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General Category => Off topic => Topic started by: Moneypenny on March 11, 2014, 05:34:15 pm

Title: Human Nature & Bull/Bear Phases
Post by: Moneypenny on March 11, 2014, 05:34:15 pm

Where are you now?

I'm thinking most investors are at 'euphoria' starting very slowly to move over to 'unease'. 

I'm between denial & pessimism. :P

Title: Re: Human Nature & Bull/Bear Phases
Post by: Nios on March 18, 2014, 07:24:31 pm

Im in dissapointed phase that I did not invest over the last 2 years, seeing I could've made some serious cash. :-[
Oh that phase doesnt exist.

I guess the time to invest is now all the way down the bear curve buying on the cheap. But has the Bear phase started yet, is the question. Gold is definitley not bearish right now though...

Title: Re: Human Nature & Bull/Bear Phases
Post by: Bevan on March 19, 2014, 07:35:24 am

Human nature reflects in the markets as the "fear" and "greed" primary emotions you hear of. However, it must also be borne in mind that different traders and investors have different time horizons they invest on and each has a different pain point. For instance, most pension fund money is invested over the long term. They are slow to get in and slow to get out. You need to look at a monthly momentum chart to see the "emotion" of pension fund money. On the other end of the scale, scalpers are 5 minute charters but those money flows don't move markets. The market makers probably make most decisions on the back of a few days to a week's move so best to look at a weekly chart to see those money flows.

Now when a monthly chart is showing the same momentum move as a weekly chart which is showing the same as a daily chart then best to sit up and take notice.... Right now equities on a daily chart are oversold and looking to break up. A weekly chart shows positive trend but potentially momentum wanting to break down. A monthly chart is overbought and wanting to break down. My view is that markets are confused, wanting to rally into the "Sell in May" phenomenon but news flow is erratic and traders are getting nervous. Sometimes the best trade is to sit on your hands and do nothing.

Title: Re: Human Nature & Bull/Bear Phases
Post by: Moneypenny on March 20, 2014, 09:03:31 am

'Sell in May & Go Away' is soooo 1970's, fc.

Remember, the earth is making a 'wobbly' motion on its own axis (precession of equinoxes), in effect moving backwards by degrees over time.

Thus, may I suggest:

How 'bout 'Sell in April and Go Away'?  :whistle: