Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Patrick

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 396
1
Off topic / Live chat
« on: December 08, 2019, 06:59:56 pm »
No need to end in cash, you can stay invested

2
Shares / APF
« on: December 06, 2019, 11:00:05 pm »
APF 16.13 cents - LDT: 28 Jan 2020

3
Shares / AXL
« on: December 06, 2019, 11:00:05 pm »
AXL 42.00 cents - LDT: 7 Jan 2020

4
Shares / LBHP
« on: December 06, 2019, 11:00:05 pm »
LBHP 5.50 cents - LDT: 30 Dec 2019

5
Shares / SYGJ
« on: December 06, 2019, 11:00:05 pm »
SYGJ 35.00 cents - LDT: 20 Dec 2019

6
Shares / SYG
« on: December 06, 2019, 11:00:05 pm »
SYG 35.00 cents - LDT: 20 Dec 2019

7
Shares / VKE
« on: December 06, 2019, 11:00:05 pm »
VKE 80.84 cents - LDT: 17 Dec 2019

8
Shares / AEY
« on: December 06, 2019, 11:00:05 pm »
AEY 95.00 cents - LDT: 17 Dec 2019

10
Off topic / Live chat
« on: December 03, 2019, 12:47:14 pm »
Everyone will have a different opinion. Personally I like all world indexes, particularly VT and VWRD.

11
Off topic / Re: Question re FIRE future returns
« on: December 02, 2019, 08:17:46 am »
Hey Bevan,

I'm not terribly concerned. I think the world is making a lot of progress in addressing poverty, and still managing lots of growth. My bigger concern is that the growth has been higher than the fundamentals would indicate it should be.

Just FYI, the world as a whole has been making amazing progress on ending poverty over the last few years, and I expect it'll continue to improve over time:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-in-extreme-poverty-absolute

As to the main question, what sort of growth do we need to maintain a withdrawal of 4%? A quick excel should show that the simple answer would be inflation + 4% growth: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XBK7V7VKA_V5iL7ZIVJvdOBcMlEP1YzuhD6dByIQMEA/edit?usp=sharing

The more complex answer would be inflation + 4% + enough to take care of taxes, fees, costs and more taxes! It's hard to figure out how much that would be, but I imagine adding another 1% would be enough, so my guess is inflation + 5%!

The other problem is that growth isn't linear and predictable. I wish it was, it would make life so much simpler to predict, so on top of the growth number I also fee you've got to build in some flexibility, kind of in the way I spoke about in my 5% drawdown without fail blog post: https://investorchallenge.co.za/the-5-rule-that-has-never-failed/

12
Shares / KAL
« on: November 29, 2019, 11:00:05 pm »
KAL 90.00 cents - LDT: 11 Feb 2020

13
Shares / PPH
« on: November 29, 2019, 11:00:05 pm »
PPH 20.90 cents - LDT: 21 Jan 2020

14
Shares / QFH
« on: November 29, 2019, 11:00:05 pm »
QFH 25.00 cents - LDT: 14 Jan 2020

15
Shares / TBS
« on: November 29, 2019, 11:00:05 pm »
TBS 434.00 cents - LDT: 7 Jan 2020

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 396