16
Shares / GOLDFIELDS - GFI
« on: September 01, 2014, 11:23:58 am »
Having a nice run since I bought 19 August.
Please help with anticipated exit points.
Thanks
Please help with anticipated exit points.
Thanks
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17
Shares / Re: Red Hot Penny Shares.
« on: September 01, 2014, 11:15:49 am »
I also had the same experience. Every red hot tip ended in a loss.
I therefore distanced myself from them years ago.
I therefore distanced myself from them years ago.
18
Shares / Re: Capitec
« on: August 26, 2014, 11:26:51 am »
The sentiment is most definitely against Capitec. Even if there is currently value in
the share you can only realise it if there are buyers when you want to sell.
Personally I stay away - I try to be an investor and not a speculator.
Horses for courses.
the share you can only realise it if there are buyers when you want to sell.
Personally I stay away - I try to be an investor and not a speculator.
Horses for courses.
20
Shares / Re: African Bank
« on: August 17, 2014, 12:11:18 pm »
Interesting – but unfortunately I am not so optimistic about this as you. It is impossible to say the new shareholders will benefit.
May benefit? perhaps. Could lose more? probably.
No investor bought ABIL shares on Friday – only speculayers did.
Some you win, some you lose – also in this case.
Value cannot be created out of nothing, which means that after the split the value of good + bad + old will be the same as what the total value of ABIL is now. The value of the right to buy shares in new good bank must therefor be calculated as the value of the new good bank plus the negative value of the new bad bank, plus the negative value of the bankrupt old bank.
Holders of shares in ABIL can:
1 sell their rights to buy shares in new good bank – and the value of those rights will still be determined, but will most definitely take into account the negative values of the others - there is no free lunch; or
2 will have to invest more money so as to buy the shares in new good bank.
It is true that the “value” of the rights might be more that the final 30c per share, but it could also be less.
The only chance that shareholders have of not loosing more than they already have, is if the market over reacted on Friday and the value is in fact more than the 30c closing price. Speculators who bought in at these values obviously are in the same position.
My definition of good news is slightly different.
Let’s see what happens to the ABSA shareprice on Monday when their clients en masse withdraw their funds from the money market account where they had to take a write off due to this debacle.
May benefit? perhaps. Could lose more? probably.
No investor bought ABIL shares on Friday – only speculayers did.
Some you win, some you lose – also in this case.
Value cannot be created out of nothing, which means that after the split the value of good + bad + old will be the same as what the total value of ABIL is now. The value of the right to buy shares in new good bank must therefor be calculated as the value of the new good bank plus the negative value of the new bad bank, plus the negative value of the bankrupt old bank.
Holders of shares in ABIL can:
1 sell their rights to buy shares in new good bank – and the value of those rights will still be determined, but will most definitely take into account the negative values of the others - there is no free lunch; or
2 will have to invest more money so as to buy the shares in new good bank.
It is true that the “value” of the rights might be more that the final 30c per share, but it could also be less.
The only chance that shareholders have of not loosing more than they already have, is if the market over reacted on Friday and the value is in fact more than the 30c closing price. Speculators who bought in at these values obviously are in the same position.
My definition of good news is slightly different.
Let’s see what happens to the ABSA shareprice on Monday when their clients en masse withdraw their funds from the money market account where they had to take a write off due to this debacle.
21
Shares / Re: Suspension VS delisted
« on: August 13, 2014, 04:02:45 pm »
As I understand:
Suspension
A stoppage in the trading of a share for a period of time. The most common reason for suspension is due to a lack of publicly available, relevant and current financial information on the company. Once the shares are suspended, it cannot be traded on the market until the suspension is lifted or lapses. Suspended trading means that an exchange has temporarily stopped trading in a particular stock or other security. Trading is typically halted either because an important piece of information about the issuing company is about to be released or because there's a serious imbalance between buy and sell orders, often triggered by speculation. The suspension, or trading halt, provides time for the marketplace to absorb the announcement, good or bad, and helps reduce volatility in the stock price.
Examples of news that could cause a suspension are a poorer than expected earnings report, a major innovation or discovery, a merger, or significant legal problems. The Exchange can also suspend trading in the stock of a company it suspects of misleading or illegal activity.
Delisting
The success of a stock exchange depends largely on investors' confidence in the stocks it trades on. So, to maintain investors' confidence, the major exchanges allow only public companies that meet specific requirements to list on the exchange. If a company messes up, the exchange will kick the company out of its exclusive club. Delisting doesn't necessarily mean that a company is going to go bankrupt. Just as there are plenty of private companies that survive without the stock market, it is possible for a company to be delisted and still be profitable. However, delisting can make it more difficult for a company to raise money, and in this respect, it sometimes is a first step towards bankruptcy. For example, delisting may trigger a company's creditors to call in loans, or its credit rating might be further downgraded, increasing its interest expenses and potentially even pushing it into the red. As a shareholder, you should seriously revisit your investment decision in a company that has become delisted; in many cases, it may be better to cut your losses. A firm unable to meet the listing requirements of the exchange upon which it is traded is quite obviously not in a great position. Therefore, if a company that you own is delisted, it may not spell inevitable doom, but it is certainly a black mark on that company's reputation and, if the company can't recover, a sign of diminishing returns down the road.
Suspension
A stoppage in the trading of a share for a period of time. The most common reason for suspension is due to a lack of publicly available, relevant and current financial information on the company. Once the shares are suspended, it cannot be traded on the market until the suspension is lifted or lapses. Suspended trading means that an exchange has temporarily stopped trading in a particular stock or other security. Trading is typically halted either because an important piece of information about the issuing company is about to be released or because there's a serious imbalance between buy and sell orders, often triggered by speculation. The suspension, or trading halt, provides time for the marketplace to absorb the announcement, good or bad, and helps reduce volatility in the stock price.
Examples of news that could cause a suspension are a poorer than expected earnings report, a major innovation or discovery, a merger, or significant legal problems. The Exchange can also suspend trading in the stock of a company it suspects of misleading or illegal activity.
Delisting
The success of a stock exchange depends largely on investors' confidence in the stocks it trades on. So, to maintain investors' confidence, the major exchanges allow only public companies that meet specific requirements to list on the exchange. If a company messes up, the exchange will kick the company out of its exclusive club. Delisting doesn't necessarily mean that a company is going to go bankrupt. Just as there are plenty of private companies that survive without the stock market, it is possible for a company to be delisted and still be profitable. However, delisting can make it more difficult for a company to raise money, and in this respect, it sometimes is a first step towards bankruptcy. For example, delisting may trigger a company's creditors to call in loans, or its credit rating might be further downgraded, increasing its interest expenses and potentially even pushing it into the red. As a shareholder, you should seriously revisit your investment decision in a company that has become delisted; in many cases, it may be better to cut your losses. A firm unable to meet the listing requirements of the exchange upon which it is traded is quite obviously not in a great position. Therefore, if a company that you own is delisted, it may not spell inevitable doom, but it is certainly a black mark on that company's reputation and, if the company can't recover, a sign of diminishing returns down the road.
22
Shares / Re: African Bank
« on: August 13, 2014, 12:25:13 pm »
As I understand it - and I don't know if I am right - Abil as we know it is gone forever. It will be replaced by a new "good bank" taking over the Abil business worth anything, and a "bad bank" taking over the mess. The only value that Abil shares have is that it will afford shareholders a right to buy shares in the new "good bank" entity, when the new entity issue its shares (uitgifte van nuwe entiteit). The value for shareholders thus will be a function of the worth of the "good" business in the new "good bank". The share issue of the new "good bank" has been underwritten by the R10 billion from the other banks. This in my opinion means that if you do not invest further monies (by exercising the rights and buy shares in "good bank"), the chance of recovering any value from your current shareholding will be virtually nil.
23
Shares / Re: African Bank
« on: August 11, 2014, 08:59:00 am »
It is actually very easy to understand.
If you hold ABIL shares, the total value of your holdings are now Rnil.
Eish.
If you hold ABIL shares, the total value of your holdings are now Rnil.
Eish.
25
Go and study the guide for share owners issued by SARS (latest update 17 Feb 2014).
You can find it at:
http://www.sars.gov.za/AllDocs/OpsDocs/Guides/LAPD-IT-G11%20-%20Tax%20Guide%20for%20Share%20Owners%20-%20External%20Guide.pdf
You can find it at:
http://www.sars.gov.za/AllDocs/OpsDocs/Guides/LAPD-IT-G11%20-%20Tax%20Guide%20for%20Share%20Owners%20-%20External%20Guide.pdf
26
If you already own the share I think you have to ride this wave. Banking a 25% loss makes no sense seeing that the expectation is that the market over reacted and that the price will recover. If and when it will recover the total fall of yesterday nobody knows. Might even consider adding to holdings at lower price to reduce average cost of investment. I don't own any and plan to stay away. Surely any purchase now must be speculation and not investing??
27
Shares / Re: Remgro
« on: December 04, 2013, 01:02:54 pm »
My question is: Which share price will benefit the most, Remgro or Caxton?
That is the one I need to own.
That is the one I need to own.
28
Shares / Re: Fund managers - would you use them?
« on: November 29, 2013, 07:06:48 am »
I agree with Orca.
Using fund managers you always start below 100 with the factor of their fees. If they charge 2.5%, you start at 97.2% of their benchmark. It is easy to find out their top shareholding be it whatever type of fund. Look at the best performers and choose your direct investments from the shares that the best performing fund managers hold in their portfolios. At least you save their fees.
Some fund managers go so far as to also charge a fee for every transaction they make in your portfolio! Just think about the conflict of interest they have to manage - and who do you think normally comes out as the winner?
Very few fund managers consistently manage to even only equal the index, so at best they generate returns for you below what you can do yourself.
Using fund managers you always start below 100 with the factor of their fees. If they charge 2.5%, you start at 97.2% of their benchmark. It is easy to find out their top shareholding be it whatever type of fund. Look at the best performers and choose your direct investments from the shares that the best performing fund managers hold in their portfolios. At least you save their fees.
Some fund managers go so far as to also charge a fee for every transaction they make in your portfolio! Just think about the conflict of interest they have to manage - and who do you think normally comes out as the winner?
Very few fund managers consistently manage to even only equal the index, so at best they generate returns for you below what you can do yourself.
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