Author Topic: My Beginner's Portfolio Blog(Experiment)  (Read 30322 times)

Fawkes85

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My Beginner's Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« on: September 03, 2015, 02:36:03 pm »
Reading about all your blogs, experiments and pulverized sandboxes have inspired me to do my own. So starting today I will begin my own hoping to hear your thoughts and opinions as we go along. So here's the plan:

I will make use of a core/satellite approach to build my portfolio. The DIVTRX will be my core and it will make up 50% of my portfolio. As for the the satellites I will make use of Mr Brown's Lazy Trading System with the following ETFs:

STXIND                    DBXUS
STXFIN                     DBXUK
STXRES                    DBXEU
RMBMID                   DBXJP
PTXSPY

As things stand at present I own some shares in the DIVTRX and an equal amount of shares in NFGOVI. I will dump the NFGOVI in due time. At current prices I will be making a loss and I would like to at least break even. I have enough cash on hand to buy more DIVTRX shares to bring its share up to 50% of my portfolio and I won't be getting any buy signals from the LTS any time soon. Thus I am in no hurry to sell the NFGOVI shares. I can wait it out and wait for the prices to go up a little before I sell.

I will make a post every time I buy as well as every Wednesday when I will be reviewing all my signals on the LTS. At the end of every month I hope to indicate by how much my portfolio has grown  :D or shrunk  :wall:

So just to recap, as of right now this is how things stand:

DIVTRX 15.71%

NFGOVI 28.38%

Cash 55.91%

Portfolio growth since inception: -6.59%  :wall:
« Last Edit: September 16, 2015, 07:44:56 am by Fawkes85 »

Nivek

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Re: My Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2015, 02:45:08 pm »
I like these, will be following this and MRDiv's 888 blog. I'm very curious to see how the lazy trading system works for you. Have you thought about trying it in the game?

jaDEB

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Re: My Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2015, 04:00:28 pm »
I also like,  :TU: , keep it up.
jaDEB

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Fawkes85

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Re: My Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2015, 04:05:10 pm »
I like these, will be following this and MRDiv's 888 blog. I'm very curious to see how the lazy trading system works for you. Have you thought about trying it in the game?

I only started playing the game 2 or 3 days ago so no. I think for this year I am just gonna muck about on the game then give the LTS a try when we start fresh next year.

Fawkes85

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Re: My Beginners Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2015, 07:31:44 am »
So it is Wednesday and as promised I will make a post each Wednesday to review my positions on all the satellites regarding the Lazy Trading System. I know it is early and the markets haven't even opened yet but I am 7 hours ahead from you guys in SA and once the markets open I will be busy working and I won't be done until around 13:00 SA time. As I am using FNB Investor I need to make sure I get my trades in early enough as with FNB Investor the brokerage fee shoots up from 0.6% to 2% if my trades go through after 15:00.

I also thought it would be a good idea to explain to people how the LST work just in case they are interested. It's very simple. You take a chart of the ETF and look at the following indicators:

1. Is the 30 day EMA above the 60 day EMA?
2. Is the price of the ETF above the 15 day EMA?
3. Wait a week. If the price has gone up from a week before buy. If it is flat or down wait another week.

I have, however, added another indicator. The 15 day EMA needs to be above the 30 day EMA. I have back tested the LST going back 5 years for all the ETFs I am using the LST for and I found that to be a necessary indicator. So this is where we stand:

STXIND: 30EMA not above 60EMA. Check back next week.

STXFIN: 30EMA not above 60EMA. Check back next week.

STXRES: 30EMA not above 60EMA. Check back next week.

DBXUS: 30EMA above 60EMA. 15EMA above 30EMA. Price above 15EMA. If it is up next week I will buy.

DBXUK: 30EMA not above 60EMA. Check back next week.

DBXJP: 30EMA above 60EMA. 15EMA not above 30EMA. Check back next week.

DBXEU: 30EMA above 60EMA. 15EMA not above 30EMA. Check back next week.

RMBMID: 30EMA not above 60EMA. Check back next week.

PTXSPY: 30EMA above 60EMA. 15EMA not above 30EMA. Check back next week.

As for the rest of the portfolio, I am still waiting for the NFGOVI to go up. If it is not up by next week Tuesday I will have to bite the bullet and take the loss as I will most probably need the cash to buy DBXUS. Used up all my cash to buy DIVTRX on Monday. Went over my alloted 50% but it was so bloody cheap I couldn't help myself. Will either scale back to 50% or will not buy anymore when I add cash to my portfolio in the future.

Portfolio make-up:

DIVTRX 70.08%  ::)

NFGOVI 28.59%

Cash 1.33%

gcr

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Re: My Beginners Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2015, 08:44:55 am »
Without "reigning on your parade" - what is your objective with this portfolio - investment or trading. If trading then you need to factor in that your profits/losses will be subject to tax at your current tax rate (or higher/lower) dependent on income derived from hopefully profits. In essence profits on shares sold will swell your current income and your tax will be determined based on your total income irrespective of source.
If investing then ETF generally only pay out quarterly so you may have to time your sales to ensure that you get the dividends and you have to hold the EFT for 3 years not to be deemed a trader
As a final word of advice keep meticulous records of your transactions (run a spreadsheet in need) if you are going to trade there is nothing more daunting than getting a SARS audit
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein

Moneypenny

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Re: My Beginners Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2015, 09:10:23 am »
Interesting post, looking forward to read about your experience, good luck.

Patrick

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Re: My Beginners Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2015, 09:41:07 am »
Are there sell indicators too or is it just market entry points you identify?

Fawkes85

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Re: My Beginners Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2015, 10:16:28 am »
Without "reigning on your parade" - what is your objective with this portfolio - investment or trading. If trading then you need to factor in that your profits/losses will be subject to tax at your current tax rate (or higher/lower) dependent on income derived from hopefully profits. In essence profits on shares sold will swell your current income and your tax will be determined based on your total income irrespective of source.
If investing then ETF generally only pay out quarterly so you may have to time your sales to ensure that you get the dividends and you have to hold the EFT for 3 years not to be deemed a trader
As a final word of advice keep meticulous records of your transactions (run a spreadsheet in need) if you are going to trade there is nothing more daunting than getting a SARS audit

I am here to invest and maybe trade a little bit to just to keep it interesting. With DIVTRX I am most definitely going long. Very long. Will be holding my position with the DIVTRX for at least 5 years. As for the satellites I chose the Lazy Trading System exactly because it is more of an investment system with a little bit of trading. The man who I got the system from is Simon Brown and using the LTS he held a position in STXIND for more than 5 years. He only exited the position recently. Other than that I do not live in SA. I pay my income taxes where I currently live which makes me exempt from paying income taxes in SA. I am taking note of every buy and sell I make. Don't know how to use Excel so I got a rudimentary table going on Word. Every single buy and sell goes into it.

@Patrick I have no idea how you guys get two quotes in one post so couldn't quote you in here but yes, there are sell indicators. If you want to be really defensive you sell when the price hits the 15EMA. If you want to be more aggressive you sell when the price hits the 30EMA. As Mr Brown has put it, and in my personal experiences I agree, it is better to leave it until it gets to the 30EMA. It can get to the 15EMA pretty easily and then within one or two days it bounces right back up again. So you can imagine. It goes below the 15EMA and you sell, then it goes above it again which means you get your trigger to buy again. You will end up just selling and buying and selling and buying losing a lot of money.

Qess

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Re: My Beginners Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2015, 09:23:20 pm »
Patrick, you can find an explanation of the LTS here: http://www.justonelap.com/webinarDetail.asp?intWebinarID=158

Fawkes, have you thought about Simon's Momentum Portfolio? I know Simon's all cash at the moment on the LTS, but at least there's buying happening in the MP: http://www.justonelap.com/webinarDetail.asp?intWebinarID=283

I like the results he's shown for the mid caps so far in the MP.

Fawkes85

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Re: My Beginners Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2015, 10:30:07 am »
Yeah, I am all cash on the LTS right now too. Or well I am all NFGOVI on the LTS. I have not looked at his momentum portfolio yet but will give it a gander.

Fawkes85

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Re: My Beginners Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2015, 07:44:32 am »
Ok, it's that time of the week to see how my triggers are doing on the Lazy Trading System. Before I do that, however, I need to talk about this Beginner's Portfolio of mine. Since it is a beginner's portfolio there will be some changes made as I go along and find my feet. Some will be big and some will be small. Today will be one of those times. I have decided on two changes. One big and one not so big.

So first the big one. For many years now, even back when I was a student and never thought I will actually have the money for it, I have been wanting to be invested in real estate. Now I am not gonna take you on my 10 year journey to explain to you how I have come to my current decision, but I have decided the best way for me to go is to invest in a REIT. I have been looking at Redefine since the beginning of the year and found out about Redefine International(RPL) 2 or 3 weeks ago. I like RPL because it gives me the exposure to real estate that I want plus the international exposure I want. So I invested in it. RPL will form part of my core with DIVTRX making up 25% and RPL making up the other 25%.

If you remember from last week, DVTRX made up more 70% of my portfolio and I was going to decide whether I will sell some of it to bring its share down or I will hold onto those shares and just not buy anymore as I add more cash to my portfolio. Well I decided on the latter. I will keep the shares and only buy RPL and LTS shares until DIVTRX's share of my portfolio has gone down to 25%.

Change number 2 involves the satellites. Looking at all the ETFs that make up my satellites I have come to the realisation that there are just too many. I am sure the more experienced investors of you looked at that from the start and felt the same. Right now it is simply true. If I were to get a buy signal from the LTS on all those ETFs I will simply just not have the cash to actually buy into all of them. Thus the following ETFs have been cut:

STXRES: I have never been all that interested in being invested in resources. They are just too volatile and this is especially true for SA resources. Only added this ETF because it is one of the 4 or 5 ETFs that Mr Brown uses the LTS for. But I don't care so much for it so it is gone.

PTXSPY: Since I now get my exposure to real estate through RPL I have no need for the PTXSPY.

DBXUK: This was not an easy choice but I had to dump one of the DBX trackers. Whenever I will buy into any of the satellites, it will not be with ridiculously large sums of money. Thus with the DBXUK at over R120 a share I just felt I could get more bang for my buck with the other DBX trackers.

I might drop another 1 or 2 in the future but that's all for now. As for the rest of them, this is where we stand:

STXIND: 30EMA not above 60EMA. Check back next week.

STXFIN: 30EMA not above 60EMA. Check back next week.

DBXUS: As mentioned last week, if the price is up I will buy. Well we are way down and the price is barely above the 15EMA. So no buy. Maybe next week.

DBXJP: 30EMA above 60EMA. 15EMA not above 30EMA. Check back next week.

DBXEU: 30EMA above 60EMA. 15EMA not above 30EMA. Check back next week.

RMBMID: 30EMA not above 60EMA. Check back next week.

Still haven't managed to dump the NFGOVI. The price keeps hovering between R48 and R48.50 which it has been doing for all three months I have owned it. Really regret investing in this pile of crap of an ETF. Luckily I haven't gotten any buy signals on the LTS yet so I can still hold onto it for a little longer and hope it goes up a bit. If it goes above R48.60 I am selling. At that price I won't break even anymore but it won't be such a huge loss.

Portfolio:

DIVTRX 62.82%

RPL 9.59%

NFGOVI 25.65%

Cash 1.94%

P.S. The reason the DIVTRX have gone down from 70% to 62% is because I added cash to my portfolio which I then used to buy the RPL shares. As I explained I will do above. ;)

Nivek

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Re: My Beginner's Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2015, 08:45:24 am »
Interesting, I'll have to do some reading on RPL. Do you know what the 5 year returns were like, and what the current yield is?

Fawkes85

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Re: My Beginner's Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2015, 10:30:53 am »
Interesting, I'll have to do some reading on RPL. Do you know what the 5 year returns were like, and what the current yield is?

5 year returns(dividends not included) was roughly 40%

Current yield is 5.4%. Take this with a pinch of salt though cause I am still new to investing and I might be providing you with the wrong numbers. Maybe some more experienced investors out there can answer these questions better?

EDIT: The 40% returns were over 2 years and not 5 years. I pressed the 5 year button and then did the calculations without actually looking at the dates. Even though I chose a 5 year chart RPL has only been listed on the JSE since 2013 so that is the furthest back my chart would go.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2015, 09:45:26 am by Fawkes85 »

Nios

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Re: My Beginner's Portfolio Blog(Experiment)
« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2015, 09:01:33 pm »
What software or website are you using to monitor the 3 MA's for triggers? Take it your using the monthly MA's and not the daily?