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Hello guys, everything in this world revolves around money and it is kind of sad that we live in this kind of world. Money is something we invented and now it is controlling us. I have tried to live a life where money does not play that big of a part, but it is not possible. The newest thing is introduction of cryptocurrency and I see how people are going mad about it. I wanted to try it out, but after reading some articles on investotrend.com I came to the solution that it is not worth it. The market is on a down now and it does not make sense.

Cryptocurrency will have a role to play in any future financial system, but the "killer app" has not yet been launched. Creating money because a computer solves an algorithm or a wealthy investor "stakes" his existing wealth, has no utility value and besides, transaction fees and times are insane and getting worse. Cryptocurrency is similar to where we were in the late 90's with the initial dot-com boom, with things like pets.com and askjeeves.com . But of course Amazon was also emerging around that time too.....

Harmony is the fund's favourite and it certainly attracts the most eyeballs. Then Ashanti, Gold Fields etc. followed lastly by DRD Gold. Unfortunately DRD is quite illiquid relative to the others, but it's attractive when the price runs. Assuming they don't piss away their tiny margin from tailings on overhead costs....

We've had the expected correction in equities now and the next week or so are now crucial.... Do we revert to the wild, QE-fuelled bull run we've seen so far this year, or is there something more nefarious lurking out there. A weekly chart of the Vanguard All World ETF is very similar to most other equity markets, suggesting it is looking to break down, leading to more choppy sideways action - for now.

After this inevitable subsiding of momentum, will we then see the classic bull-flag upwards breakout again, or do we see a more sustained structural break downwards? Too early to tell right now. But either way, keeping our powder dry is the best strategy for now.

2020 has been a fascinating year so far to learn about how financial markets are adjusting to the new monetary order. Warren Buffett has made the bold move of investing into yen-denominated Japanese trading houses such as the legendary Mitsui and other "keiretsu". Guess he's not interested in being 100% in USD anymore... The cracks are starting to show now.... 

Does anyone has a list of JSE stocks which can be SHORT?  Any which brokers provide the service?

You can short pretty much any share, but this is something you would typically do via a broker. Also it's much easier to short via a CFD platform such as IG INDEX for instance.

We've had a nice little rally on the Dow as expected, even though it was a bit of a shaky start last Thursday / Friday. However, this gave really nice levels to get in at and we've enjoyed at least a 1,000 point rally in a week. However, the rally was a lot less energetic than I was expecting, meaning we might be nearing the end of stimulus induced rallies. C'mon the FED.... We need more cash and more newbies to pump markets higher.

Anyway, most stock markets should continue drifting higher for now. I expect that the rest of August should see further gains, but with daily momentum almost peaking now, I can't see markets shooting the lights out. I predict that the reality of Main Street economic woes will start setting in and many will start taking profits. I think it's too early for that as regards this latest move but definitely time to bring up those trailing stops....

Remember that most traders lose money because they cut their profits too early and let their losses run, when of course properly disciplined traders do the exact opposite. If trading was a 50:50 coin toss each time, then mathematically one should make money if you let your profits run at least twice the distance of where you cut your losses. Easier said than done of course.... Which is why robots make the best traders.

I'm amazed at how gold has continued to run. I was expecting the $2,000 level and of course when that was breached we saw a whole bunch of new cash coming in as it made news headlines. Silver has done even better, with a smaller trading and investing community and far more demand for the physical, as wealth storage in coins, bars etc. Personally I think silver is awesome and it should find increasing use in medical and other industrial applications as well. Even the ancient druids knew of colloidal silver's medicinal uses, and they used silver reflected light when operating Stonehenge as an advance invasion warning system.

Anyway, I'm babbling. No new trades to put on right now and we're looking for an opportune time to exit our longs in the Dow. We might use the pullback after that to go long again before momentum turns down on the monthly chart, at which time we will be looking for that exciting short opportunity. Meanwhile, shorting vol is still a decent trade, especially considering the overnight free interest carry earned by most CFD providers.

Another one that looks to be breaking upwards on a monthly chart is crude oil... However, note that the signal line is still deep in negative territory on the momentum graph. Thus, this is a cross-current upside break, although the red signal line does look like it wants to start turning up again as well... So whilst not as positive as stocks, this is another one to potentially go long with.

Sasol should of course benefit from both "risk on" and an upside breakout with crude. However, I don't think it's a long term share to hold. Much better to trade via CFD exposure, even with the interest overhead. However, note with crude that we are around the 50% retracement level on the monthly chart. I don't see crude making an upside run for too long... I think we'll be lucky to see $48 on WTI and then the market will retrace once more. The physical supply demand dynamics just don't support a strong crude price right now.

Out of interest, something similar to today's monthly Dow pattern happened in 2008 before the financial crash really got going. In fact, the signal line (red line in bottom graph hasn't been negative since the 2008 crash. But in March 2008 the rally was not nearly so strong as it is today. Then again, those were the days just before QE became a thing.

I for one am generally happy to follow the crowds in this current market euphoria. However, I know in my bones that no nation can ever outrun its debt problems, from the fall of Rome to France and more modern countries. The US is wholly dependent on the USD being the currency that can buy the entire world's production, hence they don't have an inflation problem, even while running the monster of all deficits ever known. However, China is doing everything in its power to ensure that the USD is toppled. Then there is US social security which goes bust in a little under 10 years.

When, not if, the USD collapses and/or defaults on its bondholders, that will usher in the biggest financial crisis the world has ever seen. It's not going to happen tomorrow, or even in the next fear or two. There are still a few options allowing policymakers to kick the can down the road, although they are almost out of options now. In 5 years time the world is going to be a vastly different place.

Yes thank you have confirmed what I have always suspected about Tesla investors....

It's not just Tesla investors although Tesla is of course a well loved brand amongst millennials. Hey, if one can't own the car then at least own the stock...    There's plenty of US companies that one is not sure will ever make profits, Netflix being another. Their spend per Oscar earned is mind boggling, and with competitors fast emerging they may already have reached "peak eyeballs". 

At least we can easily see what most of these young, "Robin Hood", uninformed investors are buying. Do they even know that Robin Hood sells their trading intentions to the pros, who get to front-run them? Do the millenialls even care? I suspect not, at least whilst prices are being ramped. Of the FANG crowd, it would seem that only Amazon has substance, although they too are probably hitting peak limits to growth and anti-competitive regulators are circling it seems.