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New FTSE 100 Structure:

Your return numbers are misleading. Working for a regulated brokerage you really should be more careful.

You're offering an option structure based on the current strike price of the FTSE. It returns 18% per annum in simple interest, not 54% or 72%. That's just you adding up all those 18% returns.... i.e. if I invest R100 in this structure then after 3 years I assume I get my R100 back plus R18*3 = R154. Compound interest would have given me R164 back. Nevertheless, 18% per annum is still pretty good.

Of course if markets do better than 18% return per annum then the option writer gets to keep that upside. Not so? Also, what happens if for some reason the FTSE is 40% lower? Then I presume the option is worthless and one loses their premium i.e. their initial R100...?

I imagine this would appeal to an investor who thinks markets are neither going to shoot the lights out, or fall too much. I reckon there's a decent crowd out there who might fall into that mindset. Either way, must be a nice book for your option traders to manage. Short vol, negative gamma trading is always exciting.   

Hi Bevan,

That was a comprehensive round up on what is on the ground in SA. I think starting small with consistent aim at direct marketing/selling to consumers is the way forward. Do you think from scratch interest can be generated in a CSA type venture? I am visiting your site now and will reply soon.

Thanks again for taking the time to  reply

It's really difficult to beat the price of FMCG retail eggs. Eggs are typically  super KVI's for the big retailers i.e. they sometimes loss-lead on these items and then hope to gouge you on other stuff that you don't pay close attention to the pricing of, especially those sweets on the exit aisles. So I doubt many are going to invest in a poultry CSA to get cheap eggs. However, I expect there will be several initiatives such as www.livestockwealth.com in the near future, where people can invest in a financial product that offers a decent return, with an option to take the physical e.g. eggs or cattle. In general, with low value items you want to avoid doing logistics at all costs. Fine if the people come to the farm to pick up, but forget about offering deliveries.

I watched The Big Short on Netflix yesterday and enjoyed it immensely. Apart from some minor technicalities, I reckon they did a pretty good job of capturing the 2007/2008 mania and ensuing trades etc. Technicalities like if you have a short swap (ISDA) position with Bear Stearns, and then close out your exposure with UBS because you think Bear is going bankrupt, you've actually doubled your risk i.e. Bear won't pay you if they go bust whilst UBS will still expect payment.

Anyway, in the final credits it mentions Dr. Burry now only invests in one commodity... water. Having been in contact with him he explained his strategy some more to me. He's actually buying up water-rich farmland and planting water-intensive crops such as almonds etc. Reason being that water is rapidly disappearing across the globe, thanks to climate change, and these crops are going to be very rare in future. Many farmers I've spoken with are now saying that the past year has been the worst in terms of our drought. Yes, we've had rain, but thanks to the general temperature increases, the soil is too hot and baked to germinate crops. Plus, any rain just runs off the hard land now, and evaporates too quickly as well. Climate change is real folks and we're on the cusp of the hockey stick. Agriculture is going to get hit hard and I reckon we will soon stop exporting our water in the form of fruits and other crops pretty soon. This will affect everything and the taps will run dry in the next few years if something isn't done soon. Israel is far ahead in this game - they price water accurately, they recycle 90% of their black water for agriculture, they desalinate and they don't waste a single drop in the form of leaks. Plus most homes also all recycle their grey water for domestic, washing use, or for home-grown crops.

With that in mind, other than water-rich land, what investments do you see as being vital in the water sector?

Edit: Water is not actually disappearing. It can't be destroyed. Like energy, it simply transfers form on its ultimate journey from cloud, to river, to sea and back again. But it is being distributed in different ways now. Climatologists refer to this as 'drought and deluge'.

Patrick, how about a little test? Would you be able to throw a MACD indicator on there. Say 3 (Fast EMA), 9 (Slow EMA), 21 (Signal Line). Would be interested to see how performance improves, or not...

Hi to all the more tech-minded amongst you... Like many, I've ditched DSTV for Netflix and the wider net. However, I can't seem to find a really decent streaming news and financial site. Of course I understand most outlets are trying to build their brands and offerings via their own apps etc. However, surely there must be a decent news and financials aggregator out there for free. Anyone have any advice in this area? 1st prize would of course be a news aggregator covering US, UK, international and SA news and markets, but I reckon that is a tall order.

Seems the PPT were called in for closing market action on DJIA. SA stocks rallying on the back of that but Dow will probably close weaker today, depending on how much support will be given to markets after non-farm payrolls.... Then SA stocks will probably correct down on the open Monday....

Daily momentum on DJIA just turned negative. Tomorrow could be a nasty day, if no support kicks in. Wonder if the Plunge Protection Team is still active these days? Although probably out of pocket due to all the Fed's spending of last few years....

This is a great video to watch on the coming retirement crisis.... Some great insights on the future of the financial system, entrepreneurship as well.