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Messages - Delusionsofgrandeur

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46
Shares / Re: All things ZA economic outlook
« on: November 19, 2013, 01:30:28 pm »
Quote from: Moonraker on November 19, 2013, 10:52:20 am
Yes, sure doesn't look as good as one would think for investing in ZA if you are living in S. Korea.

10 yrs. ago you were looking at about 180 Won to 1 Rand.
Now ± 100 Won to 1 Rand. That is a 44½ % depreciation of the Rand vs. the Won.

(Can someone factor this into the chart ?)




Oh man,just what I don't want to hear.but its true.This article would suggest Rand hedge investments.

I wonder if I should just send the money back to S.K and invest here.It would mean I lose money on the exchange rate but its already done.

This question may be abit off topic,but what would you guys do assuming there were no language barriers?Would you send your cash and invest overseas or are you currently doing so?


47
Shares / Re: Tax
« on: November 18, 2013, 03:35:59 pm »
Ok,thanks Orca,I understand completely now.

48
Shares / Re: All things ZA economic outlook
« on: November 18, 2013, 02:30:19 pm »
Cheers,here's Samsung electric vs OMN.Samsung seems to have outperformed Omnia for a while up until recently.

P.E ratio of 7.5.

49
Shares / Re: Tax
« on: November 18, 2013, 11:25:54 am »
Quote from: Orca on November 18, 2013, 11:12:53 am
As long as you keep records of purchses and sales. Keep a file for each tax year. Calculate the average base cost (use the Due By You as it includes the costs)  and keep it as Open Stock in the first page of your file.
Most important is for you to keep track of the date and cost of your shares.
Once any share in your portfolio reaches 3 years and 1 day old SARS is obliged to treat it as CGT if you sell any portion of it.

So why don't all people do that,open up multiple accounts for multiple stocks,besides it being a pain in the butt to set up?In that way they avoid paying 40% tax on all their stocks instead of the ones that they actually have to sell before 3 years or sell frequently.

From what I understand now is that it is not you that are seen as a trader or an investor,but rather your accounts that are seen as investment or trading accounts.Am I right or delusional?

Also,if I am correct is this all legal?

50
Shares / Re: All things ZA economic outlook
« on: November 18, 2013, 11:13:00 am »
Quote from: Moonraker on November 18, 2013, 09:17:48 am
Quote from: Delusionsofgrandeur on November 18, 2013, 08:16:07 am
Quote from: Moonraker on November 16, 2013, 09:08:51 am
The inclusion of trade data for Swaziland, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia (SACU member countries), has almost halved the
trade deficit, which includes the current account deficit. The timing is a mystery; why only now ?

Some see window-dressing in S. Africa data changes

Anyway that, and Janet Yellen are the reasons for the stronger Rand these past couple of days.

You think the rand will increase in value or even plateau at this point in this year?When will it start to steadily strengthen?Hard to speculate ,right.Not even 24 hours after your comment the rand took a little dip after its peak.
Have a look at Sudden and severe tapering by the US Fed could crash the rand by Magnus Heystek
We will see a weaker Rand in 2014 - anything between 10.50 to 12.00 to the US$ depending on whether tapering is mild or severe.
I agree with Heystek on that. However I don't fully agree with his comments on listed property, due to the 7% average consensus prognosis
of distribution increases in 2014 (unlike with bonds where your yield is fixed). Maybe a 20% max. decline is what one could expect.
You should be in rand hedge stocks.
If you are living in, what was it, S. Korea ? - why bother with our market ?

I see.I tried the South Korean market,but the language barrier is a problem,making acquiring any type of information regarding trading and investing , let alone sharing tips in English a bit of a problem. I'm also thinking of the market in Hong Kong,foreigners are allowed to trade there If I am not mistaken.But I know nothing about that so I will have to do some research.

51
Shares / Re: All things ZA economic outlook
« on: November 18, 2013, 08:16:07 am »
Quote from: Moonraker on November 16, 2013, 09:08:51 am
The inclusion of trade data for Swaziland, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia (SACU member countries), has almost halved the
trade deficit, which includes the current account deficit. The timing is a mystery; why only now ?

Some see window-dressing in S. Africa data changes

Anyway that, and Janet Yellen are the reasons for the stronger Rand these past couple of days.

You think the rand will increase in value or even plateau at this point in this year?When will it start to steadily strengthen?Hard to speculate ,right.Not even 24 hours after your comment the rand took a little dip after its peak.

52
Shares / Re: Tax
« on: November 18, 2013, 06:38:03 am »
Thanks guys,this is the final petty question I have regarding tax on trading accounts.I just want to be 100 % sure off all variables.

Lets say I open 3 or 4 trading accounts for 3 or 4  different shares.Since who knows which shares would have to be sold abnormally early (before 3 years),can one just treat each share and account individually as trading or investment accounts.

This way each share can be taxed individually instead of the entire account long term investments and all getting slapped with 40% tax.

Thing is that I am not aware if this is possible,or if the tax man will object.

53
Shares / Re: Tax
« on: November 17, 2013, 02:37:35 pm »
Can paying 40% trading tax be avoided by transferring your investment stocks to another account of yours,then just buy and sell in the trading  account when you see fit,whilst keeping the later acquired account for the long term stocks and paying cgt on that and Trading tax on the other.
 Is this possible?

54
Shares / Re: Critique my Portfolio.
« on: November 17, 2013, 03:37:48 am »
Quote from: Orca on November 14, 2013, 05:13:17 pm
So while I'm in good mental health, I will go for that 4%. Once that is reached or I start acting funny, I will sell all and buy into the Indi and perhaps some OML for alpha. Like in 70%/30%.

OML's P.E ratio is not listed(cant see it),but is it not more than 20?Is this a safe long term reliable stocke in your view similar to OMN?

Quote from: Orca on November 16, 2013, 08:16:03 pm
Leave PNC out then. The ZAR depreciation worries me a bit.



Ok,maby Ill drop it to 10 or 5%.If the rand weakewns steadily will PNC actually lose money steadily,since they import?I don't see the rand recovering anytime soon.I think it's just going to weaken.Thats the past performance of it if I am not mistaken.

55
Shares / Re: Critique my Portfolio.
« on: November 16, 2013, 05:51:10 am »
Yeah,that's a cool blog and an interesting formula.

Question,is the PE ratios for FGL and OML too high for their industries to buy in your opinion?If I need to diversify maby it could be with these guys,but I am not aware if I am too late.What about MR. PRice ad a share?Cannot find a topic for FGL so I ask here.

Quote from: Orca on November 14, 2013, 06:10:26 pm
I don't like giving advice but you are still young so it is a start for you to learn your own stock picking methods. No doubt I will get flack by some members. After all, I'm not near winning the competition.

I don't mind,you are one of the few people actually giving me solid advice,and your past  predictions and research on stocks have been successful.I wish those other folks would chime in too with their  winners.I take all advice and go with the common denominator plus my own google research plus 10% hunch.

56
Shares / Re: Critique my Portfolio.
« on: November 15, 2013, 02:25:25 pm »
Quote from: Orca on November 15, 2013, 01:20:13 pm
Your total investments times 4% divide by 12. If you can live on this monthly amount, you will be ok and can live out any market corrections. Some say as high as 5 or 6% will do.

I don't understand this formula.Total value of investment times 4%?
What is  the name of it so I can google it?
Quote from: jaDEB on November 15, 2013, 01:45:58 pm
Not that I am saying you should not, as I have the 1 share portfolio. Do u not think it is risky with such a high % of OMN. Like I said, that is what I am doing, just asking a question that you financial advisor will ask you.



Past success is not an indicator of future success,is probably something a Financial advisor would say.

But if I can even hold onto  OMN for a year it would still be worth it,what I know is that I probably won't directly lose any money on it.Seems like a safe bet for the returns you will recieve,that's just the way I see it.

I will skip diversification if there is a clear winner among the pack,in terms of performance.

57
Shares / Re: Critique my Portfolio.
« on: November 15, 2013, 11:52:50 am »
Yes,I am far from retirement and I would like my money to work for me.I like that ratio Orca.It seems conservative,but it still maximise's profit.

So I think it might be better to leave out the INDI as you initially suggested,since its probably better for longer term or retirement

.I can always sell these at some point and Buy INDI when the INDI corrects. I want to keep at least the OMN for longer than 3 years.


OMN   70%
PNC    15%
MTA    15%

Would it behoove me to Create another account for OMN,so that can be considered Investing?

Then keep PNC and MTA in a seperate account.I will use this account for investing,but if anything goes wrong with the a share I can still sell them at different times ,then it can be considered a trading account.Do I make sense?


Also,can shares later be transferred from one account to another,from my trading to investment account perhaps?

Nios,I am going to throw all disposable income into it except maby a few bucks ,which is not allot.Just under R300 000.

So here is where I am hazy,I am not too sure if its a good or bad thing to add to those shares,especially if I have to sell within 3 years,which I am not expecting to do for the OMN.

BUt as I understand it,each share has a date,and if I use the weighted average method I can just average the value of my profit.

So ,to answer the question I would like to add to OMN maby every few months or at dips since it appears to be stable.Or,I will invest in other stocks once I become educated and I can read the market.

"I went on early retirement last week and have no Indi in my portfolio as of yet. This is only due to the fact that I have not reached my 4% thing yet. So while I'm in good mental health, I will go for that 4%. Once that is reached or I start acting funny, I will sell all and buy into the Indi and perhaps some OML for alpha. Like in 70%/30%."

Orca,what is this 4% thingy you refer to?

I would probably go higher for PNC and shave some off OMN but I dont know much about these stocks yet.

58
Shares / Re: Critique my Portfolio.
« on: November 14, 2013, 05:36:10 pm »
Wowee,a curveball,I didnt expect that ,halve the indi.

I am 31 now.How would you adjust my portfolio if you were in my shoes,whilst trying to only pay CGT tax?

I want to be conservative with the bulk of my money and don't mind selling every 3 years if need be.

Thanks allot,I appreciate everyone's responses.

59
Shares / Re: Critique my Portfolio.
« on: November 14, 2013, 04:21:19 pm »
Quote from: Orca on November 14, 2013, 03:57:05 pm
Looking at that comparison chart above, PNC performed the best overall. Had the ZAR not weakened, she would be over 400%. She will procede as soon as R10 to the $ becomes the new normal and her new acquisition adds to her profits.
STXIND is a stable 30 percenter and with OMN added to it for that extra boost is all I need in my retirement portfolio.
MTA made a massive acquisition that will add plenty of alpha from December. This will be a 140% + pa stock for some years to come. Once the loan for the new plant is paid off though. Stock of the year for 2015.

I hear you loud and clear,safe,consistent,comfortable,certain gains with OMN and INDI.But with that being said,if you were in my shoes,and not in retirement,would you dabble in PNC and  MTA?

From what you said Im talking maby 10% of my portfolio for MTA-5% and PNC-5%,if its worth the trouble?

Im thinking higher for MTA though,but maby I am being greedy.


60
Shares / Re: Tax
« on: November 14, 2013, 04:14:11 pm »
Quote from: Orca on November 10, 2013, 06:44:04 pm
Part 2 as I am still bored.

The occasional sale of a share within the 3 year period does not always make you a Trader in shares. SARS states that "One swallow does not a summer make".

Does this refer to volume or frequency of stock sales within a 3 year period?

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