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General Category => Shares => Topic started by: Moonraker on January 30, 2014, 12:30:08 pm

Title: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on January 30, 2014, 12:30:08 pm
This so called Rand Hedge is performing so poorly on the LSE that its Rand Hedge status here has been more than a
total disaster. It is one of my LT holds so am pretty disappointed.
BTI is a similar story - dead in the water on LSE. I hold those as well.

 :wall:

Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Fundamental on January 30, 2014, 04:43:10 pm
SAB is looking rather undervalued (from a technical analysis standpoint) at the moment - perhaps hold onto it?
Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Moonraker on January 31, 2014, 01:23:20 pm
SAB again tanking today. On LSE the vertical axis of their chart is being regularly extended downwards to accommodate
the tanking process.
One would think beer drinking and craft beer drinking has been outlawed, with the death penalty for those daring to imbibe.
Hello Fundamental, are the fundamentals still OK ?  ;)

 :wtf:

Edit: Spelling mistake corrected, I still have some of the stuff in the fridge.
Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Moonraker on February 05, 2014, 09:34:52 am
Fundamental says SAB is undervalued. I wish that would be the case, but ..

SABMiller (http://www.4-traders.com/SABMILLER-9590113/strategies-strategies/Support-breakdown-to-reinforce-the-position-17892959/)
Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Fundamental on February 05, 2014, 11:12:21 am
Haha you would definitely think everyone would be drinking more with the way the emerging market is going! I merely valuated from a technical stand point - saw a head and shoulder pattern and awaiting triple bottom before it increases (hopefully). Fundamentally the company as with most companies is overvalued (hence the correction in most stocks at the moment) so difficult to say what will happen - what are your views as SAB being used as a rand hedge, potentially driving a bit of demand for the stock?
Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Moonraker on February 05, 2014, 12:15:54 pm
Being a defensive stock as well as a Rand hedge, I topped up my holdings in August 2013 @ 468.
Whether this was silly or not remains to be seen, but most are recommending shorting in the short term.
As a long term investor, I will continue holding, just peeved that the drop in London over the past couple
of weeks outpaced the much weaker Rand, thus more than negating the Rand hedge aspect.
Up a little on LSE today, probably because I had a Grolsch yesterday.  :wall:
Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Orca on February 06, 2014, 06:13:26 pm
Traders traded her down to close the gap and by chance, this was also at support.
Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Moonraker on February 13, 2014, 03:37:29 pm
 MILLERCOORS DELIVERS 5.5% UNDERLYING NET INCOME GROWTH FOR 2013 Results Driven By 30 Percent Profit Growth in Fourth Quarter (http://data.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb/sharedata/scripts/sens.asp?id=227463)
                     
That doesn't look so bad. With the ₤ strength on the crosses both BTI and SAB are sort of coming out of the doldrums.
Nothing special, just thought I would add to the thread.

 8)
Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Orca on February 13, 2014, 07:18:43 pm
Traders traded her down to close the gap and by chance, this was also at support.

Now why don't I use these stripes and things in my real portfolio. It worked good here.
Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Moonraker on March 03, 2014, 06:55:27 pm
I have heard this before .. but justin hold those SAB.  8)

AB InBev Need for SABMiller Mega-Deal Grows (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/ab-inbev-need-for-sabmiller-mega-deal-grows-real-m-a.html)

Quote
Slowing growth at Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI) and a dearth of big takeover targets may finally drive the world’s biggest brewer to swallow its $79 billion rival, SABMiller Plc.

After AB InBev boosted revenue more than fivefold in the last 10 years with the help of $91 billion of acquisitions, growth for the maker of Budweiser and Stella Artois is forecast to slow over the next decade, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Tapping into SABMiller’s presence in faster-expanding regions such as Africa would allow AB InBev to get that growth flowing again, shareholders Alpine Woods Capital Investors LLC and Henderson Global Investors said.

SABMiller Chief Executive Officer Alan Clark told Bloomberg News in January that the case could be made for a tie-up, even though it would likely require divesting some U.S. operations to appease regulators. Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., which dubbed an AB InBev-SABMiller combination “MegaBrew,” estimates it would have almost half the global beer profit pool. The deal would increase earnings at AB InBev immediately if it paid a 30 percent premium for SABMiller in cash, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Cost cuts could drive profit even higher.

 Signage is seen through the window of the Anheuser-Busch InBev NV Fairfield brewery in... Read More

“It’s such an obvious next -- and indeed last -- big move by the very acquisitive AB InBev,” said Matthew Beesley, head of global equities at London-based Henderson Global Investors, which oversees $125 billion, including shares of AB InBev. “There’s also clearly some strategic rationale to the deal, neatly filling all the geographic holes AB InBev talks of wanting to fill.”

Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Orca on March 03, 2014, 07:45:38 pm
Look at her recovery since closing the gap.
Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Moonraker on March 25, 2014, 04:30:21 pm
Hmmm... That's more like it !

SABMiller (SAB) added 3.8 percent to 2,942 pence. Sanford C. Bernstein raised its rating on the world’s second-biggest brewer to outperform, the equivalent of buy, from market perform. The brokerage said growth may improve significantly as the effects of emerging-market currency moves may be waning.

(Bloomberg today)
Title: Re: SAB - dead in the water
Post by: Moonraker on September 15, 2014, 07:57:05 am
SABMiller Plc (SAB) was rebuffed in an attempt to buy smaller brewer Heineken NV (HEIA) (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-14/sabmiller-said-to-approach-heineken-family-with-offer-for-brewer.html)

Quote
SABMiller Plc (SAB) was rebuffed in an attempt to buy smaller brewer Heineken NV (HEIA), a deal that would have strengthened itself against a potential bid by Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI), people with knowledge of the matter said.
Title: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on September 16, 2015, 01:02:55 pm
Check the price.

 
The Board of SABMiller notes the recent press speculation and confirms that Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV ("ABInBev") has informed SABMiller that it intends to make a proposal to acquire SABMiller. No proposal has yet been received and the Board of SABMiller has no further details about the terms of any such proposal.

The Board of SABMiller will review and respond as appropriate to any proposal which might be made.

There can be no certainty that an offer will be made or as to the terms on which any offer might be made.

In the interim, shareholders are strongly advised to retain their shares and to take no action.

Accordingly, in accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, SABMiller announces that, by not later than 5.00 pm on 14 October 2015, ABInBev must either announce a firm intention to make an offer for SABMiller under Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer for SABMiller, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline will only be extended with the consent of the Takeover Panel in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.

 
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Patrick on September 16, 2015, 02:13:22 pm
 ??? 20% up ???

STXIND up nearly 5% thank you SAB.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Bevan on September 16, 2015, 03:43:50 pm
Same thing happened last year or year before I believe. Nothing came of it then and quite frankly, I can't see how this time can be any different. What Competition Commission anywhere in the world would allow the No. 1 and No. 2 brewer in the world to merge?
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Fawkes85 on September 16, 2015, 05:05:54 pm
Same thing happened last year or year before I believe. Nothing came of it then and quite frankly, I can't see how this time can be any different. What Competition Commission anywhere in the world would allow the No. 1 and No. 2 brewer in the world to merge?

I was wondering the same thing. I am no expert but you do not have to be an expert to know that when the number 1 and 2 companies in sector were to merge it would create a monopoly. I don't see this deal going through without some terms being set for these two companies like for instance ABInBev will only be allowed to buy SAB but not the Miller part or vice versa. Or maybe they can buy SABMiller but not before SABMiller sell of Coors and some other brands.

Again I am no expert. What do you guys think?
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on September 16, 2015, 05:35:06 pm
It will happen.

Quote
An offer for SABMiller would probably have to be at least a 30 percent premium to its stock price before yesterday’s rise, or more than 39 pounds ($60) per share, according to an analyst note from Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. That would value SABMiller at about 63 billion pounds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

U.S. regulators are likely to ask for the disposal of SABMiller’s stake in Miller Coors in the U.S., while AB InBev may also have to sell SABMiller’s 49 percent stake in CR Snow Zeijang in China, the analysts said.

According to David Shapiro, if the deal goes through, SAB shareholders may receive cash as a dual inward listing may not come about due to the tiny SA holdings. Altria holds 27% and the Columbian family interests 14%. Biggest shareholder here, the PIC only holds 3%.
That would be rather sad.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Fawkes85 on September 18, 2015, 08:39:31 am
If the deal goes through there is a chance we won't be able buy into the new company. This from Moneyweb:

"Whether the company would remain listed on the JSE is of course dependent on the structure of the deal, but with less than 20% of the shares listed in SA, it seems highly unlikely."
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on September 18, 2015, 09:41:50 am
What to do ? Should I hold for now hoping the deal will be clinched when there will be another ± 10% premium on the current price and then receive the cash if not dual listed ?
Or sell some or all now in case the deal is rejected by SAB ?
Or simply hold and hope for a dual listing ?
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Mr_Dividend on September 18, 2015, 10:04:48 am
My wife has a few and was very tempted to tell her to sell yesterday. I hate selling, and she actually has never sold a share - she got into SAB @ R250. Looking at the business - I cannot see where growth will come from to justify a 25 p/e - if anything H/E might go down due to weakness in developing countries currency. So then it just becomes a play on the take over - which IF successful will take quite a while I guess.

I would be VERY tempted to take the money and run. IMO
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Fawkes85 on September 18, 2015, 12:34:17 pm
Do you guys really think the deal will go through? The fact that SAB came out and made the offer public was somewhat due to regulations in the UK but at the same time I think they did it to do AB in a little bit. Now AB's hand is forced and they have to commit within (now less than) 28 days. I don't think SAB wants to sell and by going public with the offer I think they were trying to prevent AB from having enough time to get all their ducks in a row.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on September 18, 2015, 01:06:58 pm
I was going to sell my 1500 but am a few months short of holding them for 3 years. Don't want to be classified as a trader so will continue to hold for now.
The deal will go through because ABI will do their utmost to make it attractive to SAB board and shareholders. A 10% premium over the current price
is expected.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Patrick on September 18, 2015, 01:43:04 pm
I'm curious as to how that will affect the STXIND. SAB currently makes up 18.7% of the index, so it will have a significant impact.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: yozzi on September 18, 2015, 06:39:07 pm
I'm curious as to how that will affect the STXIND. SAB currently makes up 18.7% of the index, so it will have a significant impact.

Interesting point and hopefully it's a positive impact!
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Orca on September 19, 2015, 04:05:51 pm
SAB's primary listing is in London. Should they delist from the JSE, the STXIND would not budge at all as the other stocks in the basket will instantly increase in size to fill the gap.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: tmsf12 on September 23, 2015, 12:40:21 pm
I'm curious as to how that will affect the STXIND. SAB currently makes up 18.7% of the index, so it will have a significant impact.

Source: http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-radio/safm-market-update/understanding-the-markets-101-simon-brown-justonelap

Quote
PETER: Hi Siki. I’d like to ask the panel by how many points the JSE index will fall if SABMiller is delisted from the JSE, because every point is about R215m. In my estimation it should be about 11 000, about R2.3trn or R2.3bn – I’m not quite sure.

WAYNE McCURRIE: What’s the difference between a billion and a trillion between friends? [Chuckles]

PETER: I’m wondering – what’s the main thing?

SIKI MGABADELI: Thanks, Peter.

WAYNE McCURRIE: Interestingly the index won’t fall because SAB is removed from the listing. It doesn’t mean that money has disappeared or is lost, it’s just now possibly going to be listed somewhere else. So SA Breweries will come out of the index, but the index value won’t fall. So simplistically, if SA Breweries is 10% of the index and it cancels its listing on our stock market – its primary listing is already in London, this is only a secondary listing – then every other company in the index will become 10% bigger. But the index will not fall. So the index is only about price movements, the same as when British American Tobacco, which is bigger than SAB, listed on our market. The market didn’t go up 12%. Just the movement of that share from the day it lists affects the index.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Patrick on September 23, 2015, 01:18:27 pm
Thanks for that tmsf. If that's the case, then the holdings of all the other shares will rise by about 18.5% or so. That would mean that STXIND will have a holding in Naspers of 20.8%! That's quite high. At the moment I'm 50% STXIND and 50% DIVTRX, but I think I might go 33% STXIND and 67% DIVTRX in future to minimize my risk. It'll still mean I'll be around 10% invested in NPN though. More than I'd like, but I'll just have to hope Tencent continues strongly.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Fawkes85 on September 23, 2015, 01:43:28 pm
Thanks for that tmsf. If that's the case, then the holdings of all the other shares will rise by about 18.5% or so. That would mean that STXIND will have a holding in Naspers of 20.8%! That's quite high. At the moment I'm 50% STXIND and 50% DIVTRX, but I think I might go 33% STXIND and 67% DIVTRX in future to minimize my risk. It'll still mean I'll be around 10% invested in NPN though. More than I'd like, but I'll just have to hope Tencent continues strongly.

I don't think that will necessarily happen that way. I stand corrected here, but isn't the Indi basically the Top40 minus all the resources? So if SAB is gone there will be a spot open on the Top40. If that spot is filled with a non-resources company then that company will fall under the Indi and thus will form part of STXIND's holdings.

I might be misunderstanding how everything works though.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Mr_Dividend on September 23, 2015, 01:50:39 pm
BTW  - STXFINI's  new make up:

Code    Share                                 weight    weight
BAT      Brait SE                               0.00%     3.83%
BGA      Barclays Africa Group Ltd              4.82%     4.82%
CCO      Capital & Counties Properties PLC      2.37%     2.34%
DSY      Discovery Ltd                          3.72%     3.74%
FSR      FirstRand Ltd                         13.70%    13.47%
GRT      Growthpoint Properties Ltd             5.56%     5.62%
INL      Investec Ltd                           2.30%     2.30%
INP      Investec plc                           5.64%     5.45%
ITU      Intu Properties plc                    5.24%     5.26%
MMI      MMI Holdings Ltd                       2.26%     0.00%
NED      Nedbank Group Ltd                      3.81%     3.78%
OML      Old Mutual plc                        16.60%    15.89%
REI      Reinet Investments SCA                 3.61%     3.56%
RMH      RMB Holdings Ltd                       3.83%     3.81%
RMI      Rand Merchant Insurance Holdings       2.57%     2.53%
         Ltd
SBK      Standard Bank Group Ltd               14.74%    14.55%
SLM      Sanlam Ltd                             9.23%     9.05%
                                              100.00%   100.00%
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Patrick on September 23, 2015, 02:29:51 pm
Thanks for that tmsf. If that's the case, then the holdings of all the other shares will rise by about 18.5% or so. That would mean that STXIND will have a holding in Naspers of 20.8%! That's quite high. At the moment I'm 50% STXIND and 50% DIVTRX, but I think I might go 33% STXIND and 67% DIVTRX in future to minimize my risk. It'll still mean I'll be around 10% invested in NPN though. More than I'd like, but I'll just have to hope Tencent continues strongly.

I don't think that will necessarily happen that way. I stand corrected here, but isn't the Indi basically the Top40 minus all the resources? So if SAB is gone there will be a spot open on the Top40. If that spot is filled with a non-resources company then that company will fall under the Indi and thus will form part of STXIND's holdings.

I might be misunderstanding how everything works though.

You're right, but at the moment, # 25 of the STXIND is the Distel group at 0.19%, so the new share in the index would be that size or smaller, and have no real effect on the big players up top.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Bevan on September 23, 2015, 03:43:51 pm
SAB's future growth will come from the 25 to 40 year old up and coming emerging wealthy African consumer. What is being termed the African Renaissance or Afropolitan consumer. By 2050 Africa will have almost the same population as Asia as their populations flatten out and decline. Plus SAB is also reaping the benefits of merging their SA and African procurement businesses, modernising and getting efficiencies in the rest of Africa. I would not sell this one for love or money.

"And Hows yer Bush?" knows this very well and is trying to pick them up on the cheap.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on September 24, 2015, 03:38:49 pm
SABMiller bid could hit R840/share (http://www.financialmail.co.za/moneyinvesting/2015/09/24/sabmiller-bid-could-hit-r840share)

Something to chew on when making decisions to hold/sell/buy more ..

Quote
Van Cuyck also questions ABI’s ability to add long-term value. “SABMiller is already highly efficient,” he says. “There is probably also more opportunity in SABMiller as it exists today than as part of ABI.”

Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on September 28, 2015, 10:28:35 am
SABMiller Jumps on Speculation of Imminent Offer From AB InBev (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/sabmiller-jumps-on-speculation-of-imminent-offer-from-ab-inbev)
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on September 29, 2015, 06:35:57 pm
September 29, 2015 — 5:24 PM SAST Updated on September 29, 2015 — 5:43 PM SAST

Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, SocGen also submitted proposals
ABI, SAB have had informal contact since plan was disclosed

Anheuser-Busch InBev NV is lining up banks including Bank of America Corp. and Banco Santander SA to arrange as much as $70 billion in financing as it prepares to make a takeover proposal for SABMiller Plc, according to people familiar with the matter.
Deutsche Bank AG, BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA have also submitted financing proposals to the world’s biggest brewer, said the people, asking not to be named as the matter is private. AB InBev is working with about 10 banks to arrange total financing of $50 billion to $70 billion, they said. Talks are ongoing and the timing of any offer will depend on finalizing the funding package, they said.
Since AB InBev’s intention to pursue a takeover of SABMiller was disclosed on Sept. 16, there has been informal contact between the companies, two of the people said. Any deal could value the smaller, London-listed brewer at more than $100 billion, according to analysts’ estimates.
SABMiller shares rose as much as 6.9 percent in London and closed 4.9 percent higher at 3,814 pence. AB InBev pared losses to close down 2.8 percent at 93.55 euros.
The acquisition of SABMiller would be the biggest in the industry’s history and cap more than a decade of consolidation across brewing companies. AB InBev may pay more than 4,200 pence for each share of SABMiller, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on the average estimate of five analysts. That would value SABMiller at about 68 billion pounds ($103 billion).
SABMiller is signaling it may consider an offer of about 4,300 pence to 4,500 pence per share, two of the people said, adding that the valuation is still being discussed and will also depend on the structure of the offer.
The beer maker would probably raise about $60 billion of debt to finance the acquisition, Owen Murfin, a London-based portfolio manager on BlackRock Inc.’s global bond team, said last week. That would be a record bond offering, exceeding the $49 billion that Verizon Communications Inc. raised two years ago to fund its buyout of Vodafone Group Plc’s stake in a wireless venture.
Under the U.K. Takeover Panel rules, AB InBev has till 5 p.m. on Oct. 14 to make an offer or announce it doesn’t intend to proceed. SABMiller may also ask the panel for an extension.
Spokesmen for AB InBev and SABMiller declined to comment. Representatives for BofA, Deutsche Bank, Santander and SocGen also declined to comment. Officials at BNP Paribas didn’t respond to requests to comment.

InBev Said to Line Up BofA, Santander on SABMiller Financing (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/abi-said-to-line-up-bofa-santander-for-70-billion-sab-funding)
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Fawkes85 on October 08, 2015, 05:02:13 am
SAB Rejects another offer from ABinBev:

Confident that it occupies an unassailable position in emerging markets, the board of SABMiller has rejected a third offer from the world’s biggest brewer AB InBev, arguing that it undervalues the company.

“AB InBev is disappointed that the board of SABMiller has rejected both of these prior approaches without any meaningful engagement,” the maker of Becks, Corona and Budweiser said. “AB InBev believes that the revised cash proposal of £42.15 per share is at a level that the board of SABMiller should recommend.”

The SABMiller board did not agree. “SABMiller is the crown jewel of the global brewing industry, uniquely positioned to continue to generate decades of standalone future volume and value growth for all SABMiller shareholders from highly attractive markets,” said Jan du Plessis, chairman of SABMiller. “AB InBev needs SABMiller but has made opportunistic and highly conditional proposals, elements of which have been deliberately designed to be unattractive to many of our shareholders. AB InBev is very substantially undervaluing SABMiller.”

But even more interestingly:

What is clear is that ABI views Africa as a critical driver of growth for the combined company. To show its commitment to the continent, the company plans a secondary listing in Johannesburg and a local board. “We would highlight that about 10% of SABMiller shares are held in South Africa,” said Mundy. “The secondary listing of ABI shares serves to appease local shareholders (including the Public Investment Corp., a 3% shareholder of SAB stock).”
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on October 12, 2015, 04:01:11 pm
AB InBev Lifts SABMiller Takeover Proposal to $103.6 Billion (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-12/ab-inbev-raises-sabmiller-takeover-proposal-to-103-6-billion)
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Broke(r) on October 12, 2015, 07:21:29 pm
I did something I never thought I would - cashed in my SAB at around 760...  :(

The first share I ever owned - served me very well. At least I'm on the CGT side of the tax hammer.
Always thought this would be the one that would be passed from generation to generation starting something of a 'small legacy'.

Then read a lot and some more and by accident tuned-in to the money show on 702 on my way home somewhere last week and realised that I cannot and should not hold on forever.
I've already made this mistake a couple of times as "I want to invest, not trade"...

I simply don't have a solid enough argument to question Garth Mackenzie et al's "take the money and run" stance on SAB.
Even if the 'big deal' happens, a helluva lot of good news is already priced in, in anticipation... and if it doesn't, well then I suppose a drop will be inevitable.

There's a lot of costs to be saved in SAB and InBev will likely be able to do so (http://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/sabmiller-better-get-ready-for-a-ceo-who-doesnt-like-to-have-fun/), but will that be enough?
ABInB wants Africa and they can only get it through SAB - but that's a lot of baggage to carry for a short trip...

In a way, I hope I'm wrong about my sale.
But for now, I'm pulling a Patrick and heading more towards the indexes to ride out the storms (INDI and DIVTRX being at the top of my list). Doubt that going forward 'megabrew' would be able to consistently outperform that which one can already earn with a lot less risk and panic via an index/ETF.

I might even wager a bet on more Sasol and some Discovery who I think represent some better and honest 'blue-chip' JSE value without having to work too hard for it.

SAB will remain firmly on my watchlist though... however long they remain on the JSE.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Mr_Dividend on October 13, 2015, 06:25:54 am
Personally think you did the right thing. Wish my wife would also sell. I should, at least, get a great "told you so" moment out of it.  I'm petty that way.   :whistle:

Just a thought - might be worth picking up some Taste and/or Aspen for the long term.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Fawkes85 on October 13, 2015, 07:39:14 am
Personally think you did the right thing. Wish my wife would also sell. I should, at least, get a great "told you so" moment out of it.  I'm petty that way.   :whistle:

Just a thought - might be worth picking up some Taste and/or Aspen for the long term.

I said this a month ago and I will say it again. I don't think this deal is going to happen. If I were you I would really get on your wife to sell those shares ASAP. After tomorrow, once the deal has failed, SAB shares are gonna go right back down again. So maybe tell your wife she can sell SAB today at a premium and buy em all back on Thursday for a discount?
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Broke(r) on October 13, 2015, 09:07:10 am
It is done... although very conditional at this point.
Only time will tell whether this will be good or bad.

Well, I made my bed...
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Samurai on October 13, 2015, 09:15:58 am
Wonder what this will mean for the JSE?
1) If the deal goes through will AB InBnec/SABMiller still have a secondary listing or will they just pack up and move to Brussels/New York?
2) As most unit trust and ETF index's includes these shares will their unit price rise or fall?
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on October 13, 2015, 09:59:15 am
SABMiller plc ("SABMiller") and Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV ("AB InBev")

Agreement in principle and extension of PUSU deadline

The Boards of AB InBev (Euronext: ABI) (NYSE: BUD) and SABMiller (LSE: SAB) (JSE: SAB) announce that they have reached agreement in principle on the key terms of a possible recommended offer to be made by AB InBev for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of SABMiller (the "Possible Offer").

Terms of Possible Offer

Under the terms of the Possible Offer, SABMiller shareholders would be entitled to receive GBP 44.00 per share in cash, with a partial share alternative ("PSA") available for approximately 41% of the SABMiller shares.

The all-cash offer represents a premium of approximately 50% to SABMiller's closing share price of GBP 29.34 on 14 September 2015 (being the last business day prior to renewed speculation of an approach from AB InBev).

The PSA consists of 0.483969 unlisted shares and GBP 3.7788 in cash for each SABMiller share, equivalent to a value of GBP 39.03 per SABMiller share on 12 October 2015, representing a premium of approximately 33% to the closing SABMiller share price of GBP 29.34 as of 14 September 2015. Further details of the PSA are set out below.

In addition, under the Possible Offer, SABMiller shareholders would be entitled to any dividends declared or paid by SABMiller in the ordinary course in respect of any completed six-month period ended 30 September or 31 March prior to completion of the possible transaction, which shall not exceed USD 0.2825 per share for the period ended 30 September 2015 and a further USD 0.9375 per share for the period ended 31 March 2016 (totalling USD 1.22 per share) and shall not exceed an amount to be agreed between AB InBev and SABMiller in respect of periods thereafter (which shall be disclosed in any announcement of a firm intention to make an offer).

The Board of SABMiller has indicated to AB InBev that it would be prepared unanimously to recommend the all-cash offer of GBP 44.00 per SABMiller share to SABMiller shareholders, subject to their fiduciary duties and satisfactory resolution of the other terms and conditions of the Possible Offer.



 
 

Antitrust and reverse break fee

In connection with the Possible Offer, AB InBev would agree to a "best efforts" commitment to obtain any regulatory clearances required to proceed to closing of the transaction. In addition, AB InBev would agree to a reverse break fee of USD 3 billion payable to SABMiller in the event that the transaction fails to close as a result of the failure to obtain regulatory clearances or the approval of AB InBev shareholders.

Pre-conditions

The announcement of a formal transaction would be subject to the following matters:

a)   unanimous recommendation by the Board of SABMiller in respect of the all-cash offer, and the execution of irrevocable undertakings to vote in favour of the transaction from members of the SABMiller Board, in a form acceptable to AB InBev;

b)   the execution of irrevocable undertakings to vote in favour of the transaction and to elect for the PSA from SABMiller's two major shareholders, Altria Group, Inc. and BevCo Ltd., in each case in respect of all of their shareholding and in a form acceptable to AB InBev and SABMiller;

c)   the execution of irrevocable undertakings to vote in favour of the transaction from AB InBev's largest shareholders, the Stichting Anheuser-Busch InBev, EPS Participations SaRL and BRC SaRL in a form acceptable to AB InBev and SABMiller;

d)   satisfactory completion of customary due diligence; and

e)   final approval by the Board of AB InBev.

The Board of AB InBev fully supports the terms of this Possible Offer and expects (subject to the matters above) to give its formal approval immediately prior to announcement.

AB InBev reserves the right to waive in whole or in part any of the pre-conditions to making an offer set out in this announcement, other than c) above which will not be waived.

The conditions of the transaction will be customary for a combination of this nature, and will include approval by both companies' shareholders and receipt of antitrust and regulatory approvals.

In view of the timetable for obtaining some of these approvals, AB InBev envisages proceeding by way of a pre-conditional scheme of arrangement in accordance with the Code.

The cash consideration under the transaction would be financed through a combination of AB InBev's internal financial resources and new third party debt.

Further details of the PSA

The PSA comprises up to 326 million shares, which will be available for approximately 41% of the SABMiller shares. These shares would take the form of a separate class of AB InBev shares (the "Restricted Shares")1, with the following characteristics:
 
·      Unlisted and not admitted to trading on any stock exchange;
·      Subject to a five-year lock-up from closing;
·      Convertible into AB InBev ordinary shares on a one for one basis after the end of that five year period;
·      Ranking equally with AB InBev ordinary shares with regards to dividends and voting rights; and
·      Director nomination rights.
 
SABMiller shareholders who elect for the partial share alternative will receive 0.483969 Restricted Shares2 and GBP 3.7788 in cash for each SABMiller share.

1 The Possible Offer will involve the formation of a new combined company (“NewCo”) expected to be incorporated in Belgium, which would acquire 100% of AB InBev. AB InBev shareholders would receive one NewCo ordinary share for each AB InBev share. References to the Restricted Shares and ordinary shares arising upon conversion are references to shares in NewCo. References to AB InBev shall be construed accordingly, where appropriate

2 In the event that elections under the partial share alternative are received for more than 326 million Restricted Shares then such elections will be reduced on a pro rata basis.


Extension of the PUSU deadline

In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, AB InBev was required, by not later than 5.00 pm on 14 October 2015, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for SABMiller in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer for SABMiller, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies.

In accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code, the Board of SABMiller has requested that the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Panel") extends the relevant deadline, as referred to above, to enable the parties to continue their talks regarding the Possible Offer. In the light of this request, an extension has been granted by the Panel and AB InBev must, by not later than 5.00 pm on 28 October 2015, either announce a firm intention to make an offer for SABMiller in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer for SABMiller, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline will only be extended with the consent of the Panel in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.

AB InBev reserves the following rights:

a)   to introduce other forms of consideration and/or to vary the composition of consideration;

b)   to implement the transaction through or together with a subsidiary of AB InBev or NewCo or a company which will become a subsidiary of AB InBev or NewCo;

c)   to make an offer (including the all-cash offer and PSA) for SABMiller at any time on less favourable terms:

(i)   with the agreement or recommendation of the Board of SABMiller;

(ii)   if a third party announces a firm intention to make an offer for SABMiller on less favourable terms; or

(iii)  following the announcement by SABMiller of a whitewash transaction pursuant to the Code; and

d)   to reduce its offer (including the all-cash offer and PSA) by the amount of any dividend that is announced, declared, made or paid by SABMiller prior to completion, save for ordinary course dividends declared or paid prior to completion, which shall not exceed USD 0.2825 per share for the period ended 30 September 2015 and a further USD 0.9375 per share for the period ended 31 March 2016 (totalling USD 1.22 per share) and shall not exceed an amount to be agreed between AB InBev and SABMiller in respect of periods thereafter (which shall be disclosed in any announcement of a firm intention to make an offer).

The announcement does not constitute an offer or impose any obligation on AB InBev to make an offer, nor does it evidence a firm intention to make an offer within the meaning of the Code. There can be no certainty that a formal offer will be made.

A further announcement will be made when appropriate.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Fawkes85 on October 13, 2015, 11:50:07 am
Just a thought - might be worth picking up some Taste and/or Aspen for the long term.

You might want to stay away from Taste especially if you are a dividend man. They discussed it on JSEDirect last week. Or maybe the week before. Anyways, getting the operating licences for Dominoes and Starbucks means Taste will be spending A LOT OF CAPITAL over the next couple of years opening HUNDREDS of franchises for the two chains. Taste was very open about the fact that they will not be very profitable for a while.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on October 13, 2015, 01:49:23 pm
AB InBev would agree to a reverse break fee of USD 3 billion payable to SABMiller in the event that the transaction fails to close as a result of the failure to obtain regulatory clearances or the approval of AB InBev shareholders.
Just thought I would highlight that from my earlier post.

(Final offer date now extended to 28/10/15)
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on October 13, 2015, 03:49:25 pm
For 41% of stock AB InBev is offering a partial-share alternative, essentially a combination of cash and stock translating into a lower per-share price of £ 39.03. The alternative was devised for SABMiller's two largest shareholders, Altria Group Inc. and the Santo Domingo family's investment vehicle BevCo, and helps them with taxation and potential accounting issues.

The latest proposal also includes a provision for SABMiller shareholders to get dividend payments, something the prior proposals didn't. SABMiller's shareholders are entitled to get up to 28 cents a share in dividends paid by the London- based brewer for the six months to Sept. 30 and a further 94 cents a share for the six month period ended March 31 next year before a possible deal is completed. That amounts to $1.22 a share and increases the amount SABMiller's shareholders get by about £ 1.3 billion.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Patrick on October 14, 2015, 11:34:53 am
Looks like the market is fairly convinced this will go through. Also heard Bruce Whitfield interviewing someone last night saying that apart from USA and China, there's pretty much no overlap in their markets, so the competition commission won't be a huge hurdle.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Broke(r) on October 14, 2015, 12:55:29 pm
From what I heard (apparently) there's about another R 100 of upside in the share, with some risk of shareholders getting nervous and bailing early... Like I did.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Broke(r) on October 15, 2015, 05:50:36 pm
I'm wondering:

If SAB on its JSE listing has already (or will soon) reach its ceiling on the anticipated deal...
and the 'mega-bru' transaction could take ages to complete...
therefore the ultimate de-listing of SAB could take ages to be finalised.
then:
with its current market cap and zero to little growth prospects in the light of the recent events already priced-in, SAB will potentially lock-out a large percentage of many indexes with dead weight (think STX40, STXIND), causing some sideways action which the rest of the counters will have to try and somehow outperform...

So buying into one of these indexes today, might have some very unsatisfactory performance due to the sheer amount of potential non-performing SAB...

Or am I completely wrong?

Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on November 04, 2015, 10:42:42 am
Deadline for final offer now extended to 5pm on November 11th.
Title: Re: SAB
Post by: Moonraker on January 09, 2016, 04:05:23 pm

5.2      The JSE has granted AB InBev a secondary listing by way of introduction, in terms of
          the fast-track listing process, of all its issued Ordinary Shares on the Main Board of the
          exchange operated by the JSE in the "Consumer – Food & Beverages – Beverages -
          Brewers" sector, under the abbreviated name "AB InBev", share code "ANB" and
          ISIN BE0003793107 with effect from the commencement of trade on the Listing Date.

14.    SALIENT DATES RELATING TO THE LISTING

       The salient dates relating to the Listing are set out below:

       Release of the Pre-listing Announcement via the Stock          8 January 2016
       Exchange News Service of the JSE ("SENS")
       Publication of the Pre-listing Announcement in the South       12 January 2016
       African press
       Anticipated Listing Date and commencement of trade on          9:00 on 15 January 2016
       the Main Board of the exchange operated by the JSE


       Note: The above times are South African standard time. The above times and dates are
       subject to change. Any such change will be notified via SENS.

15.3       South African resident shareholders that dispose of their Ordinary Shares listed on the
           exchange operated by the JSE will be subject to either income tax (in the case of share
           dealers) or capital gains tax (in the case of capital investors). The merger of AB InBev
           into Newco in line with the terms of the Transaction will constitute a disposal for South
           African resident shareholders in terms of South African tax law, and therefore would
           trigger the payment of the aforementioned taxes by South African resident shareholders
           on completion of the merger, subject to any specific exemptions that may otherwise
           apply to such shareholders.