556
Read this (my sentiments exactly). http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-safm-market-update/budget-panel-discussion-chris-hart-melanie-millesk
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559
Shares / Re: Anyone here invest offshore?
« on: February 08, 2015, 01:29:32 pm »
See What's the best way to invest offshore?
I am too old and lazy too emigrate (did it twice before, once to Germany and once to Portugal, like Orca), but would go the asset swap route as a ZAR based investor. Charges are pretty high whatever you choose.
Quote
If you value simplicity, and don’t particularly want to expatriate your assets, there are a number of rand-denominated offshore unit trusts accessible locally. The advantages of this route include lower entry levels in terms of how much you have to invest and relatively few administrative requirements.
You can also invest without the need to use your offshore investment allowance, which means you don’t need to buy foreign currency or get tax clearance from SARS. The investor gains access to offshore markets through an asset swap mechanism, although they are still exposed to currency fluctuation.
I am too old and lazy too emigrate (did it twice before, once to Germany and once to Portugal, like Orca), but would go the asset swap route as a ZAR based investor. Charges are pretty high whatever you choose.
562
Shares / Re: Pulverized Sand Box
« on: January 21, 2015, 06:38:47 pm »
@JaDEB,
Thanks, if you enjoyed it, maybe I will too.
Thanks, if you enjoyed it, maybe I will too.
563
Shares / Re: Twitter
« on: January 18, 2015, 10:31:26 am »
I block all that crap .. tracking..tracking etc. With uMatrix.
566
Shares / Re: Oil price and Sasol
« on: January 13, 2015, 05:31:25 pm »
I tend to agree that the per barrel price will fluctuate somewhere between 40$-65$, without much upside to that as the frackers will toggle production on or off depending on the price. Sure the more marginal producers are shutting down as we speak and further capex is also being postponed. However one must bear in mind that fracking technology has improved to a great extent, so that for most of the established frackers, 20$ per barrel is sustainable, but you are right, and a lot depends on an economic recovery in the EU and also in China.
The 40$-65$ range could be with us for quite some time.
Edit: Quite frankly I have absolutely no idea whatsoever where the price of oil is going. Anyone having the answer to that is a charlatan !
All I wish for is to have electricity and no national grid collapse which would take us back to Victorian Times. Check out the BBC production "Victorian Farm" on DVD to see how they used to cope.
The 40$-65$ range could be with us for quite some time.
Edit: Quite frankly I have absolutely no idea whatsoever where the price of oil is going. Anyone having the answer to that is a charlatan !
All I wish for is to have electricity and no national grid collapse which would take us back to Victorian Times. Check out the BBC production "Victorian Farm" on DVD to see how they used to cope.
567
Shares / Re: Oil price and Sasol
« on: January 13, 2015, 03:51:02 pm »I posted this on BDLive this morning......
Oil prices are notoriously speculative at the best of times. The cost of producing the marginal barrel (the one that creates either excess demand or supply) is generally where the price should settle in an efficient market. If we assume the oil from shale condensate is the marginal barrel then around US$65 is probably reasonable. This also happens to be the price you reach when you extrapolate a long term trend line from around 2005. Anything above or below this price is typically down to speculators.
Commodity prices trade in lumpy jumps and we should quite quickly see the price going back to around 60 to 70. Hopefully the Rand will strengthen in this time which will still leave us with a fairly low BFP price to which the government adds their taxes and levies, giving us the pump price. Remember that with low oil prices, the SA oil import refiners such as Shell, BP, Engen, Total are probably making more money on their refining side than on their marketing side. This is because refining margins are probably growing as crude oil prices (their purchases) are dropping faster than refined product prices (their sales). Sasol benefits when oil prices are high as they sell at the BFP price for refined products but their cost inputs are mostly cheaper gas and coal and less crude oil.
Either way we are in for an interesting year. Expect equities and commodities to remain weak this year as interest rates in the US rise and the USD remains strong. Hopefully the Rand will be able to hold its own as our SA economy (finally) starts to improve.
Once costs are sunk, some can produce at $0,99 per barrel.
In the U.S., Exxon spent an average of $12.72 to extract a barrel of oil last year, its cheapest operating region aside from Asia and Europe, company figures showed. Some operators have even lower costs: Continental Resources Inc. (CLR) spends about 99 cents to pump each barrel from its 1.8 billion-barrel discovery known as the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province, or SCOOP. Continental, controlled by Oklahoma billionaire wildcatter Harold Hamm, discovered the SCOOP in 2012.
Once oil companies sink cash into drilling wells, lining them with steel pipes and concrete, blasting the surrounding rocks into rubble with hydraulic fracturing, and linking them to pipeline systems, they have no incentive to scale back production, said Andrew Cosgrove, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence in Princeton, New Jersey.
Exxon Mobil Shows Why U.S. Oil Output Rises as Prices Plunge
568
Shares / Re: Is the Euro still a Rand Hedge ?
« on: January 07, 2015, 03:13:37 pm »Thats good for me.£ against €, yes you are right, but not really against R.
The £ is gaining strengh on the R and €.
Do you have £ investments ?
(Another downgrade by S&P and co. plus ongoing power interruptions, can of course reverse the current R 'strength' drastically).
569
Shares / Is the Euro still a Rand Hedge ?
« on: January 07, 2015, 01:06:31 pm »
With deflation in Europe, exacerbated by the low oil prices, plus practically zero growth, the € is tanking and has lost heavily against the Rand on a yearly basis. So, be careful when selecting stocks that derive all their earnings from the Euro Zone ?
Your thoughts ?
The inflation rate in the euro area fell below zero for the first time in more
than five years, bolstering the case for more European Central Bank stimulus.
Prices dropped 0.2 percent in December, the European Union’s statistics office
in Luxembourg said today. That’s the lowest rate since September 2009.
Economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted a decline of 0.1 percent.
Unemployment held at 11.5 percent in November, Eurostat said in a separate report.
Your thoughts ?
The inflation rate in the euro area fell below zero for the first time in more
than five years, bolstering the case for more European Central Bank stimulus.
Prices dropped 0.2 percent in December, the European Union’s statistics office
in Luxembourg said today. That’s the lowest rate since September 2009.
Economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted a decline of 0.1 percent.
Unemployment held at 11.5 percent in November, Eurostat said in a separate report.
570
Shares / Re: My retirement blog.
« on: December 19, 2014, 09:09:45 am »Hi I can't find a thread for my question so I hope you don't mind me asking it here.
Does anyone know of a website that lists all the Sectors and then the relevant industries and then the companies in these industries and then all relevant info such as P/E and ROE ect....
Something like this http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s_conamed.html[/b]
Hope someone can help me. Just started a few days ago and doing research on stock trading. Been reading Stock Investing For Dummies. My first book.
Special secret
https://itradedata.co.za/index/i_sector.htm