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Messages - Bevan

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1
Off topic / Re: Question re FIRE future returns
« on: September 10, 2020, 04:58:13 pm »
Hello guys, everything in this world revolves around money and it is kind of sad that we live in this kind of world. Money is something we invented and now it is controlling us. I have tried to live a life where money does not play that big of a part, but it is not possible. The newest thing is introduction of cryptocurrency and I see how people are going mad about it. I wanted to try it out, but after reading some articles on investotrend.com I came to the solution that it is not worth it. The market is on a down now and it does not make sense.

Cryptocurrency will have a role to play in any future financial system, but the "killer app" has not yet been launched. Creating money because a computer solves an algorithm or a wealthy investor "stakes" his existing wealth, has no utility value and besides, transaction fees and times are insane and getting worse. Cryptocurrency is similar to where we were in the late 90's with the initial dot-com boom, with things like pets.com and askjeeves.com . But of course Amazon was also emerging around that time too.....

2
Off topic / Re: Agricultural Investments
« on: September 10, 2020, 04:54:19 pm »
Hi Kobus, congrats on starting a business and best of luck to you guys going forward. One way to get really rich is to build wealth as an entrepreneur and create something useful, rather than just shuffling shares around.   :)

Agriculture is a vital industry but also hugely tough. Maize and cattle farmers for instance are battling commodity markets, droughts and ever rising costs of seed, fertilizer, diesel etc. Then there's theft, safety etc. and of the course the usual years of feast and famine.

The problem as I see it is that farmers are battling Nature, instead of working with her. Farmers are farming debt as they seek to take on ever larger acreage and try for increased yields with the GMO seed salesman. Regenerative farmers are re-learning what we used to know hundreds of years ago i.e. don't throw chemical fertilizers on your land which only leach your soils; practise diversity and multi-crop horizons so you don't end up sterilising your soil; use things like inoculated biochar to improve soil water retention and build up your soil food web. Even if you're a plain old mealie farmer, understand which companion plants will help increase yields, and naturally fight pests, so that you don't have to waste money on expensive and unnecessary fertilisers and pesticides.

There are several hi-tech sensing devices from drones to tractor-based, and I'm sure they all have their uses. However, the farmer who really understands Nature should not be farming with such Homo Sapiens like precision. Instead, they should observe and be guided by Nature as she will always know far more than any Sapiens programmable device that says "whack more Nitrogen here", completely ignoring all the other inter-related factors. On the other hand, if you can start to build the language of Nature and the Elements, the seasons, and plant, tree and fungi inter-networks into your device then I reckon you're onto a winner!

We must protect the soil that protects us. Soil is going to become our No.1 commodity going forward i.e. increased flooding and removal of top-soil is one of the biggest survival threats that we as a species face. Unless we all want to eat hydroponically-grown lettuce for the rest of our lives... ugghh!


3
Shares / Re: Gold stocks
« on: September 09, 2020, 03:46:00 pm »
Harmony is the fund's favourite and it certainly attracts the most eyeballs. Then Ashanti, Gold Fields etc. followed lastly by DRD Gold. Unfortunately DRD is quite illiquid relative to the others, but it's attractive when the price runs. Assuming they don't piss away their tiny margin from tailings on overhead costs....

4
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: September 09, 2020, 03:41:33 pm »
Hi Bevan, with the amount of money printing, I have been long gold for a while now. I think it's still a good place to be, although it's come off in the past week.

Interestingly gold has not sold off like equities have these last few days. This is an emerging sign of the strength building up in the gold market. Also, it's interesting that the "unobtainium" premium in physical gold and silver is getting larger and larger i.e. the premium you have to pay to hold your own physical gold vs. something like an ETN (which tracks gold price performance) or an ETF (which is backed by someone else's gold in a vault somewhere).

When the sh1t finally hits the fan, the unobtainum premium will go through the roof whilst the gold price itself over time will do just a little bit better than inflation. Crypto fanatics also talk about BTC etc. having their own unobtainium premiums but that has to be factored against the fact that crypto won't necessarily be desirable in an economic emergency. There just hasn't been enough widespread adoption of it, whilst gold and silver can easily be used as cash-equivalents when the need arises - after all they have played this role superbly in the past before.

5
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: September 06, 2020, 09:34:53 am »
We've had the expected correction in equities now and the next week or so are now crucial.... Do we revert to the wild, QE-fuelled bull run we've seen so far this year, or is there something more nefarious lurking out there. A weekly chart of the Vanguard All World ETF is very similar to most other equity markets, suggesting it is looking to break down, leading to more choppy sideways action - for now.

After this inevitable subsiding of momentum, will we then see the classic bull-flag upwards breakout again, or do we see a more sustained structural break downwards? Too early to tell right now. But either way, keeping our powder dry is the best strategy for now.

2020 has been a fascinating year so far to learn about how financial markets are adjusting to the new monetary order. Warren Buffett has made the bold move of investing into yen-denominated Japanese trading houses such as the legendary Mitsui and other "keiretsu". Guess he's not interested in being 100% in USD anymore... The cracks are starting to show now....  >:D



6
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: August 27, 2020, 12:27:02 am »
It's been a pretty amazing stock rally these last two weeks but we are now quite extended and overbought. The monthly chart for SP500 is the highest ever overbought MACD ever, about twice as extended as that in 2007 / 2008. But of course this is simply a sign of the volatility and massive energy that has flowed into markets in the last couple of years.

Every man, woman, binary and their dogs and cats are long the stock market. The amount of QE and easy money that has flowed into markets is truly stupendous. There will of course be the inevitable correction and these will likely be quite volatile too.

A correction could be imminent in the next few days. I note that the VIX index has been climbing the last couple of days for no apparent reason i.e. it should be going down as stock markets keep going up. Gold is also turning back up after its recent sell-off. So I suspect the clever money may be gearing up for something. (I have an emerging theory that the massive index funds could be pushing markets down before the monthly buy-in around the 1st - but of course this will end in tears if true, as the front-runners will cause havoc and even more volatility).

Either way, I'm now out of all stocks, gold, crypto etc. and keeping my powder dry for now.

7
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: August 20, 2020, 10:49:33 pm »
Does anyone has a list of JSE stocks which can be SHORT?  Any which brokers provide the service?

You can short pretty much any share, but this is something you would typically do via a broker. Also it's much easier to short via a CFD platform such as IG INDEX for instance.

8
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: August 14, 2020, 04:57:04 pm »
Nothing really to report here, other than stocks (as represented by the Dow, I should probably use the SP500 instead) are peaking on this latest rally. However, whilst active traders might look to take profits and look for a re-entry point later on, one NEVER ever shorts stocks when both short-term momentum and trend (signal) are in positive territory, as they are on all of a daily, weekly and monthly chart.

Of course, downside surprises can come at any time but for now it's probably safe to let your capital stay long in stocks, if it's lazy capital. If it needs to work instead, then take profits on stocks and go into something with a bit more volatility like BTC or ETH, which could work for those who can handle a faster heart rate. Both are due for another pop higher, probably over the weekend. Of course, LINK is the new golden child on the crypto front and it "should" continue to outperform in the short term, as greed keeps looking for those 10-bagger returns.

Gold saw its arse handed to it after the dumb money poured into the trade above $2,000 and it hit global news headlines. Now I expect sideways range bound trading as the wind is blowing against the current, creating choppy price action. Definitely one to sit out for now. We will probably only see another big run towards Oct / Nov time when stocks look most likely to wobble again.

9
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: August 07, 2020, 04:58:14 pm »
We've had a nice little rally on the Dow as expected, even though it was a bit of a shaky start last Thursday / Friday. However, this gave really nice levels to get in at and we've enjoyed at least a 1,000 point rally in a week. However, the rally was a lot less energetic than I was expecting, meaning we might be nearing the end of stimulus induced rallies. C'mon the FED.... We need more cash and more newbies to pump markets higher.

Anyway, most stock markets should continue drifting higher for now. I expect that the rest of August should see further gains, but with daily momentum almost peaking now, I can't see markets shooting the lights out. I predict that the reality of Main Street economic woes will start setting in and many will start taking profits. I think it's too early for that as regards this latest move but definitely time to bring up those trailing stops....

Remember that most traders lose money because they cut their profits too early and let their losses run, when of course properly disciplined traders do the exact opposite. If trading was a 50:50 coin toss each time, then mathematically one should make money if you let your profits run at least twice the distance of where you cut your losses. Easier said than done of course.... Which is why robots make the best traders.

I'm amazed at how gold has continued to run. I was expecting the $2,000 level and of course when that was breached we saw a whole bunch of new cash coming in as it made news headlines. Silver has done even better, with a smaller trading and investing community and far more demand for the physical, as wealth storage in coins, bars etc. Personally I think silver is awesome and it should find increasing use in medical and other industrial applications as well. Even the ancient druids knew of colloidal silver's medicinal uses, and they used silver reflected light when operating Stonehenge as an advance invasion warning system.

Anyway, I'm babbling. No new trades to put on right now and we're looking for an opportune time to exit our longs in the Dow. We might use the pullback after that to go long again before momentum turns down on the monthly chart, at which time we will be looking for that exciting short opportunity. Meanwhile, shorting vol is still a decent trade, especially considering the overnight free interest carry earned by most CFD providers.

10
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: July 30, 2020, 11:02:38 am »
Stock futures a little wobbly this morning... may have spoken a little too early yesterday in recommending to start buying. However, this is always the risk when predicting moves based on momentum.

- Try get in too early by predicting the move and you can sometimes get flipped as momentum fails to break in the expected direction
- Wait for the confirmation of the momentum move and you can often miss the big move

C'est la vie. This is where experience, patience and discipline come in. No one should ever blindly throw themselves into any trade. Rather, build your macro trade view up based on the conjunction of monthly, weekly, daily charts etc. and what momentum, market stretch, sentiment etc. are doing. Then, work on your timing of your trade entry to get the best possible price.

Remember that you should always patiently time your entry into a trade. But never be slow in getting out of a trade! Get out immediately if it has hit your stop loss and /or trailing take profit levels. Then never look back.

So this morning is giving much better entry levels to go long stocks. Thus, it's probably best to sit and watch market sentiment on the futures, news etc. to decide when to get in. Always wait for the afternoon session when the Dow is open to trade, and especially wait for after major market news events e.g. non-farm payrolls, crude oil releases, interest rate changes etc.

Although I'm less confident than I was yesterday that stocks are going to break up strongly now into August, I still think we will see a rally. It all depends on price action over the next two days....

11
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: July 29, 2020, 09:45:08 pm »
Another one that looks to be breaking upwards on a monthly chart is crude oil... However, note that the signal line is still deep in negative territory on the momentum graph. Thus, this is a cross-current upside break, although the red signal line does look like it wants to start turning up again as well... So whilst not as positive as stocks, this is another one to potentially go long with.

Sasol should of course benefit from both "risk on" and an upside breakout with crude. However, I don't think it's a long term share to hold. Much better to trade via CFD exposure, even with the interest overhead. However, note with crude that we are around the 50% retracement level on the monthly chart. I don't see crude making an upside run for too long... I think we'll be lucky to see $48 on WTI and then the market will retrace once more. The physical supply demand dynamics just don't support a strong crude price right now.

12
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: July 29, 2020, 08:48:15 pm »
So, it looks as though stocks are going to keep pushing higher for now. We are about to end July and the monthly chart shows momentum breaking upwards into positive terrain. It may not be a dramatic move higher but I feel it's a fairly safe one now. See monthly chart... This is about to be confirmed by the daily chart also breaking upwards in terms of momentum. So we "should" see some strong moves upward shortly... Of course nothing is ever guaranteed and that's where trading discipline, stop losses, allocation of capital etc. all come in.

On the daily chart we can see the typical sideways movement in stocks, that always happens when you get short term momentum moving "cross-current" to medium term signal / trend line.  As I posted a week ago (23rd June), we have seen a short term correction / sideways movement now when daily momentum broke down over the signal line last week. This allowed us to reallocate capital to other more useful trades such as gold. Now, it appears that stocks want to break up again... Out of interest, this cross-current momentum shifting to an upside breakout is what technical chartists will refer to as a "bull flag". But the bull flag pattern never really tells you when the breakout is coming - you need momentum for that.

- Look to start taking profits on gold, although the theory of big numbers means that traders will be pushing for the $2,000 level - maybe hang on until then...
- Start entering long positions on Dow and/or other stock indices
- Short vol (VIX) index, earning a nice interest carry as well, although tight stops please.... By being long stocks and short vol you're actually highly leveraged to stocks going up - not delta hedged at all...
- ZAR should also strengthen as "risk on" mode kicks in again
- Bitcoin has shot its load now and is over-extended to the upside. As stocks rally I expect Bitcoin to lose its allure, although the $10,000 level should hold as floor support now...

P.S. Now that I've posted this publicly, I've probably completely jinxed everything... Oh well, let's see....

13
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: July 23, 2020, 04:06:29 pm »
Out of interest, something similar to today's monthly Dow pattern happened in 2008 before the financial crash really got going. In fact, the signal line (red line in bottom graph hasn't been negative since the 2008 crash. But in March 2008 the rally was not nearly so strong as it is today. Then again, those were the days just before QE became a thing.

I for one am generally happy to follow the crowds in this current market euphoria. However, I know in my bones that no nation can ever outrun its debt problems, from the fall of Rome to France and more modern countries. The US is wholly dependent on the USD being the currency that can buy the entire world's production, hence they don't have an inflation problem, even while running the monster of all deficits ever known. However, China is doing everything in its power to ensure that the USD is toppled. Then there is US social security which goes bust in a little under 10 years.

When, not if, the USD collapses and/or defaults on its bondholders, that will usher in the biggest financial crisis the world has ever seen. It's not going to happen tomorrow, or even in the next fear or two. There are still a few options allowing policymakers to kick the can down the road, although they are almost out of options now. In 5 years time the world is going to be a vastly different place.

14
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: July 23, 2020, 02:17:31 pm »
Unlike many other markets, the stock market hardly ever gives you a chance to short it. Aside from the famed Plunge Prevention Team, we also now have Robin Hood traders, day traders, swing traders, bots, funds and of course the monthly splurge from the FIRE crowd, pension funds etc. This is all unprecedented stuff - nowhere in the history of markets has so much firepower been thrown at the market to make it go up. But of course when everyone is long, the speed and depth of the panic when crashes come will only get wilder and wilder.

The market rallied itself out of a fall the other day, and we are now pretty extended to the upside. We only have a week or so to go before printing a nicely positive upside breakout for the stock market on a monthly chart. It's pretty wild to think that by the end of August the market could be back at the level it started the year at, as if Covid never even happened. And yet, the US has thrown trillions of firepower into the market. Of course, with the red signal line now having reached zero, we could see a positive July, Aug and Sep, with a subsequent turn down in momentum come end of year.

Meanwhile, my favourite trade remains gold, although that is quite extended to the upside now as well. It's fascinating how gold and stocks have rallied at the same time - that hardly ever happens as they normally have quite strong inverse correlation.

Although we are due for a short term stocks correction, in the medium term it looks like we should see a good run towards Jan-20 levels on the Dow, at which point the market might get the wobbles again, depending on how Main Street is faring relative to Wall Street.

15
Shares / Re: Trader's Journal
« on: July 20, 2020, 10:40:18 am »
Yes thank you have confirmed what I have always suspected about Tesla investors....

It's not just Tesla investors although Tesla is of course a well loved brand amongst millennials. Hey, if one can't own the car then at least own the stock...  :D  There's plenty of US companies that one is not sure will ever make profits, Netflix being another. Their spend per Oscar earned is mind boggling, and with competitors fast emerging they may already have reached "peak eyeballs". 

At least we can easily see what most of these young, "Robin Hood", uninformed investors are buying. Do they even know that Robin Hood sells their trading intentions to the pros, who get to front-run them? Do the millenialls even care? I suspect not, at least whilst prices are being ramped. Of the FANG crowd, it would seem that only Amazon has substance, although they too are probably hitting peak limits to growth and anti-competitive regulators are circling it seems.

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