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Messages - Moonraker

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586
Off topic / Live chat
« on: October 16, 2014, 03:11:16 pm »
U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 264K (expected 290K)

588
Off topic / Live chat
« on: October 15, 2014, 02:52:32 pm »
U.S. September Retail Sales Fall 0.3%; Excluding Autos Drop 0.2%....Ah... that's why the sudden $ weakness.

589
Off topic / Live chat
« on: October 15, 2014, 01:46:43 pm »
Measured in real terms (constant 2012 prices), retail trade sales increased by 2,1% year-on-year in August 2014. The highest annual growth rates were recorded for: retailers in hardware, paint and glass

590
Off topic / What is this site talking about - US markets closed today ?
« on: October 13, 2014, 06:42:42 pm »
http://www.fin24.com/Markets/Currencies/Rand-firmer-as-US-holiday-offers-reprieve-20141013

Poor reporting, stupidity or what ? Markets are of course open.  :wtf:

591
Shares / Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« on: October 11, 2014, 12:46:16 pm »
More pain coming on Monday, Orca. Blame the situation in Europe. On Friday there was a glimmer of hope that the US markets would show an upwards blip at the close. However no such luck. Market tanked after Standard and Poors cut France's economic outlook from stable to negative.
Your broker is living in cloud cuckoo land :) It will take a long time for the all share index to reach it's July peak of 52242,12 points. Let's just hope that the correction will bottom out soon. (I am not very hopeful).

All share more or less exactly 10% down from July peak of 52242,12

One can but hope ...

Quote
The overall Johannesburg market could follow Assore in a technical upswing, with the 14-day RSI - a momentum indicator tracked by some chartists - showing the main indices are oversold and due for a bump.

Many of the stocks are in oversold territory based on technicals. RSI's and other momentum have broken lower today, in some cases significantly," said Lloyd Priestman, a market analyst at asset manager Caleo Capital.

"We should see some short-term support from these levels as medium to longer term investors look for buying opportunities, given the recent sell off, he said.

(Friday 17:33)




592
Off topic / Live chat
« on: October 10, 2014, 03:53:48 pm »
@ Patrick - see under the market crash thread.

593
Shares / Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« on: October 10, 2014, 03:53:01 pm »
Patrick asked a question that I will answer briefly here.

REITS have fallen quite a bit since June 2013 due to interest hike fears from the FED and thus worldwide, including ZA.
However they seem to have discounted a local repo rate increase of 1%. So far the repo rate has only increased by 0,75%.
REITS are closely correlated to the ZA bond yield, unfairly because they increase their distributions yearly due to rental escalations.
The R186 bond yield has tended lower lately (i.e. their price is higher) @ about 8,15% which is supportive of REITS.
However there is a cautionary. Higher vacancies due to oversupply and the economic woes, plus higher costs due to administered
price increases like electricity that have to be somehow passed onto tenants.
So they are not immune.
The relatively immune ones are those like RES, with large holdings in NEP(I) and ROC, and of course NEP and ROC on their own. They have invested in Eastern Europe and other markets that are hungry for the mall experience. They are also Rand Hedges (or Rant if you are JaDeb).
I am overweight REITS but am nevertheless worried, especially as regards the locally invested ones.
I warned about a crash/severe correction some time ago, but especially last week Friday when Orca wanted to buy, buy, buy.
  :-X


594
Off topic / Live chat
« on: October 10, 2014, 01:48:27 pm »
Have you noticed ? REITS seem to be least affected. Most unchanged - some (RES) even up.

595
Shares / Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« on: October 05, 2014, 04:03:58 pm »
I reckon a crash scenario is imminent, similar to 2008/9. Will start selling some come Monday 6/10/2014. CML would be hard hit, but a crash will take
everything down to a greater or lesser extent. Expecting anything between 20% to 50%. (Yes gcr, SARS will not suffer too much).
Two possibilities; sell some/all now, or ride out the crash, but it may take many years to get back to Fridays price levels.
Nothing was learnt in 2008, sovereign debt is now even higher !

Edit: Only my opinion, obviously you all have your own thoughts.

Check the F&G Indicators ! Fear & Greed Index


596
Off topic / Live chat
« on: October 03, 2014, 03:15:17 pm »
The U.S. jobless rate declined to a six-year low of 5.9 percent in September and employers added 248,000 in payrolls, followed a 180,000 August increase that was bigger than previously estimated. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey=215,000

597
Shares / Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« on: October 03, 2014, 12:30:49 pm »
Time to revisit this old thread.
Albert Edwards Says Watch Japanese Yen and Be Very Afraid

Quote
Almost 100 percent of investors think we’re at the start of a long recovery,” Edwards said. “It’s already a long recovery. Forget about starting from here.

Remember a 33⅓ % drop means you need a 50% rise to get back to where you were. :)

598
Off topic / Market needs a bit of 'turbo shove'
« on: October 01, 2014, 01:43:23 pm »
Market needs a bit of a shove like this ....


599
Off topic / Live chat
« on: September 30, 2014, 06:54:17 pm »
Thanks to whoever sorted it :)

600
Off topic / Live chat
« on: September 30, 2014, 12:12:57 pm »
My Glencore have zero value in Leaderboard. Result dropped from high teens to 79. WTF.

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