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Messages - Moonraker

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271
Shares / Re: Tax - Foreign Investments
« on: July 20, 2016, 10:43:31 am »
General info..

5.1.3 FOREIGN DIVIDENDS:
• The amount in respect of ‘Gross foreign dividends subject to SA normal tax’ must
be inserted next to source code 4216. The exemption in terms of section 10B(3) on
foreign dividends subject to SA normal tax will be applied programmatically by SARS.
The exemption is calculated in terms of the formula A = B x C (ratio of 25/40).
• Foreign tax credits on such foreign dividends: If any withholding tax was paid on
the foreign dividend received, this amount will appear on the certificate received from
the institution administering the investment. The gross amount of withholding tax must
be declared next to source code 4112.


Foreign dividends
The tax rate for foreign dividends is determined according to a formula and will depend on the actual marginal rate of the taxpayer and can therefore be less than the maximum effective rate of 15%. A taxpayer who receives foreign dividends must also include the gross amount of the foreign dividends (total amount of foreign dividends gross of any foreign withholding taxes) in his or her tax return.

Foreign dividends are however in most cases (unless the shareholder holds more than 10% of the issued shares in the foreign company) subject to a partial exemption. This exemption is calculated by using the following formula: 25/40 x gross foreign dividends.

By way of example, assume Mr X received the currency equivalent of R1 000 000 (gross) in foreign dividends. His foreign dividends were however also subject to the currency equivalent of R150 000 in foreign withholding taxes already deducted from the dividend payment. His net receipt was therefore R850 000. If Mr X also received, for example, R1 000 000 from an SA living annuity, the following will apply:

Include the full R1 000 000 living annuity as gross income.
Include the full R1 000 000 foreign dividend as gross income.
Total gross income = R2 000 000
Apply the foreign dividend exemption against the gross foreign dividend income – 25/40 x R1 000 000 = R625 000. R1 000 000 – R625 000 = R375 000.
His taxable income will therefore be the gross living annuity receipts (R1 000 000) plus the taxable foreign dividend amount of R375 000 = R1 375 000.
This is then taxed according to the tables and for this income level the taxable amount plus the marginal rate for this tax year is R185 205 + 40% of the amount above R638 600 = R479 765.
Total tax payable = R479 765 (R150 000 of this represented by the foreign dividends and ignoring any SITE/PAYE that may have been withheld on the living annuity).
Therefore, his effective rate on the foreign dividends is 15% (before rebates). The effective tax rate will therefore vary depending on the actual marginal rate applicable.
An amount of R150 000 has however already been withheld in the foreign jurisdictions as foreign dividend tax and this can be applied as a credit against the actual tax payable:

R479 765 – R150 000 = R329 765
His total South African tax payable is therefore R329 765.
Equally, if there was no foreign dividend withholding tax or an amount of less than the SA tax liability withheld on the foreign dividends, the foreign dividends would attract local taxation either in full or on the difference between the lesser amount of tax suffered in the foreign jurisdiction and the SA tax payable.

272
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: July 16, 2016, 04:42:29 pm »
Maybe. But mainly due to USA data.
Retail sales, manufacturing reports give Fed scope to tighten.
Traders see a 38 percent probability the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by year-end, up from 35 percent Thursday, as the economy shows signs of resilience.

273
Off topic / Live chat
« on: July 06, 2016, 06:20:25 pm »
@zizebra Defensive stuff MDC AVL BTI have so far been OK

274
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: July 01, 2016, 04:11:36 pm »
On collision course with EU who want signing of Lisbon treaty now now. BUT..
Michael Gove said that the legal notification won’t be made this year if he becomes prime minister, echoing comments made by Theresa May.
They want to negotiate the terms of exiting now, EU says only after signing.
What's your take on this Snr. Orca ?

275
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: June 30, 2016, 05:21:21 pm »
@czc You are 100% right, but 2/3 years is a long time in politics (particularly now in the EU). All depends on the Le Penn woman's progress.
Italy is a better bet, already Rome is in the hands of the Five Star party.
http://www.thelocal.it/20160606/what-you-need-to-know-about-italys-five-star-movement

276
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: June 30, 2016, 03:39:47 pm »
Things are looking better in ZA. Huge trade surplus (latest)/Foreigners buying gilts and stocks/and ABInBev merger monies to flow in (maybe Oct/Nov).
If either Italy (48% want to exit EU) or France (41% want to exit EU) hold a succesfull Brexit style referendum, EU will be between a rock and a
hard place. Could then be that UK looks good in comparison (my opinion). ZA with higher yields may also continue attracting inflows to JSE and bond market.
What do you think ?

277
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: June 29, 2016, 04:28:49 pm »
Chris Hart:-

“I fear that Brexit will be used as a cover for our own problems,” he said.
“South Africa is not growing, its heading into recession – if not already in one
- and it’s all self-inflicted.

For sure.

278
Shares / Re: Brexit consequences.
« on: June 29, 2016, 12:26:00 pm »
Bloomberg ..

Granted, if the EU refuses to budge, other nullification scenarios remain in
play. Since the law doesn't rule it out, for instance, parliament might override
the referendum.

Conceivably, if that happened, the Leave campaign and its 17 million supporters
would then say, "Oh, all right, if you feel that strongly, we'll stay."

Conceivably, the current spasm of paralysis in Westminster will lead to an early
general election, with the traditional parties melting down and candidates
aligning on Leave and Stay platforms, and the new Stay Party promising another
vote with the threshold for Brexit set at 80 percent.

Conceivably, the Stay Party would win the election. That could happen.

Conceivably, Boris Johnson will join the ranks of the tearful voters who say
they didn't really mean it, and could they please vote again, while Nigel Farage
will explain he was only joking, and tell people to stop taking him so
seriously.

Conceivably, Britain will ask itself what it could do to seem even more
ridiculous in the eyes of the world, and go sobbing to Brussels to ask for
forgiveness.

So, yes, I can imagine Britain reversing itself on Brexit. But it's a bit of a
stretch.

279
Off topic / Live chat
« on: June 27, 2016, 04:48:54 pm »
Yes it is. See Brexit consequences post.

280
Shares / Brexit consequences.
« on: June 27, 2016, 04:47:49 pm »
Don't expect return to normality any time soon. This is bad. Taken from a US viewpoint, but applies everywhere.

We all know by now that Britain voted to leave the E.U.: the so-called Brexit is
underway.

Unfortunately, it isn’t that simple as far as investors are concerned. What
matters now is what happens next. What are the broader implications of the
decision and what moves can be taken to at least minimize the damage, or maybe
even profit from the market disruption?


Let’s look at each of those questions separately, starting with the political
and economic implications.

Consequences Of The Vote

1. The U.K. Prime minister, David Cameron will step down. Cameron has already
announced this, but interestingly will resign effective in three months time,
which leads to the second point...

2. Nothing will happen quickly. This is an unprecedented event; there is no
blueprint as to how that actual exit will proceed, and negotiations will
probably drag on for years

3. In a broader sense, it will endanger the European Union. The victory for the
“Leave” campaign in Britain will embolden and strengthen anti-EU voices in other
countries. Those voices are already being heard, most significantly in France,
Italy, and Greece. Whether they succeed or not will largely depend on the extent
of the visible economic damage to the U.K. over the next year or so. A complete
collapse of the E.U., and therefore the Euro, is unlikely, but possible, and
would be devastating to the global economy if this takes place.

4. It will endanger the U.K.’s existence. In many ways, this threat is more real
and immediate than the one to Europe. Sinn Fein, the old political wing of the
IRA, has already called for a vote on a united Ireland based on the fact that
Northern Ireland voted to remain. Given that Scotland voted overwhelmingly in
the same way, renewed calls for a referendum on their independence will surely
come. If the nationalists in both cases get their way and then make it a single
issue vote, they would probably win.

5. Both the U.K. and the Eurozone will suffer economically over the next couple
of years. Every economic entity that has studied the effects of a Brexit has
concluded that this will be the case. Even the pro-leave campaign has admitted
as much and the massive drop in the Pound tells you that the market believes it
to be true. Recession looks almost certain in the U.K. and distinctly possible
in Europe.

6. That weakness will spread to the U.S. economy. This is less certain, but
looks likely to some degree. Trade accounts for 30% of U.S. GDP and Europe,
including the U.K., makes up 11% of that. The direct impact should not,
therefore, be too large, but the knock on effects of slow or negative growth
throughout Europe will still have an effect. At the very least, fears of that
have made it much less likely that the Fed will raise rates this year.

From a strategy perspective, then, there are several conclusions that can be
drawn.

What Investors Can Do Now

1. At some point, U.S. stocks will represent value. Of course, what matters here
is the timing. Usually, when the market is positioned wrongly going into news,
the immediate reaction is an overreaction, but this is different. This may be an
event, but it has long-term economic consequences, and as they sink in further,
selling early next week would be no surprise. Wait and see is the best policy,
but by the end of next week some value should present itself.

2. Yield is the place to hide. Given the likely impact on the Fed decision,
dividend payers such as utilities and telecom stocks, and things like REITs and
maybe even MLPs will outperform the broader market

3. Stick to the U.S. market. The huge drops in the British, European and
Japanese stock markets may look tempting, but they are the result of very real
potential problems.

4. If you are investing for more than a few years in the future, do nothing.
Times like this just have to be ridden out by long-term investors. If you have
extra cash to invest, wait a while and then begin dollar cost averaging in once
the dust has settled. If you feel you must do something, then a small investment
in something like VXX, which tracks the VIX or SDS, a leveraged S&P 500 Bear ETF
will provide some insurance and give you some profit to offset losses if the
drop continues.

The thing to remember above all else is that the only thing that is certain at
this point is that there will be uncertainty. The decision by the U.K. voters
will have a lasting impact, both politically and economically, but how severe
the effect will be on U.S. investors cannot be known. There will be volatility
as things play out and it will take a lot of patience to ride that out, but
ultimately that will, as is most often the case, probably turn out to be the
best policy.

281
Off topic / Live chat
« on: June 26, 2016, 04:39:42 pm »

282
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: June 24, 2016, 02:16:30 pm »
Putin is a happy chappy (for obvious reasons - enforcement of sanctions against Russia take a back seat, Ukraine the same etc.)
Should Trump win, well he has already said 'let the Europeans fight their own battles' i.e. less NATO involvement. That's why Putin
loves Trump - implications for Eastern Europe ?
Retreat from reason

283
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: June 24, 2016, 10:19:48 am »
Let's see what happens over the weekend with Spain elections. Should Podemos win (unlikely) we can kiss EU goodbye.
(ANC stuff IS playing second fiddle to Brexit - surely no more doubters now :) )

284
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: June 23, 2016, 10:11:08 am »

285
Off topic / Re: Live chat
« on: June 16, 2016, 07:02:24 pm »
Only campaigning halted due to attack on Jo Cox (who has now died). Surely the referendum is still to be held on 23rd ? Did I miss something ?

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