again asked: “Will China repeat Japan’s experience?”
Let’s dispense with the suspense: Yes, China very likely will. And the outcome will have far more serious global implications than the chances of stagnation in Europe. China’s “severely under-capitalised financial system”, “imbalanced growth” and chronic “overcapacity” all remind Merrill Lynch analysts Naoki Kamiyama and David Cui of Japan in 1992, when its bubble troubles first began to paralyse the economy. China is even more reliant on exports than Japan was in the 1990s, and its all-important property market now “may be tipping over”.
Most worrying is the shaky banking sector and the lack of bold action in Beijing when the scale of Chinese bad debt may be higher than Japan’s ever was; they believe non-performing loan ratios are “significantly into double digits”. In the first half, the analysts estimate, commercial banks had to book larger non-performing loan liabilities than for all of last year.
<<<<<<Snip>>>>>>
The popular tonic is that China has $4 trillion of currency reserves to toss at its bad-loan problem. Yet any move to turn China’s US treasuries, European debt and Japanese bonds into cash could precipitate a global rout. A Chinese crash would hammer commodities markets, industries from manufacturing to hi-tech, and credit ratings of export-reliant economies from Australia to Japan to Brazil. It would be an untimely blow to the US and a fragile Europe.
610
Shares / Re: SAB - dead in the water
« on: September 15, 2014, 07:57:05 am »
SABMiller Plc (SAB) was rebuffed in an attempt to buy smaller brewer Heineken NV (HEIA)
Quote
SABMiller Plc (SAB) was rebuffed in an attempt to buy smaller brewer Heineken NV (HEIA), a deal that would have strengthened itself against a potential bid by Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI), people with knowledge of the matter said.
614
The shortfall on South Africa's current account widened more than expected to 6.2% of GDP in the second quarter of the year from a shortfall of 4.5% previously, hit by prolonged strikes and lower global demand, the central bank said on Tuesday.