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Shares / Re: The Rand
« on: March 25, 2017, 04:04:37 pm »
UK and £ going nowhere now and in the future - unless the EU disintegrates.
Quote
The pound is set to plummet as Brexit negotiations begin, amid fears of a lengthy stand-off between the UK and the European Union, City bankers are warning this weekend.
Already down about 18 per cent since last June's referendum, some analysts believe it will fall further in the coming months, stoking inflation and bringing more pain to those going abroad this summer.
Theresa May is poised to trigger Article 50, setting in motion a two-year process leading to Britain's exit from the EU.
But City experts fear no progress will be made on trade talks for months, amid tetchy rhetoric on both sides as the remaining EU members try to extract a £60 billion 'exit bill' from the UK.
Viraj Patel, a currency strategist at bank ING, said: 'Initial Brexit negotiations could see both sides playing hardball and seeking to protect domestic interests.
The pound would bear the brunt of the greater political uncertainty.'
Patel expects the pound to fall to as low as $1.15, against $1.23 today. A stand-off would also hit the euro, but by a smaller amount, meaning holidaymakers travelling to the eurozone over the summer will see the cost of their holidays rise, possibly getting €1.11 for every pound rather than €1.15 currently.
Patel warned there are other big risks for sterling. A Scottish referendum prompting the chance of the break-up of the UK would drag the pound as much as 8 per cent lower against the dollar, while sterling's reserve currency status is also under threat.