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Messages - Moonraker

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31
Shares / Re: I want to experiment with dividends
« on: December 10, 2017, 02:59:41 pm »
Quite frankly, in a market like it is now, I wouldn't do any 'experimenting'. Remember elective conference, moody's towards end Feb, SONA and budget could all move the needle quite severely either way for different sectors .... 

32
Shares / Re: Steinhoff
« on: December 10, 2017, 12:26:16 pm »
Let's hope that C. Wiese is not going to be forced to sell his personal share holdings in Brait, PSG, Tradehold, KAP etc. as intimated is possible in the interview.
Mentioned at ± 6:10


33
Shares / Re: Naspers
« on: December 10, 2017, 11:47:04 am »

34
Shares / Re: I want to experiment with dividends
« on: December 09, 2017, 04:13:10 pm »
H - seems a fair spread - one share may disappoint and that may be Checkers as one doesn't know what the fallout from Steinhoff may be. If Wiese has a fire sale on Steinhoff he may have to lighten his holdings in Checkers to prop up Steinhoff. He could also find a moneylender who may advance him cash based on his holdings in Checkers. All I am saying is that these guys are trying to juggle balls but they are all shaped like rugby balls so as they drop they could bounce anywhere. But hey that's all part of the learning and knowledge journey
I saw your comment on Moneyweb, do you think that despite the options having been exercised, the conditions precedent may halt the investment in SHP?
Quote
The implementation of the investment in Shoprite is subject to a number of conditions
precedent as set out in the Pre-listing Statement, which include, inter alia, merger filings with
various African Competition Authorities. To this end, the filings are being completed and will
be submitted to the relevant authorities in the foreseeable future.


Shareholders will be informed once all the conditions precedent for the implementation of the
transaction have been met.

35
Shares / Re: I want to experiment with dividends
« on: December 09, 2017, 12:15:25 pm »
Hamster, you were on the right track with RES (check out their audited results for FY ended 30/6/17 look under "Prospects"). Then add SRE and NRP and the first 6 mentioned by gcr.

1 year return to 8/12/17 with dividends reinvested:-
RES = 36,7%
SRE =61,66%
NRP = N/A (due to merger with Rockcastle)
BID =29,22%
BVT = 19,3%
AVI = 20,18%
DSY = 37,42% (not on chart)
CLS=55,43% (not shown on chart)
(VOD 4,75%) Only for dividends - there won't be much in the capital gains department.

The chart shows pure capital gains without dividends reinvested...


36
Shares / Re: Naspers
« on: December 08, 2017, 12:42:17 pm »
When analysing the JSE one should pay especially close attention to Naspers. The share makes up 25% of the JSE Top 40 Index and 21% of the All Share Index. Any movement in the Naspers share price has a significant effect on the JSE.
Since the start of the year the JSE All Share Index has gained by 18%. However, if Naspers is excluded the gain would have been just 9%. Part of the reason is the sheer size of Naspers with a market capitalisation of just under R1.7 trillion.
The Naspers share price has rocketed by over 90% since the start of the year. Price gains have been 24% over the past three months, boosted by strong financial results from Naspers and from Tencent, which alone makes up over 100% of Naspers’ market capitalisation.
Analysts have upgraded Tencent’s earnings forecasts yet again based on significant revenue growth across all divisions. Analysts have also upgraded their valuations of Naspers’ remaining e-commerce assets. The capital expenditure in these e-commerce assets of the past few years is starting to bear fruit. An increasing number of these businesses have begun to monetise their business models.
The outlook for Tencent remains positive. It has grown to such a point that its sheer size and dominance have become a reinforcing competitive advantage. Scottish Mortgage, the largest investment trust listed on the London Stock Exchange with a market capitalisation of over £6 billion, has Tencent as its third largest holding, comprising 6.8% of the portfolio. The managers of Scottish Mortgage highlight that the digital arena is dominated by just six companies, including Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent in China and Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook in the US. The investment managers of Scottish Mortgage: “Continue to believe that the competitive positions of these digital network businesses will be further cemented by the power of their massive data sets and new advances in computing.”
Although the share price has surged 90% since the start of the year, Naspers has never been so cheap in terms of its discount to net asset value (NAV). Its listed holdings add up to over R5,400 per share, which means the share price is trading at a massive 32% discount to NAV.
Despite the glowing outlook for Naspers and the compelling value offered by the shares prudential investment guidelines advise against allocating the JSE’s full 25% weighting in lower risk portfolios.
While a lower than market weighting to Naspers raises the risk of underperforming the JSE All Share Index, the priority in lower risk portfolios is to avoid losses which result from excessive portfolio concentration. Like all shares, even Naspers has risks attached

So reports Overberg Asset Management

37
Shares / Re: Steinhoff
« on: December 08, 2017, 09:17:00 am »
The Shoprite related call options have been exercised, we all know that, but will this actually come about? The options were exercised before the brown stuff hit the fan.

Quote
The implementation of the investment in Shoprite is subject to a number of conditions
precedent as set out in the Pre-listing Statement, which include, inter alia, merger filings
with
various African Competition Authorities. To this end, the filings are being completed and will
be submitted to the relevant authorities in the foreseeable future.

Shareholders will be informed once all the conditions precedent for the implementation of the
transaction have been met.

38
Shares / Re: Naspers
« on: December 08, 2017, 08:54:23 am »
Gotta improve today. Tencent up ±3½ % and R. is weaker allround.

39
Shares / Re: Naspers
« on: December 07, 2017, 03:18:35 pm »
Should we be worried? IMHO probably not.

The Way of Gupta? Pressure mounts for Naspers as MultiChoice faces fires on multiple fronts

Quote
..the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission has also been asked to launch an inquiry into Naspers. Comparisons between Naspers and the Gupta-owned company Oakbay, meanwhile, are inevitable.

40
Shares / Re: Naspers
« on: December 06, 2017, 06:38:42 pm »
I'm not really too worried about NPN, although I'm a bit disgusted at the accusations - NPN is tencent and interestingly enough, has actually dropped less than tencent in the past week, so it does not look like investors are too concerned about the skelmstreke, BUT, with the SNH catastrophe, people might start worrying - I see AVV dropped quite a bit today, and they also seem like a boere mafia bunch :-[
I am also not worried about NPN at all. CW's reputation is shot to pieces. Wherever he has his fingers in the pie there is bad stuff happening SNH, BAT, even Stellar Capital ..
It is an unmitigated disaster and has wiped some 220T off my portfolio balance - thankfully I am well diversified.

41
Shares / Re: Steinhoff
« on: December 06, 2017, 02:26:27 pm »
From Reuters..

TAX RATE QUESTIONS

Analysts have long questioned how Steinhoff managed to achieve such a low tax rate. Its tax rate has averaged 12 percent over the past five years -- half the headline corporate tax rate in its main markets and less than half the rates paid by listed competitors including France's Casino, Germany's Metro AG and South Africa's Woolworths.

Experts say such low tax rates can be the result of complex corporate structures which stretch accounting rules and such arrangements are occasionally challenged by courts as unlawful.

"The company recorded a very unusual tax rate of c. 15 percent and also guided that this would be the rate going forward," Juergen Kolb, an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux, said in a note, adding that if this tax rate was at risk it could also hit Steinhoff's cashflow.

Kolb also raised the possibility that as chairman, Wiese's role could now come under scrutiny too.

Steinhoff did not respond to requests for information about what, if anything, Wiese knew about the accounting problems now being investigated before Tuesday.

Investors also told Reuters they are concerned Wiese may be forced to sell shares he bought last year with borrowed money.

Wiese borrowed 1.6 billion euros ($1.9 billion) to buy additional Steinhoff shares through a family trust in September 2016, pledging 3.2 billion euros of his existing holding as security to the investment banks that lent the money.

With the share price plunge taking the security below the value of the loan, Wiese may be required by the financing banks -- Citi, Goldman, HSBC and Nomura -- to post more shares as collateral, or sell part of his holding. ($1 = 0.8459 euros)


(Reporting by TJ Strydom; additional reporting by Tanisha Heiberg, Tom Bergin and Alasdair Pal; writing by Alexander Smith; editing by Tom Pfeiffer and Keith Weir)

42
Off topic / Live chat
« on: December 06, 2017, 02:13:27 pm »
 SNH there are fears that investigations may also extend to Wiese.

43
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: December 06, 2017, 09:57:28 am »
Steinhoff N.V -61.53%, ShfInvpref -5.19%, "buy when there is blood in the streets."
Only if you are prepared to wait 10 years in this case.

44
Off topic / Live chat
« on: December 06, 2017, 08:42:38 am »
..from the fire into the frying pan. CW is a wealth destroyer. ;)

45
Off topic / Live chat
« on: December 05, 2017, 03:30:55 pm »
SNH shooting the lights out .. to the downside. Unaudited results tomorrow.

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