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Messages - Aragorn

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46
Shares / Re: Does anyone here gear their investments?
« on: January 24, 2014, 09:06:03 am »
I've just done another quick (and not precise) excercise (I may do it properly later if I feel like it) related to gearing.

On 2/1/2013 I bought 10000 STXIND cfd's @ 40.90 (On OST 10000 cdf's = 10000 shares). This gave me an exposure of R 409 000.00. To cover this exposure I had to place a margin of R 37 000.00. To fund this margin, I had to borrow the funds from my bond. I pay exposure interest @ 7.5%, receive margin interest @ 4.73%, and pay 6% on my bond.

On 31/12/2013 the following position existed:-
Margin Variation: R 135 900.00
Exposure Interest: -R 35 980.89
Margin Interest: R 1745.31
Interest on Bond: -R 2213.92
Profit: R 99 450.5

I sell the cfd's, and get my margin back, and repay into my bond.

What has not been accounted for here is -
 - Compounding factor on the interest on the Bond
 - Interest received on the Margin variation and the compounding effect of that
 - Dividends recieved.
 - The effect of tax on the profit.
 - Fees and commissions
However - all these considered, I should still walk away with around R60 000.00

On 2/1/2014, using the profits I bought 16000 STXIND cfd's............

I wonder where I'll be on 31/12/2014?

Note - this did not happen - it's only an exercise.......(pity).

47
Shares / Re: share shorting explanation
« on: January 24, 2014, 08:11:32 am »
There are a number of indicators that can be used as an "indication" that a share could be ripe for a short. However they cannot be used in isolation. Most traders have their own "system", i.e. a "list" of indicators or patterns that must all fall into place before considering a short. These could include RSI and/or MACD reflecting an overbought situation, share price movement, volume traded, industry sector sentiment (e.g the last few months had been great to short most Retail stocks), Double top and Head and Shoulder patterns, Doji candles etc, etc. - the list goes on. and just to complicate matters, not all shares follow the identical "criteria", hence a trader should have different systems for each shall we say "group" of shares (e.g. NASPERS behaves very differently to Anglo under identical indicators). And even once all indicators are in line, it still does not mean that the share price will drop. That's when the trader's pre determined risk management and strategy come into play. Is the trade worth the risk?

In my experience, shorts generally run for a shorter period compared to longs - but it's not a rule - the story of "Bulls take the stairs while Bears jump out the window" comes to mind.

48
Shares / Re: Metair. Titan or Titanic?
« on: January 23, 2014, 10:28:38 am »
Quote from: Delusionsofgrandeur on January 23, 2014, 10:07:01 am
Quote from: Aragorn on January 23, 2014, 08:21:58 am
My charting software has indicated a Short on MTA @ 45.35. Target c42.50. OST however does not permit shorts on MTA. Damn.

Thanks Aragon.What software do you use?
I'm using FCharts SE by spacejock software (freeware)

49
Shares / Re: Metair. Titan or Titanic?
« on: January 23, 2014, 08:21:58 am »
My charting software has indicated a Short on MTA @ 45.35. Target c42.50. OST however does not permit shorts on MTA. Damn.

50
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: January 22, 2014, 10:53:50 am »
With platinum sector strikes due to start tomorrow, I note that the share pricess have increased by over 2% today on AMS and IMP. Is this logical?

51
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: January 22, 2014, 08:25:36 am »
By close of day on Tuesday, losses in gold mining shares had led the JSE All Share down 0.10%. The rand was trading at R10.82 to the US dollar, R17.80 to the British pound and R14.65 to the euro as concern for the SA economic outlook continues. Gold had fallen 1.28% to sell at $1238.80, platinum had slipped 1.96% to $1437.70 an ounce, and silver was selling 2.38% lower at $19.81 an ounce.

Dow - 0.3%, FTSE flat, Dax +0.1%,HSend +0,2%, Nikkei +0.2%, AllOrds -0.3%
New Highs - Telcom, Sasol, Capco, SAB, Steinhof
VIX 12.87, F&G 53 (Neutral)

TBS to purchase Kenyan Milling concern for USD 25 Mil. Platinum bosses say they cannot afford Union wage demands. SA CPI for December due today (Nov = 5.3%).

And just for interest - A 29.6 carat blue diamond, one of the rarest and most coveted in the world with a possible price tag of tens of millions of dollars, has been discovered at a South African mine by Petra Diamonds.

52
Shares / Re: My retirement blog.
« on: January 21, 2014, 08:36:02 am »
Quote from: jaDEB on January 20, 2014, 08:34:03 am
I suggest you stay away from Boksburg. Once you here you would want to immigrate here and not Europe.
Just a thought - Orca needs to get his passport, so he will not be able to visit Boksburg until he has a passport.  ^-^

53
Off topic / Live chat
« on: January 20, 2014, 12:43:41 pm »
@Patrick - seems sorted now. Took forever to load any pages. Forum was fine though.

54
Off topic / Live chat
« on: January 20, 2014, 08:33:19 am »
Investor Challenge hanging this morning - is it just me or is something else awry?

55
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: January 20, 2014, 08:20:28 am »
Despite gains in gold mining and resource shares, losses in financial and industrial shares led the JSE All Share down 0.11% by close of day on Friday. The rand was trading at R10.86 to the US dollar and R17.82 to the British pound. Gold had risen 0.52% to sell at $1248.51 an ounce, while Brent crude oil had fallen 0.72% to $106.36 a barrel.  The rand recovered some of its footing against the dollar on Friday after plumbing five year lows earlier in the week, but a dim economic outlook points to further losses in the short term.

Strikes in the platinum sector are on the cards. This will have negative affect on the rand as well as the economy. Should the rand continue it's steady but inevitable decline, the country will start to feel the affects of additional inflation beyond the SARB's target of 3-6%, due to rising feul and food prices. To counter-act this, an earlier than expected interest rate increase will be most likely. Rating Agencies are already looking at downgrading SA.

Not a pretty picture, and I guess this will have a negative affect on our markets, slower growth rates and not much chance of making moola.

Dow +0.3%, FTSE +0.2%, Dax +0.3%, HSeng -1.0%, Nikkei -0.5%, AllOrds -0.2%
USD 10.92, EUR 14.77, GBP 17.93
F&G 58 (Greed),  VIX 12.44

56
The Investor Challenge / Re: New feature requests go here
« on: January 18, 2014, 09:33:53 am »
Hey Patrick
This morning, the "Show unread post since last visit" link returns no posts unread, although if you click on any forum there are unread posts (well for me anyway). Is this a Saturday thing or has a bug crept in somewhere?

57
Off topic / Live chat
« on: January 18, 2014, 09:26:26 am »
Working on a Sat really SUCKS.........But we gotta do what we gotta do.

58
Shares / Re: DBX
« on: January 17, 2014, 08:39:18 am »
I used to hold DBXJP for many years - one of the first "share" investments I made way back when. Sold them in 2012 as growth had really stagnated and bought MTN instead. No regrets either way.

59
Off topic / Live chat
« on: January 17, 2014, 08:25:53 am »
A great effort Patrick. Can you increse the number from 4 to say 8? Clicking Chat History opens the the forum topic within this tiny space and is not really navigable.

60
Shares / Re: Today's Outlook
« on: January 17, 2014, 08:22:56 am »
On Thursday at market close, strong gains in resource and gold mining shares helped to offset losses in financials and industrial shares, seeing the JSE All Share end up by 0.62%. Further weakness in the rand took the exchange rates to R10.89 to the US dollar and R17.78 to the British pound. Brent crude oil rose 0.52% to $106.94 a barrel after US crude oil inventories fell, indicating increased energy demand.

European markets were lower by 5pm SA time as investors considered the release of worse-than-expected corporate earnings. The DAX had lost 0.10%, the CAC40 had slipped 0.25% and the FTSE 100 had inched down 0.04%. US markets were lower after corporate earnings results fell short of analysts’ forecasts. The Dow Jones was 0.20% down, the S&P 500 had fallen 0.14% and the Nasdaq had slipped 0.03%.

African Eagle Resources (AEA) was the top gainer on Thursday as shares rose 20% to R0.06 after 5 deals traded 214,150 shares. In second place was Kaydav Group (KDV), which climbed to R1.35 after 58,920 shares were exchanged in 5 deals, a boost of 14.41% in share price. After investors sold 131,510 shares in 5 deals, Labat Africa (LAB) slid 21.43% to R0.11 a share to become top loser today. Mine Restoration Investments (MRI) lost 21.43% after 3 deals traded 118,001 shares to become joint leader, resulting in a share price of R0.11.

Bidvest Group will close its offer for a stake in drugmaker Adcock Ingram. The cash offer of 70 rand a share for 34.5 percent of Adcock will close at 1500 GMT on February 4.

New Highs for Billiton, Glencore, Sasol, Investec, Mondi, Capco and Naspers

F&G = 72 (Greed)
Dow -0.4%, FTSE -0.1%, DAX -0.2%, HSeng +0.8%, Nikkei +0.1%, AllOrds -0.3%
USD 10.93, EUR 14.89, GBP 17.86
Gold 1243.40, Plat 1439.50 Brent 106.44, Silver 20.14

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